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Why Haven’t Tariffs Boosted Inflation? This Theory Is Gaining Traction

New research suggests the actual tariff rates are well below what economists have suspected


The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused inflation to surge. The phenomenon has puzzled economists, some of whom suspect that companies have so far simply been reluctant to pass along the extra costs to their customers.

But another argument for the limited impact is gaining traction: that tariffs being paid by importers are lower than advertised.

In a new study, Barclays economists went through census data to see what tariffs importers actually paid in May. They found that the weighted-average tariff rate—the average of all tariffs, adjusted for import volume from each country—that month was around 9%. That number is well below the 12% rate that they had previously estimated based on White House announcements, and far less than what some others have estimated.

The reason is that more than half of U.S. imports were duty-free, the Barclays study says, and because many U.S. companies and consumers bought less from countries with higher levies, particularly China.

“The real surprise in the U.S. economy’s resilience lies not in its reaction to tariffs but that the rise in the effective tariff rate has been more modest than commonly thought,” the Barclays report says.

JPMorgan economists argue that actual tariff rates in June were lower than headline averages suggest because importers switched to countries with lower tariffs or to domestic producers.

These lower effective tariff rates could help explain why consumer prices haven’t risen as rapidly as some analysts feared. The impact of tariffs has been a charged topic. Trump this week asserted that tariffs haven’t caused inflation and called on Goldman Sachs to replace an economist who had predicted price increases.

The new tariffs raised $58.5 billion in revenue between January and June, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. And inflation has crept up in recent months, with prices of imported goods such as furniture ticking higher. The latest inflation readings remain well above the Federal Reserve’s benchmark of 2% year over year. In July, wholesale prices rose at the sharpest monthly rate in three years and well above economists’ forecasts.

But the overall inflation picture in the first six months of the year hasn’t been as ugly as many feared it would be in the wake of President Trump’s tariff hikes.

Barclays research suggests that inflation hasn’t increased that much partly because the U.S. hasn’t collected tariffs on many goods—for now. In June, just 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs, thanks to myriad exemptions, according to the bank’s analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

Goods like pharmaceuticals, certain electronics and semiconductors and many imports from Canada and Mexico were exempted from Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. There are also partial exemptions for goods with at least 20% U.S.-made components.

Ultimately, however, the actual rates importers pay are likely to rise in months to come, according to Barclays. Many of the existing loopholes could close. Trump has threatened 250% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and 100% tariffs on semiconductors. The White House has also said that as of later this month, it is suspending the de minimis exemption, which allows duty-free shipments to the U.S. as long as they are valued at $800 or less.

Others using different methodologies have pegged the tariffs at much higher rates. The Budget Lab at Yale, a policy-research center, for instance, estimates that U.S. consumers currently face effective average tariffs of 18.6%, down from 21.9% in late May. The lab’s director of economics, Ernie Tedeschi, says his research also shows that the real average rate companies actually pay has been lower.

Ultimately, Barclays expects weighted-average tariffs to end up at around 15%, up from a current 10% and 2.5% last year. Other economists calculate even higher rates. That could mean much of the likely tariff hit is still in the future.

Overall tariffs paid have also been lower than headline rates suggest because many U.S. companies are importing fewer goods facing high duties, particularly from China.

But part of that, too, might be temporary. U.S. companies imported more early in the year to get ahead of tariffs, leading to lower imports in the following months. As inventories shrink, imports are likely to rise again. “Its unclear if you can decouple from China that strongly, that quickly,” says Mark Cus, an economist at Barclays.

Barry Roth, who imports used cars from Canada for U.S. dealers, says he imported around 1,000 cars a month on average last year through November. In January, that surged to almost 1,500 as car dealers tried to get ahead of tariffs. Now, as many cars from Canada face 25% levies, he says he is lucky to import 400 vehicles a month.

But as dealers sell down their expanded inventories, they will either have to pay the tariffs or be left with fewer cars to sell. Either way, he says, prices are likely to rise. “It’s not going to happen tomorrow, it’s not going to happen next week, but it will ratchet up,” Roth says.
Meanwhile, more companies say they are increasingly likely to pass tariffs on to their customers in the months ahead.

Many companies were slow to raise prices while they were waiting to see where levies would ultimately end up. Now that final tariff rates are becoming more clear, economists expect a steady trickle of companies asking their customers to pay more. “Companies are being strategic about their price hikes,” says Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America.

Randy Carr’s Florida-based company World Emblem owns a business that imports from China, Vietnam and Cambodia uniform patches for U.S. law enforcement and first responders. Initially, he says, he didn’t raise prices in response to tariffs, as the announced levies kept changing, and he didn’t want to alienate customers by constantly adjusting his prices. Paying the tariffs cost his company more than $1 million, he says.

Now he feels more confident about where tariffs will end up, and his company is raising prices on the East Asian-made patches by 6% to 25% starting in September. “We just don’t see the sense of waiting anymore,” he says.

O Presidente dos EUA, que está a caminho do Alasca para se encontrar com o presidente russo Vladimir Putin, indicou ainda que poderia alterar as tarifas sobre o aço, que neste momento estão nos 50%.

O encontro entre Vladimir Putin e Donald Trump é amplamente aguardado em todo. As principais reações deverão acontecer na segunda-feira, mas é para o médio e longo prazo que analistas e investidores estão a olhar.

US wholesale prices jump 3.3% as Trump tariffs hit economy

Rise in the Producer Price Index was the highest since February

US wholesale prices jumped in July, rising 3.3 per cent from a year earlier, in the clearest sign yet that Donald Trump’s tariffs are seeping through to the American economy.

The rise in the Producer Price Index, which tracks what domestic US producers charge for their goods and services, was the biggest jump since February.

The reading was well above June’s 2.4 per cent annual gain and the 2.5 per cent rise expected by economists polled by Bloomberg.

The two-year Treasury yield and the US dollar, both of which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose following the PPI report.
This is a developing story

O secretário do Tesouro americano defende que, por agora, os exemplos da Nvidia e da AMD são únicos, mas deixou a porta aberta para que outras empresas americanas só possam fazer a exportação de produtos mediante uma partilha da receita com o governo.

BearManBull Escreveu:Para mim subsidio de desemprego eram geridos por seguradoras, quem abusa ficava sem nada.

A inflação na maior economia mundial avançou 0,2% em cadeia, em linha com o que antecipavam os analistas.

A decisão, avançada pela CNBC, foi tomada após o Presidente norte-americano ter dito que as negociações 'estão a correr bem'. Taxas atuais - de 30% para a China e de 10% para os EUA - mantêm-se por três meses enquanto os dois países trabalham num acordo definitivo.

djovarius Escreveu:Boas, nova semana!!

Tal como na China, teremos robots humanóides, não farão falta quase nenhuns imigrantes...

1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour: MS

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley estimates that a single humanoid robot costing $5 per hour could match the productivity of two human workers earning $25 per hour, creating an economic value of roughly $200,000 per unit over its working life.

The bank’s analysts see cost and safety as the key drivers of adoption for AI-enabled machines, echoing historical patterns with other transformative technologies.

In its latest note on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Morgan Stanley said the proliferation of humanoid and other robotic systems will follow the same rules that governed the adoption of the wheel, electricity, and the internet.

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating a net present value (NPV) of approximately $200k/humanoid,” analysts led by Adam Jonas said in a note.

The analysts also highlighted potential cost efficiencies in transport, suggesting that a robot-shaped car could cut the cost per mile of a ride-share vehicle to less than $0.20 — about one-tenth that of a human-driven equivalent.

They added that an autonomous electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft could generate the same revenue as 15 ride-share vehicles.

Morgan Stanley maintained its “Overweight” rating on Tesla, reiterating the company as a top pick.

The note framed the development of humanoids and embodied AI within a broader shift toward what it calls “Robonomics,” in which machines carry out increasingly complex and economically valuable tasks.

Over time, the marginal cost of a personal humanoid robot — likened to a “C-3PO” — could approach the cost of powering it, the analysts said.

Last month, Tesla signed a $16.5 billion agreement to source chips from Samsung Electronics (KS:005930), with production set for Samsung’s new plant in Taylor, Texas.

The next-generation AI6 chips are intended for self-driving vehicles and the Optimus humanoid robot, and could support wider AI uses. While the deal may aid Samsung’s struggling contract chip business, it is not expected to speed Tesla’s EV sales or robotaxi rollout.

djovarius Escreveu:Bom fds a todos, ou férias se for o caso!!

Pois é, estas notícias que o Marco tem vindo a postar remetem para a teoria do copo meio cheio / meio vazio.
Fala-se em recessão, fala-se em crescimento baixo. Eu mantenho o que vejo no dia a dia e falando com gente de todo o mundo... temos uma clima económico de estagnação. Mas se é assim, porque os mercados sobem?? É que as grandes empresas conseguem aguentar bem o seu próprio crescimento dentro de expetativas mais baixas. No campo das tecnológicas, isso é por demais evidente.

Por isso temos, na semana finda, o regresso dos touros de ouro desde logo nos Nasdaqs e no próprio Ouro. Outros ativos estão lá próximo também.

Assim, o SPX ganha 1,8% na semana (o VIX perdeu 22% e volta a 15 pontos) e o Nasdaq foi fantástico com alta de 2,8% e o tal maior fecho semanal de sempre, um touro de ouro que pode ainda avançar mais. O DAX sobe aqui 2,6% mas ainda não está em cima de máximos.
Em geral, houve rotação de capital, com vendas (não exagerdas) de OT e compra de ativos de risco.
O ouro voltou a brilhar com mais de 2% de alta, pela primeira vez negociou nos 3.500 USD / onça - medido em €€€ ainda precisa de avançar mais um pouco para ir a máximos...
A prata sobe 4% mas ainda está longe dos máximos do ano, enquanto o petróleo perde 4,4% na semana, ficando mais próximo do suporte. Isto é visto como antecipação de uma recessão, até porque as agrícolas também têm andado muito fracas. Trigo, milho e soja, todos em modo de perdas...

O EUR/USD finalmente recuperou, mas só se aprecia 0,4% na semana - eu não dou grande crédito nem a touros nem a ursos nesta fase.
USD/JPY avança umas décimas. Aqui é o mesmo, um par que não consegue sustentar ganhos, mas conseguiu estancar perdas e recuperar. Há que esperar para ver...

Finalmente, a cripto loucura (volatilidade: depois de perdas, o BTC ganha 3,7% em sete dias, mas é o ETH que está a fazer história, só hoje avança mais de 8%, o que dá 21% em sete dias e 60% em 30 dias Está agora a tentar romper a última resistência até aos máximos históricos de 2021.
ADA sobe 14% e o Solana 11% - as mais pequenas sobem mais agora do que o Bitcoin.

Enfim, não falta liquidez em quase nenhum mercado...

Abraço
dj