Fundos à la carte
Re: Fundos à la carte
Employment and Wages.
The November non-farm payroll was 178,000 new employees less 2,000 in revisions.
In the past 12 months, the average monthly gain in employment was 188,000.
Monthly NFP prints are normally volatile. Since 2004, NFP prints near 300,000 have been followed by ones near or under 100,000. That has been a pattern during every bull market; NFP was negative in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997. The low prints of 84,000 in March 2015 and 24,000 in May 2016 fit the historical pattern. This is normal, not unusual or unexpected.
Why is there so much volatility? Leave aside the data collection, seasonal adjustment and weather issues; appreciate that a "beat" or a "miss" of 80,000 workers in a monthly NFP report is equal to just 0.05% of the US workforce.
For this reason, it's better to look at the trend; in November, trend employment growth was 1.6% yoy. Until this spring, annual growth had been the highest since the 1990s. Ahead of a recession, employment growth will likely markedly fall (arrows). Continued deceleration in employment growth in the coming months is therefore a critical watch out.
Average hourly earnings growth was 2.5% yoy in November, near the highest growth rate in 7 years. This is a positive trend, showing demand for more workers. Sustained acceleration in wages would be a big positive for consumption and investment that would further fuel employment.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.pt/2016/12/de ... .html#more
- Capturar 3.PNG (75.04 KiB) Visualizado 5620 vezes
- Capturar 4.PNG (54.65 KiB) Visualizado 5620 vezes
The November non-farm payroll was 178,000 new employees less 2,000 in revisions.
In the past 12 months, the average monthly gain in employment was 188,000.
Monthly NFP prints are normally volatile. Since 2004, NFP prints near 300,000 have been followed by ones near or under 100,000. That has been a pattern during every bull market; NFP was negative in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997. The low prints of 84,000 in March 2015 and 24,000 in May 2016 fit the historical pattern. This is normal, not unusual or unexpected.
Why is there so much volatility? Leave aside the data collection, seasonal adjustment and weather issues; appreciate that a "beat" or a "miss" of 80,000 workers in a monthly NFP report is equal to just 0.05% of the US workforce.
For this reason, it's better to look at the trend; in November, trend employment growth was 1.6% yoy. Until this spring, annual growth had been the highest since the 1990s. Ahead of a recession, employment growth will likely markedly fall (arrows). Continued deceleration in employment growth in the coming months is therefore a critical watch out.
Average hourly earnings growth was 2.5% yoy in November, near the highest growth rate in 7 years. This is a positive trend, showing demand for more workers. Sustained acceleration in wages would be a big positive for consumption and investment that would further fuel employment.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.pt/2016/12/de ... .html#more
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
bucks Escreveu:LTCM Escreveu:bucks Escreveu:BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
Os últimos 4/5 anos foram um mimo.
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... 9078%22%7D
Este ano está nos primeiros dos nacionais. Não significa que seja um perdedor constante, mas uma oportunidade de momento.
Vê de janeiro 2016 para a frente onde vai o gráfico. É um momento, e com quartil 1 bom para entrada...
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... LM0019:EUR
Se bem percebi estás a indicar que é bom momento para entrar?
Não me parece.
Deve-se ao máximo evitar entrar em topos pois dessa forma estamo-nos a por a jeito de levar logo com a primeira correcção que aparecer e que tipicamente é rápida mas não indolor. Que o diga a malta das Biotechs que entrou no Verão de 2015 para apanhar a onda.
Quem entrou em meados de Janeiro andou a jogar à lotaria. Agora olhando para trás é fácil de ver que os números com prémio eram muitos. Quem fez o mesmo jogo em Janeiro de 2008 quando chegou a Dezembro desse ano teve bem menos hipóteses pois números com prémio foram poucos
Ao fim de semana o tempo é para o mercado dos afectos para com a cara metade e com os filhos .
Uma vez que o meu tempo disponível para o acompanhar o fórum é mínimo, se precisarem de algo da minha parte mandem PM que tento passar por cá.
Um abraço e bons investimentos.
Uma vez que o meu tempo disponível para o acompanhar o fórum é mínimo, se precisarem de algo da minha parte mandem PM que tento passar por cá.
Um abraço e bons investimentos.
- Mensagens: 1351
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- Localização: Avanca
Re: Fundos à la carte
Algumas grandes citações de Benjamin Graham (pai da estratégia de investimento de longo prazo em detrimento da especulação):
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
“There should be adequate though not excessive diversification. This might mean a minimum of ten different issues and a maximum of about thirty.”
“The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become more risky, not less, as their prices rise—and less risky, not more, as their prices fall. The intelligent investor dreads a bull market, since it makes stocks more costly to buy. And conversely (so long as you keep enough cash on hand to meet your spending needs), you should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale.”
“It’s time for everyone to acknowledge that the term “long-term investor” is redundant. A long-term investor is the only kind of investor there is. Someone who can’t hold on to stocks for more than a few months at a time is doomed to end up not as a victor but as a victim.”
“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”
“But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
“People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”
“Buy cheap and sell dear.”
“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
“you must thoroughly analyze a company, and the soundness of its underlying businesses, before you buy its stock; you must deliberately protect yourself against serious losses; you must aspire to “adequate,” not extraordinary, performance.”
“The more a stock has gone up, the more it seems likely to keep going up. But that instinctive belief is flatly contradicted by a fundamental law of financial physics: The bigger they get, the slower they grow. A $1-billion company can double its sales fairly easily; but where can a $50-billion company turn to find another $50 billion in business?”
“Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.”
“while enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
“All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.”
“A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with an underlying value that does not depend on its share price.”
“we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume.”
“Rising prices allow Uncle Sam to pay off his debts with dollars that have been cheapened by inflation. Completely eradicating inflation runs against the economic self-interest of any government that regularly borrows money.”
“It has long been the prevalent view that the art of successful investment lies first in the choice of those industries that are most likely to grow in the future and then in identifying the most promising companies in these industries.”
“And back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he “could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.” Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price—and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in today’s money). For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words “South Sea” in his presence.”
“The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices. Market movements are important to him in a practical sense, because they alternately create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell. It is far from certain that the typical investor should regularly hold off buying until low market levels appear, because this may involve a long wait, very likely the loss of income, and the possible missing of investment opportunities. On the whole it may be better for the investor to do his stock buying whenever he has money to put in stocks, except when the general market level is much higher than can be justified by well-established standards of value. If he wants to be shrewd he can look for the ever-present bargain opportunities in individual securities. Aside from forecasting the movements of the general market, much effort and ability are directed on Wall Street toward selecting stocks or industrial groups that in matter of price will “do better” than the rest over a fairly short period in the future. Logical as this endeavor may seem, we do not believe it is suited to the needs or temperament of the true investor—particularly since he would be competing with a large number of stock-market traders and first-class financial analysts who are trying to do the same thing. As in all other activities that emphasize price movements first and underlying values second, the work of many intelligent minds constantly engaged in this field tends to be self-neutralizing and self-defeating over the years. The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. He should always remember that market quotations are there for his convenience, either to be taken advantage of or to be ignored. He should never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell one because it has gone down. He would not be far wrong if this motto read more simply: “Never buy a stock immediately after a substantial rise or sell one immediately after a substantial drop.”
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
“There should be adequate though not excessive diversification. This might mean a minimum of ten different issues and a maximum of about thirty.”
“The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become more risky, not less, as their prices rise—and less risky, not more, as their prices fall. The intelligent investor dreads a bull market, since it makes stocks more costly to buy. And conversely (so long as you keep enough cash on hand to meet your spending needs), you should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale.”
“It’s time for everyone to acknowledge that the term “long-term investor” is redundant. A long-term investor is the only kind of investor there is. Someone who can’t hold on to stocks for more than a few months at a time is doomed to end up not as a victor but as a victim.”
“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”
“But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
“People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”
“Buy cheap and sell dear.”
“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
“you must thoroughly analyze a company, and the soundness of its underlying businesses, before you buy its stock; you must deliberately protect yourself against serious losses; you must aspire to “adequate,” not extraordinary, performance.”
“The more a stock has gone up, the more it seems likely to keep going up. But that instinctive belief is flatly contradicted by a fundamental law of financial physics: The bigger they get, the slower they grow. A $1-billion company can double its sales fairly easily; but where can a $50-billion company turn to find another $50 billion in business?”
“Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.”
“while enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
“All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.”
“A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with an underlying value that does not depend on its share price.”
“we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume.”
“Rising prices allow Uncle Sam to pay off his debts with dollars that have been cheapened by inflation. Completely eradicating inflation runs against the economic self-interest of any government that regularly borrows money.”
“It has long been the prevalent view that the art of successful investment lies first in the choice of those industries that are most likely to grow in the future and then in identifying the most promising companies in these industries.”
“And back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he “could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.” Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price—and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in today’s money). For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words “South Sea” in his presence.”
“The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices. Market movements are important to him in a practical sense, because they alternately create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell. It is far from certain that the typical investor should regularly hold off buying until low market levels appear, because this may involve a long wait, very likely the loss of income, and the possible missing of investment opportunities. On the whole it may be better for the investor to do his stock buying whenever he has money to put in stocks, except when the general market level is much higher than can be justified by well-established standards of value. If he wants to be shrewd he can look for the ever-present bargain opportunities in individual securities. Aside from forecasting the movements of the general market, much effort and ability are directed on Wall Street toward selecting stocks or industrial groups that in matter of price will “do better” than the rest over a fairly short period in the future. Logical as this endeavor may seem, we do not believe it is suited to the needs or temperament of the true investor—particularly since he would be competing with a large number of stock-market traders and first-class financial analysts who are trying to do the same thing. As in all other activities that emphasize price movements first and underlying values second, the work of many intelligent minds constantly engaged in this field tends to be self-neutralizing and self-defeating over the years. The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. He should always remember that market quotations are there for his convenience, either to be taken advantage of or to be ignored. He should never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell one because it has gone down. He would not be far wrong if this motto read more simply: “Never buy a stock immediately after a substantial rise or sell one immediately after a substantial drop.”
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
The Permanent Portfolio.
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/1 ... portfolio/
- Capturar 1.PNG (144.54 KiB) Visualizado 5671 vezes
- Capturar 2.PNG (212.15 KiB) Visualizado 5671 vezes
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/1 ... portfolio/
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Unicredit negoceia venda da Pioneer por três mil milhões
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//empresa ... _Destaques
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//empresa ... _Destaques
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
-
- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 1.JPG (66.18 KiB) Visualizado 5914 vezes
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... -indicator
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Correlação de várias classes de ativos com o S&P 500 e o respetivo beta, no período de Dez.1980 - 31 Dez. 2015.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... cation-2-0
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http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... cation-2-0
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Excessive Diversification Is Pointless & Damages Returns.
1 December 2016 | by Sean Stannard-Stockton, CFA
(Excelente Post)
Most people think that if something is good, more is always better. But that’s rarely true. One of the most important concepts in economics, The Law of Diminishing Returns, shows us that each new unit of something good tends to produce less good than the previous unit. The easiest way to think about this is eating candy. No matter how much you love chocolate, the 10th piece doesn’t give you as much pleasure as the first piece and the 100th piece makes you sick.
Despite the economic roots of this concept, many economists (and much of Wall Street) think this issue doesn’t apply to the diversification of equity portfolios. But as we’ll show, more is not always better and the value of diversification diminishes much faster than most people think.
The chart, based on data from the classic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel, shows how adding a third or seventh or fifteenth position to an equity portfolio materially reduces the volatility of returns. However, by the time a portfolio has twenty or so holdings, the incremental reductions in portfolio volatility from new holdings is very small.
Burton Malkiel, a strong proponent of diversification and a skeptic of active management, says in the book:
“By the time the portfolio contains close to 20 equal-sized and well-diversified issues, the total risk (standard deviation of returns) of the portfolio is reduced by 70 percent. Further increase in the number of holdings does not produce any significant further risk reduction.”
Malkiel’s research was based on randomly selecting stocks, so if an investor builds a portfolio of 20 energy companies or 20 technology companies, their portfolio will exhibit far more volatility than the chart suggests. But so long as the members of the portfolio are companies with diverse end markets, business models, etc, a purposely selected (rather than randomly selected) portfolio of 20 or so companies is very likely to capture the bulk of available diversification benefits.
Of course, investors do not seek only to reduce risk. They also want to maximize returns. If you are actively picking stocks that you hope will outperform, it becomes clear very quickly that it is quite hard to find a lot of good ideas. A realistic investor knows that even their best idea has a very good chance of underperforming, despite their best efforts. So a smart investor will build a portfolio of a number of stocks that they expect will beat the market. But there are limits to the number of stocks an investor can know well and have a reasonable basis to believe will outperform. So while more stocks will reduce volatility, it also requires adding stocks to the portfolio that the investor believes has less potential to outperform.
A 50th or 100th “best idea” isn’t likely to add much in the way of potential outperformance. But it also isn’t likely to add much in the way of lower volatility or reduced risk. So why do most professionally managed, active investment portfolios own well over 100 stocks?
There are two key reasons for professional active investment managers to own way more stocks that they need to.
The first is because it helps them not underperform by too much, but the price they pay is reducing their potential to outperform. If you own 25 rather than 200 stocks, the volatility of your portfolio won’t be much higher. But the tracking error of your portfolio to the benchmark will likely be higher. That’s because while your portfolio will be diversified from a volatility standpoint, it will be quite different from the benchmark. This is called having a high “active share” and research shows having it is a critical key to potential outperformance. But having a portfolio that is quite different from your benchmark means that while it might not be more volatility, it won’t “track” the benchmark as closely. Most managers don’t have any confidence that their clients (or their bosses) will tolerate any length of time where they underperform, so they own more stocks in order to reduce their tracking error. But this has the effect of greatly reducing their ability to potential outperform over time.
The second key reason is that the collective market cap of the stocks you own in your portfolio places a limit on how much assets you can manage in your strategy. A portfolio of 25 stocks will have a collective market cap that is lower than a portfolio of 200 stocks, so the manager, who gets paid for managing more assets, can make more money if they manage a strategy with more stocks in the portfolio. This is why you see relatively focused funds close their doors to new money, while the typical, excessively diversified fund rarely closes to new investors.
So diversification is great, but its benefits are realized with far fewer stocks that most people realize. If your goal is to match the market performance (which is a perfectly reasonable goal) than buying every stock in the market (ie. broad diversification) makes perfect sense. But if your goal is to beat the market, the level of diversification should be optimized, not maximized. What you want to avoid at all costs is attempting to beat the market by investing in strategies that are excessively diversified.
http://intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/12/0 ... s-returns/
1 December 2016 | by Sean Stannard-Stockton, CFA
(Excelente Post)
- Capturar 2.JPG (40.83 KiB) Visualizado 5943 vezes
Most people think that if something is good, more is always better. But that’s rarely true. One of the most important concepts in economics, The Law of Diminishing Returns, shows us that each new unit of something good tends to produce less good than the previous unit. The easiest way to think about this is eating candy. No matter how much you love chocolate, the 10th piece doesn’t give you as much pleasure as the first piece and the 100th piece makes you sick.
Despite the economic roots of this concept, many economists (and much of Wall Street) think this issue doesn’t apply to the diversification of equity portfolios. But as we’ll show, more is not always better and the value of diversification diminishes much faster than most people think.
The chart, based on data from the classic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel, shows how adding a third or seventh or fifteenth position to an equity portfolio materially reduces the volatility of returns. However, by the time a portfolio has twenty or so holdings, the incremental reductions in portfolio volatility from new holdings is very small.
Burton Malkiel, a strong proponent of diversification and a skeptic of active management, says in the book:
“By the time the portfolio contains close to 20 equal-sized and well-diversified issues, the total risk (standard deviation of returns) of the portfolio is reduced by 70 percent. Further increase in the number of holdings does not produce any significant further risk reduction.”
Malkiel’s research was based on randomly selecting stocks, so if an investor builds a portfolio of 20 energy companies or 20 technology companies, their portfolio will exhibit far more volatility than the chart suggests. But so long as the members of the portfolio are companies with diverse end markets, business models, etc, a purposely selected (rather than randomly selected) portfolio of 20 or so companies is very likely to capture the bulk of available diversification benefits.
Of course, investors do not seek only to reduce risk. They also want to maximize returns. If you are actively picking stocks that you hope will outperform, it becomes clear very quickly that it is quite hard to find a lot of good ideas. A realistic investor knows that even their best idea has a very good chance of underperforming, despite their best efforts. So a smart investor will build a portfolio of a number of stocks that they expect will beat the market. But there are limits to the number of stocks an investor can know well and have a reasonable basis to believe will outperform. So while more stocks will reduce volatility, it also requires adding stocks to the portfolio that the investor believes has less potential to outperform.
A 50th or 100th “best idea” isn’t likely to add much in the way of potential outperformance. But it also isn’t likely to add much in the way of lower volatility or reduced risk. So why do most professionally managed, active investment portfolios own well over 100 stocks?
There are two key reasons for professional active investment managers to own way more stocks that they need to.
The first is because it helps them not underperform by too much, but the price they pay is reducing their potential to outperform. If you own 25 rather than 200 stocks, the volatility of your portfolio won’t be much higher. But the tracking error of your portfolio to the benchmark will likely be higher. That’s because while your portfolio will be diversified from a volatility standpoint, it will be quite different from the benchmark. This is called having a high “active share” and research shows having it is a critical key to potential outperformance. But having a portfolio that is quite different from your benchmark means that while it might not be more volatility, it won’t “track” the benchmark as closely. Most managers don’t have any confidence that their clients (or their bosses) will tolerate any length of time where they underperform, so they own more stocks in order to reduce their tracking error. But this has the effect of greatly reducing their ability to potential outperform over time.
The second key reason is that the collective market cap of the stocks you own in your portfolio places a limit on how much assets you can manage in your strategy. A portfolio of 25 stocks will have a collective market cap that is lower than a portfolio of 200 stocks, so the manager, who gets paid for managing more assets, can make more money if they manage a strategy with more stocks in the portfolio. This is why you see relatively focused funds close their doors to new money, while the typical, excessively diversified fund rarely closes to new investors.
So diversification is great, but its benefits are realized with far fewer stocks that most people realize. If your goal is to match the market performance (which is a perfectly reasonable goal) than buying every stock in the market (ie. broad diversification) makes perfect sense. But if your goal is to beat the market, the level of diversification should be optimized, not maximized. What you want to avoid at all costs is attempting to beat the market by investing in strategies that are excessively diversified.
http://intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/12/0 ... s-returns/
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 1.JPG (29.14 KiB) Visualizado 5959 vezes
Gráfico reportado a 2 Dez. 2016
Fonte: Bespoke Investment Group
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Aconselho a sairem mais das obrigações... 
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
-
- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 2.PNG (176.78 KiB) Visualizado 6024 vezes
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 1.PNG (63.1 KiB) Visualizado 6040 vezes
Fonte: Bespoke Investment Group
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
bucks Escreveu:LTCM Escreveu:bucks Escreveu:BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
Os últimos 4/5 anos foram um mimo.
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... 9078%22%7D
Este ano está nos primeiros dos nacionais. Não significa que seja um perdedor constante, mas uma oportunidade de momento.
Vê de janeiro 2016 para a frente onde vai o gráfico. É um momento, e com quartil 1 bom para entrada...
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... LM0019:EUR
Os fundos de investimento e os seus respetivos gestores não incorporam nenhum ADN ou factor genético permanentes de insucesso ou sucesso ao longo de um processo de investimento. Porquê? Porque os mercados bolsistas são imprevisíveis e várias vezes seguem, temporariamente, rumos contrários aos fundamentais económico-financeiros e à análise técnica. Portanto, um smart money pode-se transformar num dumb money e vice-versa.
Um fundo que no passado recente tenha tido uma grande outperformance é por definição um fundo em que se estão progressivamente a reduzir as oportunidades dos seus ativos continuarem a ser relativamente baratos, logo passa a ser cada vez menos recomendável entrar nesse fundo com uma over valuation dos seus ativos.
O gestor do fundo pode ser um grande stock picking, mas a partir de determinados turnovers da sua carteira de ativos, o mercado específico, da politica de investimento do fundo, deixa de ter ativos com boas oportunidades de investimento, e aí ele tem que apostar em ativos alternativos e em colocar o fundo em soft ou hard closed, com vista a poder salvaguardar os investidores existentes e a boa performance histórica do fundo. Infelizmente, sabemos que só uma pequena parte dos gestores fazem isso, pois o que a maioria quer é no imediato mais subscrições do fundo => mais dinheiro ganho em comissões.
Porque é que um investimento do tipo contrarian é aquele que no médio-longo prazo terá uma maior probabilidade de sucesso? Porque é aquele em que se entra quando a maioria está em debandada de selloff, provocando assim um afundanço nos preços, logo a entrada constitui uma grande oportunidade de comprar pechinchas extremamente desvalorizadas, normalmente, irracionalmente, e assim haverá mais margem de progressão dos preços para no futuro se poder vender por um preço caro ou acima da média ou do preço justo.
Só que este tipo de investimento é psicologicamente dos mais difíceis, pois é preciso ter "big balls" para comprar quando a grande maioria está a vender e os supostos experts começam a anunciar crashs, para além de que é preciso ter uma boa liquidez para poder aguentar o investimento durante vários anos.
Portanto, aquilo que aparentemente parecia ser uma aplicação de dumb money passa a ser de smart money.
O grande aliado e redutor de stress do investidor do tipo contrarian é a existência do fenómeno da reversão para a média nas cotações dos mercados acionistas (na cotação individual de uma empresa pode não haver reversão para a média porque a mesma pode abrir falência ou ser ultrapassada tecnologicamente pelos seus concorrentes). É aliás essa reversão para a média (ou para o equilíbrio) que garante a autossustentabilidade dos mercados acionistas. A natureza e a ciência em geral ensina-nos que só os processos que tendem para o equilíbrio é que são autossustentáveis e assim terão futuro, senão poderão só ter presente e passado, tal como um mau investidor que só entra na fase de euforia dos mercados ou que só subscreve fundos que estejam a bombar ou que tenham bombado recentemente.
É também o fenómeno da reversão para a média que garante o sucesso do investimento buy-and-hold, associado ao facto de no longo prazo o mercado acionista ser capitalizável positivamente, dando assim uma espécie de juros a quem detenha o seu investimento por um período longo.
Assim, a estratégia buy-and-hold constitui um investimento autossustentável (é só uma questão de manter o investimento por mais um período de tempo, no caso de as coisas começarem a correr mal), porque tem assim 2 grandes aliados: reversão para a média dos preços e capitalização positiva do mercado acionista, no longo prazo.
No entanto, por definição, o investimento buy-and-hold ao não evitar ou mitigar as piores fases dos downsides dos mercados acionistas (capta as fases todas do mercado, logo as melhores mas também as piores), e sabendo-se que as amplitudes de afundanço dos downsides são maiores que as amplitudes dos grandes upsides, então os investidores com maior sucesso no mercado acionista só poderão ser aqueles que praticarão uma gestão ativa de sucesso, no entanto também será na gestão ativa que se encontrarão os maiores perdedores. Na gestão ativa não costuma haver almoços grátis, é preciso muito profissionalismo, empenho, liquidez, sorte e muita paciência para não tomar decisões precipitadas erradas.
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Bom dia! 
Por aqui tenho esta carteira bastante negativa, subscrita em 11/08/2015;
ISIN LU0157183665 – JPM US Select Equity D (acc) – EUR (hedged) +3%
ISIN LU0248320581 – Pictet – Japanese Equity Selection HR EUR -14.39%
ISIN LU0252967707 - BGF EUROPEAN FOCUS E2 EUR -16.41%
Bons Investimentos!
bjs
Por aqui tenho esta carteira bastante negativa, subscrita em 11/08/2015;
ISIN LU0157183665 – JPM US Select Equity D (acc) – EUR (hedged) +3%
ISIN LU0248320581 – Pictet – Japanese Equity Selection HR EUR -14.39%
ISIN LU0252967707 - BGF EUROPEAN FOCUS E2 EUR -16.41%
Bons Investimentos!
bjs
- Mensagens: 53
- Registado: 7/4/2015 22:55
Re: Fundos à la carte
Boa Noite!
As ovelhas negras na minha carteira, continuam a ser o DWS Biotech e o Santander Ações Portugal
cpts
As ovelhas negras na minha carteira, continuam a ser o DWS Biotech e o Santander Ações Portugal
cpts
- Mensagens: 134
- Registado: 26/11/2014 16:45
Re: Fundos à la carte
LTCM Escreveu:bucks Escreveu:BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
Os últimos 4/5 anos foram um mimo.
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... 9078%22%7D
Este ano está nos primeiros dos nacionais. Não significa que seja um perdedor constante, mas uma oportunidade de momento.
Vê de janeiro 2016 para a frente onde vai o gráfico. É um momento, e com quartil 1 bom para entrada...
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... LM0019:EUR
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
bucks Escreveu:BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
Os últimos 4/5 anos foram um mimo.
http://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsh ... 9078%22%7D
Remember the Golden Rule: Those who have the gold make the rules.
***
"A soberania e o respeito de Portugal impõem que neste lugar se erga um Forte, e isso é obra e serviço dos homens de El-Rei nosso senhor e, como tal, por mais duro, por mais difícil e por mais trabalhoso que isso dê, (...) é serviço de Portugal. E tem que se cumprir."
***
"A soberania e o respeito de Portugal impõem que neste lugar se erga um Forte, e isso é obra e serviço dos homens de El-Rei nosso senhor e, como tal, por mais duro, por mais difícil e por mais trabalhoso que isso dê, (...) é serviço de Portugal. E tem que se cumprir."
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- Mensagens: 3030
- Registado: 28/2/2007 14:18
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 1.JPG (42.03 KiB) Visualizado 6243 vezes
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Dollar and Oil Both Surge in November. Nov 30, 2016
Here’s something you don’t see very often. During the month of November, not only did crude oil rally (thanks to today’s surge) gaining 4.6%, but the dollar also rallied more than 3%. To see both rally more than 3% in the same month is definitely not very common as there have only been nine prior occurrences in the last 30 years. What makes this move even crazier is that it is the second month this year that it has happened.
As shown in the table below, back in May, crude oil rallied even more (6.9%) as the US Dollar index also rallied 3%. Before that, you have to go back to November 2010 to find another occurrence. Looking at the other occurrences, there were also two occurrences in 2005 and two in 2000.
For each occurrence in the table, we have also included performance figures for crude oil, the US Dollar Index, and the S&P 500 over the following one and three months. More often than not, the US Dollar index has given back some of these gains in the next one and three months with average returns of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. For crude oil and the S&P 500, though, the opposite has been the case as both have tended to trade higher in the next one and three months.
In the case of crude oil, the commodity has averaged a gain of 3.8% over the following month and 5.7% over the next month. Meanwhile, equities have seen gains over the following one and three months two-thirds of the time with average gains of 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively.
Fonte: Bespoke Investment Group
Here’s something you don’t see very often. During the month of November, not only did crude oil rally (thanks to today’s surge) gaining 4.6%, but the dollar also rallied more than 3%. To see both rally more than 3% in the same month is definitely not very common as there have only been nine prior occurrences in the last 30 years. What makes this move even crazier is that it is the second month this year that it has happened.
As shown in the table below, back in May, crude oil rallied even more (6.9%) as the US Dollar index also rallied 3%. Before that, you have to go back to November 2010 to find another occurrence. Looking at the other occurrences, there were also two occurrences in 2005 and two in 2000.
For each occurrence in the table, we have also included performance figures for crude oil, the US Dollar Index, and the S&P 500 over the following one and three months. More often than not, the US Dollar index has given back some of these gains in the next one and three months with average returns of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. For crude oil and the S&P 500, though, the opposite has been the case as both have tended to trade higher in the next one and three months.
In the case of crude oil, the commodity has averaged a gain of 3.8% over the following month and 5.7% over the next month. Meanwhile, equities have seen gains over the following one and three months two-thirds of the time with average gains of 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively.
- Capturar 1.JPG (56.63 KiB) Visualizado 6282 vezes
Fonte: Bespoke Investment Group
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Os fundos do bpi andam a dar-me alegrias, tais como os do montepio, tem muitos sectoriais, atrevo-me a dizer que dos nacionais são os melhorzinhos.
BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
BPIREST:PL
BPI Reestruturacoes - Fundo de Investimento Aberto de Accoes
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BPIREST:PL
Dedicado pelo menos na sua metade aos EUA... Aproveita potencialidades...
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
chico_laranja Escreveu:Eu ando por aqui
É sabido que o autor ia estudar e dessa forma deixava de ter tempo para fóruns e afins.
Há prioridades e o fórum não estará certamente na linha da frente
Quando num outro tópico havia uma discussão em "R", o nosso amigo apareceu por lá muito ativo (eu até já tinha pensado que ele se teria mudado para as discussões passivas do "stay the course" em vez de questionar esse mesmo "course"
).Mas se ele gosta assim tanto do "R", sempre se pode gerar aqui neste tópico uma discussão alavancada do "R" e passamos para o "R-squared"
Também faz falta neste tópico o Alquimista para com as suas reflexões e provocações (boas como a "boa volatilidade") tornar os nossos cérebros mais ativos (é preciso ter bons inputs de estímulos no nosso cérebro para depois termos outputs de ideias com outperformaces) e com grandes caudais de overflow de ideias, aquilo a que podemos designar como um grande transbordo ou jorrar de ideias, pois os pensamentos têm um tamanho tal que o cérebro torna-se pequeno para conter todas essas ideias, tal como numa certa altura alguém disse " o meu quarto de hotel é tão pequeno que até para mudar de ideias tenho que vir para o corredor".
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Eu ando por aqui
É sabido que o autor ia estudar e dessa forma deixava de ter tempo para fóruns e afins.
Há prioridades e o fórum não estará certamente na linha da frente
É sabido que o autor ia estudar e dessa forma deixava de ter tempo para fóruns e afins.
Há prioridades e o fórum não estará certamente na linha da frente
Ao fim de semana o tempo é para o mercado dos afectos para com a cara metade e com os filhos .
Uma vez que o meu tempo disponível para o acompanhar o fórum é mínimo, se precisarem de algo da minha parte mandem PM que tento passar por cá.
Um abraço e bons investimentos.
Uma vez que o meu tempo disponível para o acompanhar o fórum é mínimo, se precisarem de algo da minha parte mandem PM que tento passar por cá.
Um abraço e bons investimentos.
- Mensagens: 1351
- Registado: 29/11/2007 2:37
- Localização: Avanca
Re: Fundos à la carte
Já me têm pedido conselhos.
Então agora que está bom para comprarem fundos acções, tudo foge... Tenho mais receio das obrigações actualmente.
Então agora que está bom para comprarem fundos acções, tudo foge... Tenho mais receio das obrigações actualmente.
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
topline Escreveu:Por falar em predadores e presas ... onde anda o criador deste tópico e alguns dos seus seguidores? Será que que mudaram de ecossistema porque aqui a "boa comida" começou a rarear?
Um bom filho deve retornar sempre à sua casa, principalmente o arquiteto/criador da casa.
Tenho saudades dos amigos que pululavam por este tópico ... às tantas parece que eu e o amigo bucks andamos a postar para um muro de betão armado.
Podem não ter a percepção, mas deve haver montes de gente que segue atentamente este tópico. Pessoalmente sigo este tópico à pelo menos dois anos e apesar de ainda ter receio de investir em fundos, gosto de ler as vossas opiniões e partilha de informação.
O meu obrigado pela partilha.
- Mensagens: 29
- Registado: 3/2/2010 3:01
- Localização: 3
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