lmm Escreveu:Sobre esse Nichols que não conheço (
) reparei no texto a seguinte passagem "
The fractal pattern that forecasted this leg up...". Que tipo de análises é que ele faz e alguém talvez me possa indicar que a
fractal é que ele se refere... se for o que penso talvez me interesse saber um pouco mais
.
Obrigado,
lmm
OK, aqui fica com o texto integral, infelizmente não sei como por os graficos, mas hoje não são nada de especial.
Home on the Range
by David Nichols
The S&P 500 (SPX) moved up and through 876 yesterday, which in
the current context is bullish. I say "current", because when it
comes to this 876 level, you never know what the context is.
Since July 15th 2002 -- the date the SPX first dropped down to
tag 876 -- it has spent an incredible 25% of the trading days in
contact with this level.
More specifically, of the 182 trading days since July 15th -- 45
of them have touched 876 at some point in the session. (I
counted it out this morning bleary-eyed, so I may be off by a day
or two, but you get my point.)
[Image 1: Go to Web site to see image]
Furthermore, over this period nearly half the days have been
above this level, and half below. For nine months, the market
has lived in a well-traveled range. Nobody knows anything!
But there is a big problem with this sort of range, which
involves human nature. We get comfortable with things that are
familiar. 876 is no longer the scary level it was when we came
crashing down into it back in July. In fact, now it's a level
for bullish jubilation as we come roaring up through it -- for
the fifth time.
The VIX is reflecting this new comfort with our trading range.
It's been declining broadly over the last nine months, reflecting
investor's decreasing fear while we trade back and forth.
[Image 2: Go to Web site to see image]
What once was scary has now become routine, or even cause for
bullishness. That's not good.
This brings me again to the work of Professor Didier Sornette,
whom I've discussed before. He's a wicked smart academic --
actually a mathematician/geologist/Ph.D-type, who is pioneering a
new field dubbed "econophysics".
Professor Sornette and his associates have modeled a forecast for
the "anti-bubble regime" on the S&P 500. Essentially it's an
algorithm they've developed that models and predicts the
back-slope of a mania bubble in financial markets. If you read
their papers -- and I suggest you do if you want to learn more,
or re-but their arguments (warning: it's tough going) -- you'll
see how their models hold up extremely well in every bubble
market they studied.
(Interesting side-note: they just examined the U.S. housing
market for signs of a bubble -- and didn't find any evidence.
This is great news, as I've read their papers and books and that
would have made me nervous. But in the U.K., they are seeing
evidence of a housing bubble.)
So here's Prof. Sornette's current forecast for the S&P 500:
[Image 3: Go to Web site to see image]
Uh huh. It's not good for the bullish case. According to this,
we should see a continuation of this sideways-to-up period before
another massive cascade down, ending in 2005. Unfortunately for
those who would refute this model, it's developing pretty much
perfectly for this scenario to play out.
We've got the trading range. We could even see a further push
higher, which already looks to be underway, and is coinciding
with the lift from the war in Iraq. But the sentiment picture is
clearly getting less and less bullish for the long term.
Obviously there's no guarantee of anything in the markets. But
I've had this model in mind over the last months, and there's
nothing that has happened to dissuade me about the potential for
it to play out exactly this way. In fact, it seems to be
developing perfectly.
Just so you know.
In the short-term, we're now solidly above 876, and those who
have taken long positions are being rewarded. The fractal
pattern that forecasted this leg up holds that the market is
really only obliged to make a run up to the previous high at SPX
895, although it could go much higher. I recommend you take the
"easy money" and exit long positions on any surge towards this
895 level -- which is likely to come this morning -- and look to
re-load at lower levels.
After this morning's push, it's likely the markets will fall back
and tag -- you guessed it -- the 876 level. If it breaks all the
way back below 868, then that would wipe out the market's current
bullish vibe.
Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis
[Image 4: Go to Web site to see image]
SENTIMENT TANK: The tank drained 3% on Wednesday down to "42%
full" of negative sentiment. It remains in a down channel,
putting in lower highs and lower lows. In the current backdrop
it will likely need a steady diet of good international news to
continue draining. In that context we could see it move down
toward 25%. A move below 25% would likely require a real bull
market, complete with good fundamental news. If we get below 25%
without huge gulps of unremittingly good fundamental news, then
this market will be on in a very dangerous spot.
SHORT-TERM: The hourly gauge remains in an advance phase. That
phase may have weakened late in the day. The advance phase is
looking a little wobbly and will require a fresh surge of
bullishness. Otherwise it will expire.
MID-TERM: The mid-term gauge progressed 1 point to 10% in its
decline phase. While the gauge hasn't been yanked back up by the
short-term advance phase, it has decelerated. The Confidence
Diffusion Index (CDI) has regressed to 0 (neutral) as well. This
is why we like to wait for the gauge to gain a little traction
when it starts to create a signal. The hourly gauge will now
either give us bullish continuation or, if it rolls over, start
confirming the sell signal. If we get that short-term sell
signal, then we could be set up for our mid-term short entry. If
not, then we'll ride out the short-term long positions.
LONG-TERM: The weekly gauge rolled under into neutral on
Wednesday. The reading is actually bullish but we can't go
bullish on this gauge (except in exceptional circumstances)
intra-week. The gauge went from a bearish (red) 56% to a bullish
(green) 45%. (It has turned up by 1 point on its raw score.)
Our weekly CDI has moved from a bearish position to a slightly
bullish one. The real "tell" here will be when we see how we
look after Friday's close. This mid-week reading is pretty
provisional.
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Enviado: 4/4/2003 1:58