Segue-se aquele que será o maior update ao tópico inicial pois irei falar de investimentos em dólares. Irei introduzir uma nova seção chamada
"ETF's Americanos". São etf's em dólares negociados nos mercados americanos e este é que é de facto o "meu mundo". Sigo estes ETF's (e compro/vendo) muito antes de investir em euros, ter noção de fundos etc... A informação que se encontra sobre o mercado americano é avassaladora e a "parede de texto" que se segue embora muito interessante testa a capacidade de leitura/paciência da pessoa mais interessada
Irei não só dizer o que cada ETF "faz" como irei identifica-lo com o fundo que mais se parece. É importante identificar os fundos com os ETF's para compreender o update seguinte (sobre correlações) de forma mais aprofundada.
Assim:
IEF- iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury - Assemelha-se muito a
AXA WF Euro 7-10 EC EUR sendo que negoceia com as treasuries americanas em vez de com as diversas obrigações europeias.
"IShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond IEF tracks a collection of Treasury Bonds with an average duration somewhere around seven years. The bonds are backed by the guarantee of the U.S. government, meaning that the risk of default is near zero. That said, risk equals reward and the yields are low relative to riskier stock and bond investments. Investors in this fund should expect a regular monthly stream of payments that will fluctuate over time as the underlying coupon rates move in the laddered index. Despite the absence of credit risk, this fund and the underlying index are still exposed to interest-rate and inflation risk. That is, if inflation or the real rate of return demanded by the market rise, the price on this fund will drop until the yield is high enough to reflect the current market sentiment. Conversely, in times of market turmoil, the value of this fund should rise as investors flock to safety.
We see this fund serving two primary purposes in an investor's portfolio. The first is that it is suitable as a component of the fixed-income allocation in a diversified portfolio. The fund has low fees, and its stable payout will help preserve cash in times of market disruptions. The other is as a safe haven for an investor's funds during extreme market turmoil. This fund will provide a return not unlike owning a long-dated Treasury bond. Another thing for investors to consider is the transaction costs involved with moving in and out of this fund. Given the low expected returns, investors frequently trading in and out of this fund run the risk of eating up their returns." -
In MorningStar.com
Tal como os AXA WF Euro este ETF faz parte de uma familia mais alargada. Temos assim:
iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI)
iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF)
iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bd (TLH)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
Lembrem-se que quanto maior a data maior a volatilidade.
BOND - PIMCO Total Return ETF - É o ETF da PIMCO e gerido por Bill Gross. Supostamente uma versão em ETF do
Pimco Total Return a verdade é que tem vindo a ter uma performance superior ao fundo.
"PIMCO Total Return ETF BOND is the exchange-traded fund version of the very successful PIMCO Total Return Institutional PTTRX. The ETF is its own fund and is not a separate share class of the mutual fund like many Vanguard ETFs are. Vanguard has a patent on that structure restricting others from using it. Famed investment manager Bill Gross will manage the ETF and will follow the same PIMCO Total Return strategy he has been employing since 1987.
As an active ETF, BOND will be required to disclose its portfolio holdings daily. This will be the first time that investors will be able to see PIMCO's macroeconomic views in real time through the holdings of the ETF. Although the holdings will differ between funds, PIMCO uses a sophisticated trade allocation process to allocate shares of securities to the different funds following the Total Return strategy on a pro-rata basis. This means that the ETF will get new positions at the same time as the mutual fund.
BOND is suitable as a core bond holding that focuses on high-quality intermediate-term bonds. The ETF can't buy derivatives such as futures, swaps, and options. The lack of derivatives will limit some of the tactics employed, but it will make the ETF a more traditional fixed-income vehicle.
When BOND was launched with about $100 million in assets, Bill Gross was able to start fresh with a brand-new portfolio that had no legacy positions. The recent outperformance shows how a highly skilled active manager can add tremendous value in a small portfolio. It pays to be little. PTTRX has more than 19,000 holdings, whereas BOND has just more than 300. Because the ETF portfolio is very nimble, PIMCO's best individual bond ideas can be bought with large percentage allocations. Effectively, the ETF is performing like Bill Gross' "best ideas" list"
in MorningStar.com
BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF - O fundo mais parecido será o
Schroder ISF US Dollar Bd B EUR Hdg
"Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND tracks the Barclays Capital Aggregate Float-Adjusted Bond Index, widely used as a proxy for the United States investment-grade bond market. It holds bonds including mortgage-backed securities, Treasuries, and corporates. This fund is solid and broad enough to serve as the only fixed-income fund in a portfolio. Investors worried about rising interest rates should note that the fund's average effective duration (a measure of interest-rate sensitivity) usually floats between 4.0 and 5.0 years, meaning that a 1-percentage-point rise in rates will reduce BND's price between 4% and 5%.
Investors seeking broad exposure should note that the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index excludes a wide range of securities, including floating-rate, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, tax-exempt municipal, convertible, foreign, and high-yield bonds.
BND is the best of the broad bond indexes owing to its low costs and superior tracking."
in MorningStar.com
LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond - O fundo ao qual este ETF mais se aproxima é o
PIMCO Investment Grade
"IShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp Bond LQD is one of the largest and most liquid exchange-traded funds, becoming the de facto proxy for the corporate-bond market. High-quality corporate bonds offer relatively safe income and typically yield more than Treasury bonds because of their credit risk. Long-term investors could own LQD as part of a diversified-bond allocation, and tactical investors could own this ETF when they feel that the corporate-bond market is underpriced versus Treasuries.
This fund holds paper with an average rating of A. Still, that does not make the fund immune to losses, even if the actual creditworthiness of its underlying companies remains unchanged. Corporate spreads can widen, inflicting losses on funds like this one, because of factors such as liquidity and changing opportunities in other areas of the fixed-income market.
Investors should also be aware that a corporate-bond ETF such as LQD often has substantially overweightings to certain sectors relative to the S&P 500. For example, LQD has a 36% weighting in financials compared with the 14% weighting in the S&P 500. Also, like all bond funds in general, this ETF is subject to inflation and interest-rate risk. If inflation or interest rates rise, the value of the underlying bonds will decline." -
in MorningStar.com
TIP - iShares Barclays TIPS Bond - Este ETF assemelha-se a
AXA Global Inflation Bonds
"IShares Barclays TIPS Bond TIP is ideal for investors looking for easy and low-cost access to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The fund provides a laddered structure with the underlying index holding securities that range from one year to 20 years in duration. This fund is a nice complement in a core portfolio to exchange-traded funds that track the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index because that index excludes inflation-protected securities.
TIPS principal is linked to changes in the Consumer Price Index and provides an effective hedge against inflation in an investor's portfolio relative to standard Treasury bonds. As the CPI rises, the principal in the individual TIPS is adjusted upward. The coupon on the bond is then paid on the higher principal, which raises the overall effective yield of the security. Investors can check what is known as the "inflation break-even" rate by comparing the 10-year Treasury bond yield with the 10-year TIPS yield. The difference is the rate at which inflation would have to be above over the next 10 years in order for an investor to be better off owning the TIPS than the Treasury bond. The inflation adjustment does swing both ways, though, so any decrease in the CPI will result in a decrease of TIPS principal. In a deflationary environment, this adjustment manifests itself in a suspension of distributions from the fund. So, investors counting on steady distributions for income should be careful using this product because, during periods of CPI deflation, TIPS will suspend distributions.
It is important to note that inflation is just one component of interest rates and that changes in the "real rate" or the risk-free cost of capital will cause the value of TIPS to oscillate up or down just like Treasury bonds. It is also important to note that because of the inflation adjustment on TIPS, the yield you get today is not set in stone, and investors should be prepared for it to move up or down depending on the movements of the CPI.
In an asset-allocation strategy, iShares Barclays TIPS should be considered as a complement to your government-bond allocation. More active investors and speculators will want to consider adding TIPS to their portfolio when they think that inflation will be higher over the next several years than is currently priced into the inflation break-even rate."
in MorningStar.com
JNK - SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond - O fundo que se assemelha mais a este ETF é o
PIMCO High Yield
"We consider investing in high-yield corporate bonds to be similar to investing in the equities of companies with highly leveraged balance sheets. As such, an investment in high-yield bonds, or an exchange-traded fund with a high-yield focus like SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond JNK should be viewed as a satellite holding, and a risky one at that.
Corporate bonds are denoted high yield for the sole reason that firms issuing them are highly leveraged. Companies with this kind of leverage profile can get there either intentionally (because of a leveraged buyout, leveraged acquisition, or recapitalization) or unintentionally (because of a deterioration of the underlying business of an erstwhile investment-grade firm). Either way, the risk from leverage is the same, even if the businesses may be moving in different directions. With increased leverage comes the increased probability of default and bankruptcy. In the grand scheme of things, risk equals return, and the high yield of these bonds is designed to compensate investors for this risk.
Investors looking at high-yield products need to key on several valuation data points. The first is the implied yield of the underlying ETF. This tells an investor what the expected return on the current distribution is relative to the price of the fund. Yields are always best viewed relative to what Treasury bonds are doing, and the resulting difference is known as the credit spread--the additional risk that you are being paid above the risk-free rate. We always check the underlying indexes yield-to-maturity return versus the five-year Treasury bond rate (which can be found on the Morningstar homepage).
The final data point for would-be investors to get their heads around is the expected default rate. High-yield bond spreads usually move with the market's expectation of default rates among high-yield issuers. This is the subjective forecast that investors are basically making their "call" on when investing in the high-yield bond sector.
We will note that the diversification afforded by this index structure does provide a valuable risk-abatement tool for investors looking for exposure to high-yield bonds. The odds of this index going to zero are significantly lower than that of a single high-yield bond defaulting." -
in MorningStar.com
EMB - iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond - Este ETF assemelha-se a
F&C Emerging Markets Bond
"iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond EMB is a satellite holding for investors with a high conviction that emerging-markets government-issued bonds will perform well.
The underlying index tracks a portfolio of emerging-markets bonds with an average credit quality of BB. Emerging markets have increased political and economic risks, which make them more susceptible to default. For the increased credit risk, investors get higher relative yields. As with any fixed-income product, investors need to be mindful of the yield offered and how that compares with their expectations for inflation over the long run. This exchange-traded fund will also be subject to real interest-rate risk in terms of the relative risk-free cost of capital available in the market. For example, if inflation concerns ebb, investors can expect that to have a positive impact on this fund. Likewise, if the real interest rate for risk rises, investors in this fund can expect a negative impact.
EMB owns only U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds, so there is no direct currency exposure. This eliminates a risk, but some investors would probably prefer to have the foreign currency risk, because it could increase returns if the U.S. dollar falls versus emerging-markets currencies. The fund only invests in U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds because it improves the liquidity of the portfolio. Foreign-denominated bonds in many cases trade very infrequently."
in MorningStar.com
ELD - WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt - o Fundo que mais se assemelha é o
Pictet-Em Lcl Ccy Dbt-R. Embora este seja um ETF recente está já na minha Watchlist
"WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ELD is a satellite holding for investors with a high conviction that emerging-markets government-issued bonds will perform well. The underlying index tracks a portfolio of local currency emerging-markets government bonds from 15 different countries.
Emerging markets have increased political and economic risks that make them more susceptible to default. For this increased risk, investors get higher relative yields. As with any fixed-income product, investors need to be mindful of the yield offered and how that compares with their expectations for inflation over the long run. This exchange-traded fund will also be subject to real interest-rate risk in terms of the relative risk-free cost of capital available in the market. For example, if inflation concerns ebb, investors can expect that to have a positive impact on this fund. Likewise, if the real interest rate for risk rises, investors in this fund can expect a negative impact.
ELD owns local currency bonds, so foreign currency movements will affect the value of the fund dramatically. If the emerging markets continue growing their economy faster than the United States, then their currency should rise versus the dollar, which will be positive for ELD over the long term."
in MorningStar.com
VDC - Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF - o Fundo que mais se assemelha é o
EEF Equity Consumer Staples
"Mature firms with stable cash flows and global franchises serve as the cornerstone for this fund. Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC could be considered a suitable satellite holding for investors seeking equity exposure, with a preference toward mature companies with stable cash flows. This exchange-traded fund, which offers exposure to mega-cap household names whose products consumers continue to purchase regardless of the economic climate, could be viewed as a defensive tilt for a broad-based equity portfolio. Investors in search of explosive growth are better suited looking elsewhere, as this portfolio is chock-full of mature businesses offering relatively stable returns and an average market cap of about $48.6 billion. As is to be expected, consumer goods companies dominate the portfolio. There also are a slew of nondiscretionary retailers included here such as Wal-Mart WMT, Walgreen WAG, and Kroger KR. While investors shouldn't expect much greater than mid-single-digit top-line growth from these mature firms over the long-term, there's something to be said for stability during turbulent markets. The fund also offers a decent dividend yield. Asset allocators may wish to consider that over the past five years, this fund has been 87% correlated with the S&P 500 Index.
Over the past five years, VDC has had a volatility of return of 12.8%. That compares with Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR's XLP 12.4% and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods' IYK 15.5%.
In MorningStar.com