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Moody’s Sees U.S. Rating Cut to Aa On Default
By John Detrixhe - Jun 29, 2011 10:34 PM GMT+0100


Moody’s Investors Service said it would likely reduce the U.S. credit rating to the Aa range in the event of a default if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on raising the nation’s debt limit.

Ratings directly linked to the U.S. government’s Aaa rating would also move in lock-step with any U.S. rating action, while some Aaa ratings of state and local governments may be vulnerable, Moody’s said in a report today. Moody’s warned on June 2 that it will put the U.S. rating under review for a downgrade unless there’s progress on increasing the debt limit by mid-July.

Standard & Poor’s said today that it would cut the U.S. sovereign rating to D, the lowest on its scale, in the event of a default after a failure to raise the debt limit, according to John Chambers, chairman of the sovereign rating committee.

Derivatives traders are demanding higher prices to insure Treasuries against default as the standoff between Congress and the Obama administration drags on.

The costs for insuring against default for one year have risen to 51 basis points as of June 28 from 24 basis points on May 16, when the U.S. reached its borrowing limit, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt.
Moody’s View

The U.S. would risk not winning back its top Aaa credit rating soon if the nation’s debt limit causes even a short-term default, Moody’s senior credit officer said in an interview this month.

A default stemming from “the debt limit and the political configuration would indicate that, well, this might happen again,” according to Moody’s Steve Hess. “That risk is perhaps not compatible with Aaa,” Hess said at Bloomberg headquarters in New York on June 21.

S&P put the U.S. government on notice in April that it risks losing its top AAA rating unless policy makers agree on and implement a plan by 2013 to reduce budget deficits and the national debt.

Marco Martins Escreveu:

lsilva4 Escreveu:As agências financeiras já ameaçaram os Estados Unidos para colocarem algum controlo sobre o défice...passo a passo são bem capazes de cumprir com as ameaças...Será mesmo assim?

Cumprimentos

Ameaçam de depois é que descem... se descerem...
Será que algum polícia ou organismo ameaça primeiro antes de intervir para provocar especulação?!?!

E se todos os países da Europa e os USA ameaçassem prescindir dos serviços dessas agências? Quanto é que elas perderiam?

lsilva4 Escreveu:As agências financeiras já ameaçaram os Estados Unidos para colocarem algum controlo sobre o défice...passo a passo são bem capazes de cumprir com as ameaças...Será mesmo assim?

Cumprimentos

US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.
Much of the public focus is on the nation's public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn't include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

The government also is on the hook for other debts such as the programs related to the bailout of the financial system following the crisis of 2008 and 2009, government figures show.

Taken together, Gross puts the total at "nearly $100 trillion," that while perhaps a bit on the high side, places the country in a highly unenviable fiscal position that he said won't find a solution overnight.

"To think that we can reduce that within the space of a year or two is not a realistic assumption," Gross said in a live interview. "That's much more than Greece, that's much more than almost any other developed country. We've got a problem and we have to get after it quickly."

Gross spoke following a report that US banks were likely to scale back on their use of Treasurys as collateral against derivatives and other transactions. Bank heads say that move is likely to happen in August as Congress dithers over whether to raise the nation's debt ceiling, according to a report in the Financial Times.

The move reflects increasing concern from the financial community over whether the US is capable of a political solution to its burgeoning debt and deficit problems.
"We've always wondered who will buy Treasurys" after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. "It's certainly not Pimco and it's probably not the bond funds of the world."

Pimco, based in Newport Beach, Calif., manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets and runs the largest bond fund in the world.

Gross confirmed a report Friday that Pimco has marginally increased its Treasurys allotment—from 4 percent to 5 percent—but still has little interest in US debt and its low yields that are in place despite an ugly national balance sheet.

"Why wouldn't an investor buy Canada with a better balance sheet or Australia with a better balance sheet with interest rates at 1 or 2 or 3 percent higher?" he said. "It simply doesn't make any sense."

Should the debt problem in Greece explode into a full-blown crisis—an International Monetary Fund bailout has prevented a full-scale meltdown so far—Gross predicted that German debt, not that of the US, would be the safe-haven of choice for global investors.

Agência de notação financeira pode rever em baixa a classificação da dívida do Bank of America, Citigroup e Wells Fargo.
A Moody’s alertou hoje que pode vir a cortar o “rating” de três bancos norte-americanos, uma vez que está agora a incorporar um menor nível de apoio por parte dos Estados Unidos ao sector financeiro.

Entre os três bancos que podem ser alvo de cortes, o Wells Fargo é o que tem melhor classificação (A1), o que representa a quarta notação mais elevada na escala da Moody’s. O Bank of America tem um “rating” de A2 e o Citigroup de A3.

A agência assinala que os “ratings” actuais incorporam um apoio elevado por parte dos Estados Unidos ao sistema financeiro do país, que se mantém desde o início da crise financeira em 2008.

A Moody’s vai agora analisar qual o impacto no “rating” se ajustar a sua perspectiva para ao sector, ao remover o apoio forte do Governo norte-americano ao sector, colocando-o ao nível que se verificava antes da crise.

Depois de terem sido considerados “grandes demais para falir” no pico da crise, vários bancos norte-americanos receberam ajuda financeira do Governo norte-americano desde 2008. Os Estados Unidos estão agora a debater a forma de limitar o suporte do Governo ao sector.