25 de Abril. As 27 horas e 30 minutos que fizeram a Revolução

[O Alquimista]

No bastard ever made money in the market by blowing up his account. He won by making some other dumb bastard blow up his. - Boris Schlossberg

[O Alquimista]

It only took 8 years from the financial crisis for us to hand the country over to real estate moguls, hedge funds and Goldman Sachs. - Joshua Brown

[O Alquimista]

Continuação

It's very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you're doing if you're a successful trader. - Bill Lipschutz

[O Alquimista]

Continuação

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&start=2125#p1260427

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The introvert aspect is depicted by the disciplined workaholic with a reclusive concentration. The extrovert aspect is depicted by an aggressive, competitive, self-motivated individual striving to be the best in a selective profession. - Mark Cook

[O Alquimista]

Organised common (or uncommon) sense: very basic knowledge is an enormously powerful tool. There are huge dangers with computers. People calculate too much and think too little. - Charlie Munger

[O Alquimista]

I’m right, and you’re smart, and sooner or later you’ll see I’m right. - Charlie Munger

[O Alquimista]

I admit that there is no type of result I enjoy encountering more than one that seems so counterintuitive, so against accepted wisdom, so surprising that I didn’t see it coming at all. Even more enjoyable is the rare occasion when that epiphany is my own. - Clifford S. Asness

[O Alquimista]

Breve história da partilha de uma tripla:

3/12:

caso gostassem de ver alguma empresa analisada futuramente podem sugerir mas é sem compromisso e apenas caso ache interessante, o objectivo vai ser analisar bons/ grandes negocios, a preços razoaveis, leia-se free cash flow yield acima de 4% e forward per abaixo de 20x

4/12:

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
Dycom Industries Inc.
Equinix Inc.

4/12:

...a autoparts não é má empresa mas mas está num preço que não é razoavel, e dycom não gera cash flow...

6/1: 2% + 12% + 14% tripla.

To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them — ideally, all three. - Howard Marks, idem

[O Alquimista]

Gráf. 1:
Continuação

Gráfico 2:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1264301#p1261970
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1264301#p1263503
Trampolim 20 sma x 200 sma Trampolim 200 sma x 800 sma

Gráfico 3:
Executando o trampolim 200 sma x 800 sma.

There’s only one way to describe most investors: trend followers. Superior investors are the exact opposite. - Howard Marks, idem

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&start=2125#p1258939

[O Alquimista]

Let others believe markets can never be beat. Abstention on the part of those who won’t venture in creates opportunities for those who will. - Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

[O Alquimista]

In 2016, Berkshire Hathaway class A shares rose 23.4% vs. a 9.8% increase in the S&P 500 (with dividends included.) Over the 51 year period from 1965 – 2015, Berkshire’s compounded annual gain equaled 20.8% vs 9.7% for the S&P 500 (with dividends included.) From 2012-2016, the most recent five year period, Berkshire’s compounded annual gain equaled 16.3% vs. 12.2% for the S&P 500.Berkshire’s closing share price of $244,121 on December 30, 2016, represents a price to book value ratio of 1.5, based on a book value of $163,783 on September 30, 2016. Its price to book value ratio has averaged 1.6 over the past 30 years. Warren Buffett has previously stated that he would buy back shares when Berkshire’s price to book value is below 1.20.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/berksh ... -500-2016/

Está escrito nas estrelas que este ano vamos ter mais do mesmo. Ao fim de 5-6 anos podemos ter duplicado o capital sem preocupações com gurus, previsões, sinais, sistemas, indicadores, linhas, bolinhas ou setas.

First-level things says, ‘It’s a good company; lets buy the stock.’ Second-level thinking says ‘It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced, let’s sell. - Howard Marks

[O Alquimista]

Cont.

One of my greatest complaints about forecasters is that they seem to ignore their own records. The amazing thing to me is that these people will go on making predictions with a straight face, and the media will continue to carry them” - Howard Marks

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&start=2125#p1260427


If you chose your trading system because of how much it made in backtesting, your trading system is going to kick you in the crotch. - Rob Booker

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1262855#p1261970

Fim.

If you knew you could be happier and make better decisions by blinding yourself, would you do it? - Daniel Egan

[O Alquimista]

Executando a técnica "da 20 MA à 200 MA".

Fim da onda.
Início de outra?

Paradoxically, when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb. - Warren Buffett

[O Alquimista]

Continuação.

Investment professionals spend a ton of time digging through historical market data to tease out the best strategies, trades or allocations (I’m no different). Yet very few ever try to place context around the state of the investment industry when performing backtests or scenario analysis. - Ben Carlson

[O Alquimista]

Continuação

Evaluating funds, advisers and their performance is a complex task and metrics always depend on their future values, not only on past. Investors should ignore the financial media and academic types and work closely with a competent financial adviser and there are many around who do an excellent job.

[O Alquimista]

Continuação

I am always astonished when I hear that new market highs are a reason to avoid equities. Of all of the many factors that have been demonstrated to generate returns, I believe momentum -- and in particular, trend -- is misunderstood by many investors. Think of it this way -- which is the better way to generate gains, investing in markets that reach new lows or new highs? - Barry Ritholtz

[O Alquimista]

http://navegarnabolsa.pt/forum/viewtopi ... 92a4#p2323

Executando a técnica "da 20 MA à 200 MA".

This is something many practitioners in the finance industry fail to grasp. Having the right investor can be more important than having the right investment. Even the best investment strategy isn’t always the correct one. - Ben Carlson

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1261296#p1260065

Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted. - Howard Marks

[O Alquimista]

Cont.
Fase 5: bónus.

Over the last five months, small cap stocks are up 15%. The stocks of oil and gas producers are up 23%. The stocks of regional banks are up 40%. Do we believe that the fundamentals of thousands of small cap companies or hundreds of energy companies and banks have improved by 15, 23 or 40%? Of course we don’t. This is the role that sentiment plays in the stock market. There’s no equation. No formula. Animal spirits cannot be modeled. - Joshua Brown

[Penaforte]

Que bela Alquimia

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1260990#p1260083
Fase 4: gap no target.

The problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensual forecasts, but nonconsensual forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on. - Howard Marks

[O Alquimista]

Fase 3 do padrão: gap.

First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted. - Howard Marks