Alusão ao socialismo na Constituição “já caducou”

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I always knew when I was trading on Wall Street that there was something extra to making it. There were times when something just felt right. There’s a part of our brain that sends the signals to our body, and it’s really smart. It doesn’t succumb to the mistakes of behavioral finance. - John Coates

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Our ethics are the sum of all the decisions each of us makes every day. If you want to find out how strong a company’s ethics are, don’t listen to what its people say. Watch what they do. This is even more important in our industry because everything we do is built on trust. - Visions and Values, Wells Fargo

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Hey moron, that stock you just bought was sold to you by Renaissance Technologies. Still think this is a good idea? - Michael Batnick

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We find that being exposed to equities with leverage in an uptrend and rotating into risk-free Treasury bills in a downtrend leads to significant outperformance over time. For investors and traders seeking a destination with higher returns who are willing to take more risk at the right time, systematic leverage for the long run is one way of moving there, on average. - Michael A. Gayed/Charles V. Bilello

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x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - ... (o algoritmo diz que é para cima).

Using a simple 200-day Moving Average strategy in these uptrending, Bull Market periods underperforms a buy and hold approach. If it’s not about outperforming on the upside, what is the true value using Moving Averages to “follow the
trend?” As Jeremy Siegel notes in “Stocks for the Long Run,” the “major gain of the [Moving Average] timing strategy is a reduction in risk.” The outperformance here is substantial, indicating that the Moving Average is more about downside protection than upside participation. Viewing the Moving Average as a volatility indicator more so than a trend identifier helps explain how Moving Average strategies can underperform in strong equity bull markets. If the market is in an unrelenting up phase, a decline below the Moving Average results in a sell trigger which ends up being a false positive, resulting in missing out on subsequent returns for that moment in time. Over the course of a full economic and market cycle, however, where uptrends are interrupted by periods of higher volatility, the Moving Average can help limit equity exposure to environments which most favor return generation. The key component to exploiting the Moving Average in strategy form is less about being exposed to equities above it, but rather in avoiding higher equity volatility below it. More so than that, Moving Averages can help investors mitigate the potential for loss aversion to result in sub-optimal portfolio decision making - Michael Gayed/Charles Bilello

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We propose that using widely-referenced Moving Average indicators for evaluating stock market trends can enhance absolute return and generate higher risk-adjusted performance beyond what the CAPM and Modern Portfolio Theory would argue is possible. To do this, however, we first need to dispel mistaken beliefs about leverage and Moving Averages independently to better understand exactly why a strategy which leverages or deleverages based on Moving Averages produces superior results over time. The first analysis of Moving Averages in the stock market dates all the way back to 1930.13 In their seminal work, “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends,” Edwards and Magee refer to the Moving Average as a “fascinating tool” that “has real value in showing the trend of an irregular series of figures (like a fluctuating market) more clearly.” The key component to exploiting the Moving Average in strategy form is less about being exposed to equities above it, but rather in avoiding higher equity volatility below it. When the stock market is in an uptrend (above its Moving Average), conditions favor leverage as volatility declines and there are more positive streaks in performance. When the stock market is in a downtrend (below its Moving Average), the opposite is true as volatility tends to rise. We find that being exposed to equities with leverage in an uptrend and rotating into risk-free Treasury bills in a downtrend leads to significant outperformance over time. - Michael Gayed/Charles Bilello

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O algoritmo lá se vai compondo: x -a - b - c - (gap) d - e (= d pós-gap) - ...

This week’s Barron’s cover story concerns the year-end outlook of the “top” Wall Street strategists. The subheader of the article is accidentally hilarious in its studied ambiguity: Stocks could tread water for the rest of the year—or even fall. Wall Street’s top strategists also predict only modest gains in 2017. I’m not sure if you caught that so let me paraphrase: Stocks could rise, fall or do nothing. And these are the experts. What are the rest of us to think? We watch for the wind, I suppose. Amenomaniacs all of us. - Joshua Brown

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Strong global evidence indicates that stock returns are lower on days around a full moon than on days around a new moon. The return differences are statistically and economically significant during the sample period. The positive association identified between lunar phases and stock returns suggests that it might be valuable to go beyond a rational asset pricing framework to explore investor behavior. - Kathy Yuan/Lu Zheng/Qiaoqiao Zhu

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There are people out there that put out interesting models and conveniently neglect to include one or two key variables, it is always a caveat emptor. – Linda Raschke

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O padrão continua: x-a-b-c-...

Buy and hold is strategy agnostic. There are many stock pickers that are basically buy and hold investors who make very few moves each year. It’s rare but these types of investors do still exist. - Ben Carlson

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Cont.

Who would benefit from Dow’s share price being below $53.72? Berkshire comes to mind, since it gets a $255 million annual dividend from Dow for helping finance its 2009 takeover of Rohm & Haas. Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund also helped fund the deal and owns $1 billion of Dow preferred securities. When asked, Mr. Buffett declined to comment last week on whether he or his deputies at Berkshire were shorting Dow to exert downward pressure on the stock price. - Anupreeta Das

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(cont.)
O início do padrão.

If you’re doing any kind of hedging or risk management or even diversification, the longer a bull run continues, the more of a schmuck you look like. - Joshua Brown

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Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless - Warren Buffet

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From one thing, know ten thousand things. - Miyamoto Musashi

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Quem teve a oportunidade de continuar o acompanhamento da ddd após o encerramento e a revelação do negócio nela executado pôde, na melhor das hipóteses, duplicar o investimento em pouco menos de 2 meses. Evidentes razões técnicas, uma das quais se apresenta no gráfico 2, teria justificado o encerramento da posição nesse momento. Presume-se que quem manteve o investimento estará satisfeito. Um prémio, portanto, para os não distraídos.
Para melhores esclarecimentos viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&start=1925#p1229111

"A miser grows rich by seeming poor," poet William Shenstone wrote. "An extravagant man grows poor by seeming rich." I don't think it's any more complicated than that. - Morgan Housel

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Index funds are often called “passive investments,” yet there’s nothing particularly passive about what O’Reilly and his Vanguard colleagues do all day. Joe Brennan, the head of the firm’s equity index group, likens managing an index fund to a game of darts—one in which both the player and the target are constantly moving. Money rolls into Vanguard’s funds almost every day, and that cash has to be put to work. The funds must match hundreds of small shifts in their underlying indexes, caused by corporate actions such as acquisitions and share issuances. “We have to deliver perfection every day,” Brennan says. “Sometimes you have to deliver perfection-plus.”
In theory, the best an index fund can do is the return of the benchmark minus the fund’s fees. In reality, a fund faces additional costs from trading and transactions that can widen the gap between the returns of a fund and those of its benchmark. Success or failure is measured in tiny increments. “A basis point to us is a huge deal,” O’Reilly says. How does the fund pick up the extra return? It makes some money by lending shares to short sellers. Last year it made about $95 million, or 2 basis points, from that. The rest comes from smart trading. Although Brexit was a minor event for O’Reilly and his colleagues, they were furiously busy a week earlier during the quarterly rebalancing of the Total Stock Market fund’s benchmark and other U.S. indexes. Unlike other firms, Vanguard doesn’t separate the jobs of portfolio manager and trader. A portfolio manager must know not just what to buy and sell but where to do so. “They have a much tougher job than they used to,” Bruce says, given the increased complexity of the stock market. There are a dozen stock exchanges and more than 40 pools of liquidity in which trades can be executed. O’Reilly’s friends and family back in Ireland don’t really understand what he does.

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A few years ago, my colleague Michael Batnick and I were in the midst of an immense research project in assembling one of our in-house strategies. Halfway through, I became amazed by how many variables and factors we’d been able to eliminate from our decision-making process as a result of their unreliability and inefficacy. “None of this stuff matters? Really?” I asked him. “Take a look for yourself, it’s pretty clear,” he showed me, across an ocean of Excel tables. “So why doesn’t everyone do this?” I asked, thinking about all the other firms managing a similar strategy. “I don’t know. Probably because it’s not bullshitty enough. You could never sell this to most people, too simple.” - Joshua Brown

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Men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy. – Maggie Mahar

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Comportamento tecnicamente perfeito.

Years ago, a journalist asked Charlie Munger why more investors hadn't copied Berkshire Hathaway's approach to investing. "More investors don't copy our model because our model is too simple," he said. "Most people believe you can't be an expert if it's too simple." - Morgan Housel

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Serve o gráfico da amat para apresentar um padrão de inversão de nome "Camelo". Também existe na versão bearish.
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/11/03/what-cau ... ntary.html

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...
Gáfico 2:
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Meditando sobre o que sucederá se e quando fechar o gap.

O "padrão Camelo" demonstrou toda a sua potencialidade.

"I have learned through the years that after a good run of profits in the markets, it`s very important to take a few days off as a reward. The natural tendency is to keep pushing until the streak ends. But experience has taught me that a rest in the middle of the streak can often extend it."- Martin Schwartz

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Gráfico1:
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A variação da cotação desde que foi identificado o activo.
...

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ACC vem exibindo um comportamento tecnicamente perfeito.

"O dinheiro deve estar em campo e não no banco." - Johan Cruyff

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Cont.
Falta um danoninho.

Having a clientele of “validators”, who listen to the parts of what you’re saying that appeal to them and discard the rest means that you are not actually an advisor. You’re an order-taker. Anyone can be an order-taker. - Joshua Brown

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Como a incompetência não basta...
How Political Ideology Affects Hedge Fund Performance
http://www.ai-cio.com/channel/Manager-S ... rformance/

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Cont.

I was surprised to see the futures open flat last night and trade higher this morning. But I shouldn’t have been, because a quick look at history reaffirms that events outside the market just do not get the response from stocks that you might imagine. - Michael Batnick