CEO da Mota-Engil: “Preço é desafio mas vamos dar proposta à alta velocidade”

[ruicarlov]

Recentemente saltou-me à vista a correctora Plus500, em virtude de aceitar depósitos/levantamentos por Paypal. Tendo em conta que num futuro não muito distante devo receber dólares de uns investimentos via Paypal, a hipótese de não me sujeitar a conversões sucessivas entre moedas pareceu-me interessante. Agora não conheço a correctora e não disponibilizam todos os ETFs de uma das carteiras sugeridas, nomeadamente:
TLT 15%
ITE 5%
GLD/SGOL 15%
DBC 7.5%
VNQ/VNGI 10%
VBR 15%
VPL 10%
VGK 10%
VWO 12,5%

Na lista deles http://www.plus500.pt/AllInstruments/AllInstruments.aspx#ETFs encontro TLT, DBC, VNQ, VGK, VWO.

Falta portanto ITE, GLD, VBR e VPL. Gostava por isso de tentar encontrar equivalentes. Para o ouro encontrei um GOLD.AX que é um ETF sobre ouro físico. É uma boa substituição? E quando ao resto? Algumas sugestões? É que eu perco-me no meio das siglas todas
Tendo uma carteira alternativa, poderia utilizar a conta de demostração para ver como se comportava.

[LTCM]

Bond god Jeff Gundlach is out with his first conference call/presentation of the year titled Year Of The Snake.

The presentation represents his markets outlook for 2013.

Gundlach used the snake imagery because everything is "coiled" and ready to strike.

The economy, European debt markets etc. are all ready for a bang.

[LTCM]

The death of buy-and-hold has been greatly exaggerated.Investors have a tendency to take the wrong lesson from recent experiences, and this one is no different.

Buy-and-hold investors don’t have a lot to show since the market peak — 2000 or 2007 — but that is more about valuation than anything else.

Since the punditocracy declared the end of buy-and-hold investing, something interesting has happened: Ten-year buy-and-hold returns became half-decent. Time has moved today’s 10-year-return start date near the post-2003 dot-com bust lows (March 2003). And three-year returns have outperformed both tactical portfolios and global macro as an investment style.

The lesson here is not that buy-and-hold is dead. Rather, it’s that when you begin investing and the valuation you pay matter a great deal to your returns.

[LTCM]

it’s better to play for a tie by assessing how much risk you are able to bear, allocating the assets in your portfolio carefully and using low-cost index funds to match the market’s returns.

[LTCM]

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[VirtuaGod]

Alguém me explica como ler estes textos em tamanho normal, por favor ? ainda fico cega ao tentar ler

Coloca em ecrã total (botão no canto inferior direito. Fica 5 estrelas, principalmente se tiveres um tablet

EDIT: Uma simples pesquisa no google normalmente tb encontras em versão PDF http://berkson.net/files/stories/files/41/original_MI-StockValuation.pdf

[Negocios Mendes]

Alguém me explica como ler estes textos em tamanho normal, por favor ? ainda fico cega ao tentar ler

Em baixo, tens a lupa para aumentar ou diminuir.

Olá Marta, que tal?

[Pata-Hari]

Alguém me explica como ler estes textos em tamanho normal, por favor ? ainda fico cega ao tentar ler

[LTCM]

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[LTCM]

[LTCM]

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[LTCM]

My long-term view has always been that the debts incurred by developed nations are too high, and cannot be paid back in real terms. (I am not talking here about just government debt, but the total of consumer, business and financial debt. In case like Ireland and Spain, government debt has soared as a result of the banking crisis.). In the absence of rapid economic growth (and it has been absent), the potential outcomes are three; inflate, stagnate or default.

These options have quite different implications for investors. Stagnation has been the path followed by Japan, and as a result the "great rotation" has never happened in Tokyo; government bonds have stayed low and equity markets are still only a quarter of their peak. Japan has the advantage of owing the money to its own citizens, so it has not faced the same external pressure as Greece.

While stagnation is pretty positive for bonds, the other options are not. Default is unlikely (but not impossible) for countries that issue debt in their own currency. But countries without their own currency, like Greece, may be forced to default, or to become financial wards of their richer neighbours (as may happen with other troubled EU nations).

As for the US has the great advantage of issuing debt, not just in its own currency but in the global reserve currency for which there is massive investor demand. It can impose "financial repression" on investors by paying a yield on its bonds that is negative in real terms. It also has the Federal Reserve, which has shown a willingness to buy large numbers of Treasury bonds, to keep yields down. There were signs in the latest minutes that Fed officials have become less enthusiastic about quantitative easing; nevertheless, it is hard to believe that they would not react if yields rose sharply. Furthermore, long-term bond yields also reflect expectations for the average of short-term rates over the maturity of the bond; given that rates are likely to be stuck at zero for some time, one would have to make implausible assumptions about how high rates would go in future years to postulate T-bond yields of more than 3%.

What does this mean for equities? Any assumption that short rates will be at very low levels for extended periods must be based on a parallel assumption that growth will be sluggish. If real growth were 3% plus per annum for the next decade, then US unemployment would fall, wages would rise, and the Fed would be forced to push up rates. Sluggish growth need not undermine equities (there is very little correlation between GDP growth and stockmarket returns) but it helps if the stockmarket starts from an undervalued level; as Robert Shiller's cyclically-adjusted p/e shows, that is not the case in the US. Europe looks a lot more attractive in valuation terms.

Now, of course, it is possible that the authorities might miscalculate and that rapid inflation may ensure as a result of all this monetary experimentation. But rapid inflation, while better for equities than for bonds, is not brilliant for the stockmarket; US share price fell by almost a third, in real terms, during the inflationary 1970s.

So while we may well see fund flows move in the direction of the equity market, it seems hard to believe we will see a massive asset reallocation. Pension funds, for example, are heading inexorably towards bond-heavy portfolios as their membership matures and they reduce risk and aim for income; the same approach will be followed by ageing savers all around the developed world. A mini-rotation is more likely.

[LTCM]

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[ingloriousbasterd]

LTCM Obrigado pelas respostas!

Em relação aos últimos posts, tenho mixed feelings em relação ao dolar.

[LTCM]

Still, the dollar could quickly snap back to its trading pattern of the past few years if last year's crises re-emerge. Japan's government is set on weakening the yen, the greenback's major rival as a haven. And large investors like the dollar in times of turmoil because it is one of the easiest currencies to buy and sell against most other currencies.

"The dollar is king right now…due to a lack of other alternatives you can deploy to in size," said Eric Upin, chief investment officer for Makena Capital Management, which manages more than $16 billion on behalf of large institutional investors.

Others think the dollar will come out the winner, no matter what.

While any eruption of political wrangling over the coming round of fiscal talks would likely send safety-seeking investors to the dollar, the greenback can also benefit from the relatively strong U.S. economy, said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

"Improving risk appetite is not necessarily bad for the dollar, while risk aversion is still good for the dollar," Mr. Shankar said.

[Automech]

LTCM, ainda só lhe passei os olhos muito por alto mas esse "Global in the flow" está excelente. Obrigado.

Ah, e o outro sobre o ser ou não investidor tu não venhas agora lixar a cabeça da malta que acha que é investidor. Isso até pode dar cabo de casamentos pá!

[MWC]

Neste thread é (era) recomendado estar exposto a várias classes de ativos, e o ouro estava lá como ativo descorrelacionado com os restantes. Nesse perspetiva, é recomendado estar exposto.

Estarei a dizer besteira? =)[/quote]


Na minha opinião, não.

[mushis]

Numa carteira de estratégia passiva era interessante estares exposto ao ouro.... Já agora,fizeste algum rebalanceamento?

Muito muito discutível...

Neste thread é (era) recomendado estar exposto a várias classes de ativos, e o ouro estava lá como ativo descorrelacionado com os restantes. Nesse perspetiva, é recomendado estar exposto.

Estarei a dizer besteira? =)

[ghorez]

desde Fev-Abr.

Já pensaste em estar exposto ao ouro directamente?

Já, ainda nao entrei pq desconfio que o ouro vai corrigir..

mushis,

Numa carteira de estratégia passiva era interessante estares exposto ao ouro.... Já agora,fizeste algum rebalanceamento?

Muito muito discutível...

[mushis]

sei disso, e hei-de adquirir.

Ainda não fiz reforços nem rebalanceamentos. como são 10 etf, teria custos elevados para seguir essa estratégia à risca.
Por isso vou esperar mais um pouco e depois faço reforço/rebalanceamento na mesma operação (dentro do possivel).

[MWC]

desde Fev-Abr.

Já pensaste em estar exposto ao ouro directamente?

Já, ainda nao entrei pq desconfio que o ouro vai corrigir..

mushis,

Numa carteira de estratégia passiva era interessante estares exposto ao ouro.... Já agora,fizeste algum rebalanceamento?

[mushis]

desde Fev-Abr.

Já pensaste em estar exposto ao ouro directamente?

Já, ainda nao entrei pq desconfio que o ouro vai corrigir..

obrigado pela partilha mushis.

de nada.

Acrescento que qualquer um pode simular uma carteira utilizando o Google Finance por exemplo, colocando os pesos corretos em cada ativo obterá resultados semelhantes ao que exponho.

[rudifer**]

desde Fev-Abr.

obrigado pela partilha mushis.

[MWC]

desde Fev-Abr.

Enganei-me.

Pensei que o início da carteira fosse em 2012.

Já pensaste em estar exposto ao ouro directamente?

[mushis]

desde Fev-Abr.