Antes de publicar a lista de surpresas de Doug kass para 2015, vou aqui transcrever a avaliação que ele fez das surpresas que previu para 2014:
"Below is a report card of my 15 surprises for 2014 (and the five "also ran" surprises):
Surprise No. 1: Slowing global economic growth. RIGHT
Surprise No. 2: Corporate profits disappoint. HALF RIGHT (as financial engineering buoyed earnings-per-share)
Surprise No. 3: Stock prices and price-to-earnings multiples decline. WRONG
Surprise No. 4: Bonds outperform stocks. Closed end municipal bond funds are among the best asset classes, achieving a total return of 15%. VERY RIGHT
Surprise No. 5: A number of major surprises affect individual stocks and sectors. (Starbucks falls, 3-D printing stocks halve in price, General Motors drops by 20% in 2014) More WRONG THAN RIGHT
Surprise No. 6: Volkswagen AG acquires Tesla Motors (TSLA) . WRONG
Surprise No. 7: Twitter's shares fall by 70% as a disruptive competitor appears. MORE RIGHT THAN WRONG
Surprise No. 8: Buffett names successor. WRONG
Surprise No. 9: Bitcoin becomes a roller coaster. RIGHT
Surprise No. 10: The Republican Party gains control of the Senate and maintains control of the House. Obama becomes a lame duck President incapable of launching policy initiatives. RIGHT
Surprise No. 11: Secretary Hillary Clinton bows out as a presidential candidate. WRONG
Surprise No. 12: Social unrest and riots appear in the U.S. RIGHT
Surprise No. 13: Africa becomes a new hotbed of turmoil and South Africa precipitates an emerging debt crisis. HALF RIGHT
Surprise No. 14: The next big thing? A marijuana IPO rises by more than 400% on its first day of trading WRONG
Surprise No. 15: An escalation of friction between China and Japan hints at war-like behavior between the two countries. WRONG
"Also Ran" Surprises: Crude oil trades under $75/barrel (Short Crude and Energy Stocks) RIGHT, (VIX.X) trades under 10.0 (Short VIX) RIGHT, Gold trades under $1,000 (Short GLD) DIRECTIONALLY RIGHT"
(in
www.thestreet.com)
Enviado: 22/1/2015 18:41
