A survey for the 2024 Munich Security Conference shows people fearing climate-change-driven migration ahead of the threat from Russia. However, they are also worried about cyberattacks and the impact of AI.
In a Munich Security Index survey published ahead of last year's conference, Russia's war on Ukraine was rated as the biggest threat to security, particularly in the G7 countries, which includes seven of the world's advanced economies.
But in the current survey — for which the MSC questioned 12,000 people in the G7 countries, as well as Brazil, India, China and South Africa — "migration through war and climate change" is now seen as even more important than the prospect of an aggressive Russia. It appears those surveyed in October and November 2023 have grown accustomed to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
According to the survey, the risk perception of a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific between China and Taiwan has risen sharply. Fear of an increasingly self-confident China has made a big leap — especially in Japan, followed by India, the US, Germany and France.
In the G7 countries (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US), "large segments of the populations[...] believe their countries will be less secure and wealthy in 10 years' time," writes Heusgen. An analysis of the survey shows that people in the G7 countries expect China and countries in the Global South to increase their power and influence, with China benefiting at the expense of the other nations.
The dramatic political shifts of the last few years are reflected in what the report calls the "macroeconomic reality." Western capital flows are being redirected from China to other partners. "Trade flows, too, are showing tentative signs of restructuring along geopolitical lines," according to the Munich Security Report, which paints a very pessimistic picture of networking in the world overall.
Nevertheless, Europe, and Germany in particular, stand out as an exception. "German companies also continue to invest heavily in China, defying Berlin's ambition to reduce its exposure," the report says. "German foreign direct investment in China remained at a near-record high in the first half of 2023."
According to the report, the increased mistrust worldwide is also reflected in the perception of danger from cyberattacks and the negative consequences of the use of artificial intelligence (AI).
"Once a driver of mutually beneficial globalization, technological progress has become a race for geopolitical dominance," the analysis claims. This is supported by the Munich Security Index survey results, according to which respondents in the US rate this threat as particularly high, followed by India.
Overall, it appears that people are becoming increasingly afraid of disinformation campaigns in the digital world.
https://amp.dw.com/en/migration-and-rus ... a-68217835