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Eagle,

Achas que o facto do Benfica ganhar hoje o Fenerbahçe, vai aumentar mais a crise na Turquia?

Uma vez que vamos jogar agora com o PAOK e a Grécia ainda está em crise, não achas que esta conjuntura irá pressionar o índice Indiano?

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Lira Briefly Erases Monday Losses As Turkey Halts Mark-To-Market Accounting"


"Endless headlines from Erdogan and his son-in-law this morning did nothing to shift the Lira but the beleaguered currency is bouncing back to unchanged from Friday after reports that lenders will be allowed to restructure loans with no mark-to-market impact to their balance sheets... Just like America did in 2009.

And the Lira is 'fixed'..."

"Specifically, as Bloomberg reports that Turkish banking regulator BDDK has approved new rules on loan restructurings. Banks can extend maturities, refinance, lend new loans, seek new collateral and sell debtors’ assets against receivables under the new regulation which will allow lenders to temporarily (there's that word again) suspend reflecting the negative impact of mark-to-market security losses on their capital adequacy ratio calculations"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... accounting

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Crise turca continua a "fazer estragos" mas não impede recordes da Apple e Amazon

As bolsas norte-americanas encerraram no vermelho, penalizadas pela crise que se vive na Turquia, numa altura em que a forte desvalorização da lira e a subida dos juros soberanos do país têm contagiado negativamente os restantes mercados. Nem o bom desempenho das tecnológicas conseguiu ofuscar estes receios mas ajudou a manter o Nasdaq praticamente à tona."

"A lira turca continua a estabelecer novos mínimos históricos, sobretudo devido à incapacidade de o banco central do país controlar a inflação e em resultado das preocupações em torno da guerra diplomática com os Estados Unidos.
As medidas do banco central tomadas hoje para travar a queda da sua moeda não foram suficientes e a depreciação da lira acabou por arrastar as divisas dos emergentes. Os receios em torno da Turquia estão a afastar os investidores das acções e a favorecer o dólar.

Além disso, as bolsas também têm estado a ser penalizadas pelo facto de muitas cotadas terem exposição à Turquia, como é o caso da banca.

Tal como na Europa, nos Estados Unidos foram as acções do sector financeiro que mais sofreram com os receios em torno da Turquia."

"Os investidores continuam bastante sensíveis a quaisquer riscos num sector que perdeu milhares de milhões com a crise na Grécia e que estão ainda a caminho de recuperarem a rentabilidade pré-crise financeira de 2008"


http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//mercado ... _Destaques

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Strategists see 4 ways out of Turkey’s currency crisis "

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strat ... ARKETWATCH

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Global Stocks 'Miraculously' Brush Off Emerging Markets Massacre "

"Obviously Turkey led the charge... CBRT desperately defended the 7.00 line in the sand for USDTRY.."
"Turkish stocks were hammered until authorities banned short-selling and BIST-100 bounced…"
"But Turkey CDS soared to its highest since Oct 2008..."
" The South Africa Rand flash-crashed last night and then faded back after its rebound on idiosyncratic budget concerns and EM contagion anxiety"
"Argentina's Peso was pummeled, with a modest bounce after BCRA hiked rates 500bps to 45%!!

*ARGENTINA SAYS TURKEY SITUATION ADDED COMPLICATIONS"
"Brazilian Real plunged, signaling EM panic…"
"Colombian Peso was pounded... But ECHAVARRIA SAYS COP AT 3,000/USD IS OPTIMAL LEVEL"
EM FX caught down to EM Debt as EM Stocks are trying to ignore it...


"
China stocks were miraculously bid after the lunch break - after tumbling in early trading…"

"European stocks ended lower but were ramped on rumors (denied) that Pastor Brunson was to be released…"
"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... s-massacre

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"A Solitary Rate Hike Can't Save the Lira Now


Erdogan will need to back down and set the central bank free."

"Cost of Turkish Exposure

Spanish bank BBVA, which owns almost half of Turkish lender Garanti Bank, has seen its share price drop almost 10% since Thursday"


"If a battle can’t be won, don’t fight it.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be well advised to recognize that his campaign for the lira was lost before it even started. His rhetoric in recent days on "economic war" being waged against his country has only fanned the flames.

Though the central bank has at least shown it’s not asleep – its move over the weekend to loosen banks’ reserve requirements is a welcome step – the measures have not had much of an effect. Tinkering with liquidity does not address the main issue.

Stop Digging

All of Erdogan's economic and political statements have lately only dug a deeper hole for the lira"

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... e-lira-now

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"These Are the Five European Banks in Focus on Lira: Street Wrap"


"Effects mainly pertain to five lenders, with BBVA most exposed


As of now, limited disruptions for funding activity seen "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... treet-wrap

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Turkey's Collapse Sinks Emerging Markets on ‘Manic Monday’



Turkish measures could be too little, too late, analysts say


Argentine century bond yield surges to 10% as peso tumbles "




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nic-monday

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Emerging market currencies hit multi-year lows as Turkish sell-off spreads



•Turkish assets are under pressure over concerns about U.S. sanctions and the economy's management.
•A sell off in the Turkish lira has led investors to sell other emerging market currencies.
•The Turkish finance ministry and treasury has promised steps to support its economy and banks."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey- ... r-low.html

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Turkey Could Create A Larger Crisis Than Greece "

"However, the lira depreciation was something that was not just accepted by the government but encouraged. Handouts in fresh-printed liras were given to pensioners in order to increase votes for the current government, subsidies in rapidly devaluing lira soared by more than 20% (agriculture, fuel, tourism industry) as the government tried to compensate the loss of tourism revenues due to security concerns with subsidies and grants.
Loss of foreign currency reserves ensued, but the government soldiered on promoting excessive debt and borrowing. Fiscal deficits soared, and the rapidly devaluing lira led to a rising amount of loans in US dollars.
This is the typical flaw of monetarists, they believe monetary sovereignty shields the country from external shocks and loans in foreign currencies soar because no one wants to lend in a constantly-debased currency at affordable rates. Then the central bank raises rates but the monetary hole keeps rising as the money supply continues to grow to pay for handouts in local currency.
Now the risk is rising for the rest of Europe.
On one hand, the exposure of eurozone banks like BBVA, BNP, Unicredit to Turkey is very relevant. Between 15% and 20% of all assets."

Like Argentina before, raising rates too late does not calm the market when the risk is capital controls and a bank run. Raising rates to 18% does not encourage anyone in Turkey to keep money in the bank when the risk is to lose all the money. Rates went from 8 to 17.5% and the crisis worsened. It will not stop because of slightly hgher rates."

"Because the problem of Turkey is monetary and fiscal. Turkey will need a massive adjustment program and a credible opening of its institutions and markets to attract capital and restore growth. Unfortunately, the route seems to be more government control of institutions, less investment security and deepening the crisis blaming the inexistent external enemy.
Erdogan is fighting against a very dangerous economic foe. Himself.
For Europe, this is a devil’s alternative:
Bailing out Turkey will give further control to Erdogan and increase the imbalances of the economy while imposing higher restrictions to freedom.
Not bailing out Turkey, on the other hand, would cause a much larger crisis than Greece was. Because too many eurozone funds and bank investments have been directed towards Turkey as a way to get access to some growth and inflation. What they got was a risk of capital controls and currency debasement.
The biggest risk for Europe will be to try to cover this mess with some aid in exchange for refugee and border support. Because what is already a relevant risk, but contained, will likely balloon to unmanageable proportions."


"The collapse of Turkey was an accident waiting to happen and is fully self-inflicted.
It is yet another evidence of the trainwreck that monetarists cause in economies. Those that say that “a country with monetary sovereignty can issue all the currency it wants without risk of default ” are wrong yet again. Like in Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Venezuela, monetary sovereignty means nothing without strong fundamentals to back the currency."

www.zerohedge.com

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

usd try chart.PNG (38.61 KiB) Visualizado 8912 vezes

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"'What happens in Turkey won't stay in Turkey': Why this debt crisis could be different "

"•Turkey's currency crisis is reminiscent of other debt emergencies across the globe, but differs in some key ways.
•Whereas other crises have been fueled primarily by government debt, Turkey's is more of a corporate story, making a buyout more problematic.
•There's still considerable optimism that Turkey's problems won't trigger global contagion. "Risks tend to be centered on lenders that get caught up in financial crisis," said John Stoltzfus, CIO at Oppenheimer. "


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/what-ha ... is-co.html

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Russell Napier: "Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time"

"Regular readers of the Fortnightly will know that The Solid Ground has long forecast a major debt default in Turkey. More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held by the global financial system. That is a large financial hole in a still highly leveraged system. That scale of loss will surpass the scale of loss suffered by the creditors of Bear Stearns and while Lehman’s did have liabilities of US$619bn, it has paid more than US$100bn to its unsecured creditors alone since its bankruptcy."


"It is the nature of EM lending that there is little in the way of liquid assets to realize; they are predominantly denominated in a currency different from the liability, and also title has to be pursued through the local legal system. Turkey will almost certainly be the largest EM default of all time, should it resort to capital controls as your analyst expects, but it could also be the largest bankruptcy of all time given the difficulty of its creditors in recovering any assets. So the events of last Friday represent only the end of the beginning for Turkey. The true nature of the scale of its default and the global impacts of that default are very much still to come."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... t-all-time

[EAGLE BULLMARKET]

"Fecho dos mercados: Turquia contamina mercados globais

Num dia de perdas generalizadas nas bolsas europeias, arrastadas pela crise turca, os títulos da dívida portuguesa subiram mais de oito pontos base para um máximo de quase dois meses. O ouro também não tem o melhor registo, descendo a mínimos de quase ano e meio. "

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//mercado ... _Destaques