Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Ulisses Pereira]

Também tenho lido essa ideia em diversos fóruns americanos e nacionais (muito bem defendida, por exemplo, pelo meu amigo James). Faz sentido e é uma hipótese que considero embora, tal como disseram, a sua propagação pode retirar-lhe força.

Eu continuo a acreditar que, dois ou três dias depois de se iniciarem as hostilidades, o mercado não subirá como a maioria dos investidores acredita e inverterá. O que se seguirá a seguir, não sei... Mas não me choca nada essa posibilidade aqui avançada, pois se desatar tudo a abrir posições curtas mal se inicie a Guerra, isso poderá implicar uma queda logo nesses dias, mas também poderá motivar um "short squeeze logo a seguir".

Acho que há muitos cenários possíveis mas todos estão a ser feitos com base no cenário perfeito, isto é, a Guerra é rápida e sem muitos problemas. Se acontece algo de grave no meio da Guerra, todos os cenários vão por água abaixo.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Eagle Eye]

Parece-me que ele hoje cedeu um pouco... too many bulls already...

[Camisa Roxa]

Já o Nichols acredita num rally até Maio...

[Eagle Eye]

que o cenario preconizado acima nao é bem esse. O Perry pensa que o rally acaba esta semana.
Buy the air war, sell the ground war!
Um abraço, Eagle

[Pata-Hari]

Curioso, concordo com ele e contigo.... Ainda por cima o gráfico do nasdaq ficou mesmo com um ar apetitoso de short. Daqueles ares que se eu tivesse estado online acho que teria mesmo entrado...

[Camisa Roxa]

todo este game plan:

1. rally até começar a guerra, depois algum profit taking que poderá não invalidar a progressão do rally até um pouco mais acima

2. Entretanto muito público ficará bullish e entrará a comprar, especialmente quando a guerra estiver para acabar (pensam que com o fim da guerra as acções vão subir) o que será bear em termos de sentimento

3. Depois devido ao sentimento de mercado estar demasiado bull e a) a guerra terminou e os investidores lembram-se que a economia está num lamaçal ou b) a guerra demora mais tempo que o previsto

4. = Novas quedas dos mercados que o irão atirar para novos mínimos

Esta é uma opinião já bastante vista pelos foruns bolsistas pelo que se calhar por isso mesmo não se irá concretizar, mas por enquanto é a minha preferida

Cumprimentos Eagle!

[Eagle Eye]

Na minha opiniao, na mouche, concordo com quase tudo e parece-me que o David Nichols com o report de hoje aproximou-se desta perspectiva

Comentarios?
Eagle Eye


ChangeWave=92s Daily Market Outlook =96 Sponsored by CyberTrader
Tuesday, March 18, 2003


WHAT=92S HAPPENING NOW

Markets around the globe are embracing the decisive course of=20
events that are about to unfold in Iraq. Equity markets both here=20
and abroad are enjoying sharp advances in anticipation of a=20
sweeping military victory that will very likely get under way=20
before this Saturday. President Bush gave Saddam and his sons 48=20
hours to leave Iraq, which they are refusing to do, setting the=20
stage for imminent war. It also takes about two days to get all=20
key personnel out of the country. So late Wednesday-early Thursday=20
looks like when the U.S. will engage.=20

Following last night=92s statement by the president, equity markets=20
and the dollar continued to rally overnight with the price of=20
bonds, gold and crude oil tumbling. Stock futures here are=20
indicating another solid opening for the Dow, S&P 500 and the=20
Nasdaq this morning. Investor psychology has turned extremely=20
positive before the first shot has even been fired and momentum=20
could carry this market up to major resistance levels which lie=20
overhead at Dow 8,470 (200-day moving average), S&P 500 895 (200-
day moving average) and Nasdaq 1,520 (peak of the October-December=20
2002 rally).


TODAY=92S MARKET LANDSCAPE

The train has left the station and is well down the track. There=20
are more gains ahead, but the easy money has already been made.=20
The market is going to gap open today, making traders and=20
investors pay top dollar at the opening bell. This rally will very=20
likely carry right through Thursday, which will be right in the=20
teeth of the bombing phase of the military campaign. However, it=20
may fade before the war even starts. From my perspective, that is=20
about all anyone can expect to get from this particular rally and=20
Friday should end up being a day of profit taking if not before.=20
Buy the air war and sell the ground war, which starts next Monday=20
as far as Wall Street is concerned. I may be entirely wrong, but=20
that=92s how I=92m playing it.=20

With the horse out of the barn, investors have to do their best=20
imitation of an Errol Flynn movie, trying to get a jump on the=20
galloping steed called the stock market for whatever gains remain=20
in this melt-up scenario. There will be one serious game of hot=20
potato at the end of the week, and if you intend on trying to grab=20
some profits from this rally, you better have one finger on the=20
sell trigger at all times.=20


BEST TELL ABOUT THE MARKET=92S HEALTH

The market will ignore all bad news for the next day or so, but=20
eventually the negative data points will come home to roost. The=20
11% drop in housing starts reported this morning was well below=20
consensus. Building permits were higher than expected, so it=92s=20
probably a wash. The Fed meets today with the market split as to=20
whether they leave rates alone or cut by another quarter point. I=20
think they leave rates alone and shift their bias to that of=20
further easing from the current neutral status. In sum, today will=20
be another up day for stocks. =20


THE BOTTOM LINE

This is a very tradable rally, but I do not believe it is a=20
sustainable rally. Earnings warning season starts next week and=20
our most recent ChangeWave Alliance surveys tell us that first-
quarter earnings for the majority of technology companies are=20
going to be just awful. What=92s worse is that our data points to an=20
even more dismal second quarter as CEOs warn of further=20
deterioration in capital spending as well as IT spending. Case in=20
point, Applied Materials announces this morning that they are=20
cutting 2,000 jobs and will incur restructuring charges of $425=20
million to be taken over the next four quarters. This is just the=20
tip of the iceberg of bad news that is going to hit the tape over=20
the next month and therefore a heavy dose of caution is warranted=20
if you own or are thinking of owning any technology stocks. Buying=20
into this market right now carries with it much more risk than=20
where we were just last Wednesday, so be careful if you are going=20
to play this rally. This market could turn into a very ugly game=20
of musical chairs very quickly.


Bryan Perry
ChangeWave Stocks Editor