Portaria das taxas de regulação da Anacom é inconstitucional

[O Alquimista]

Carlson isn’t without critics, however. Lance Roberts, a financial adviser and a portfolio manager at STA Wealth Management, is generally not a fan of the buy-and-hold aspect of Carlson’s approach. “I respect [Carlson] very much. But managing money isn't as simple as saying, ‘Buy a diversified portfolio of ETFs and hold on.’ That goes out the window when the markets dive 30%,” he wrote in an emailed comment.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-3 ... -20?page=1

[LTCM]

“Certainly, if you want to beat the market and have the best returns every year, you will be disappointed, because a very select few do it consistently over long periods. But having the right investment plan will help you achieve your own goals.”

[LTCM]

As our survey of the outlook for major asset classes demonstrates, investors likely should reconsider their long-term paradigm to multi- asset portfolio construction. This is not because we forecast a bear market in equities or other dramatic turns. It is because The New Neutral has mostly been priced in to asset valuations, and investors should be well-served by differentiating among broad allocations and being diligent in examining specific opportunities to seek those with compelling risk-return potential.

Broadly, our secular bias is to overweight equities and credit fixed income and underweight government bonds. Patient investors may also benefit from overweighting exposure to emerging markets, though they need to be careful about how they execute and stay aware of the risks. Finally, while not suitable for all investors, illiquid, private investments, if prudently chosen, can offer superior return potential and diversification in an era of shrinking government and bank budgets.

The next step is to be tactical, which includes the perennial admonition to "do your homework." Yet from a tactical standpoint, there is one aspect of our New Neutral thesis to consider both for risk and return: We are likely to see substantial bouts of volatility ahead. In the near term, we expect the Federal Reserve will conduct its first policy rate hike later this year. While we expect the Fed to move gradually over time to a lower "neutral" policy rate than in previous cycles, we believe investors may be underestimating the volatility that could ensue from moving off the zero bound. Longer term, we see greater likelihood of flash crashes and general volatility resulting from the global banking system, which as a result of post-crisis regulation allocates less of its balance sheet to making markets. The banks may be "safer," but markets are less liquid at times when liquidity is needed. Another area of focus should be on predicting forward looking correlations. Portfolios that appear well-diversified based on historical data may turn out to be less so in practice.

Issues of liquidity and volatility should be of concern to investors, but they can also be sources of opportunity when securities pricing becomes divorced from fundamentals. There is reason for cautious optimism among investors revisiting their approach to multi-asset portfolio construction for the long term.

[LTCM]

Gold and the miners are now down nearly 4 years in a row. I can only imagine the sort of returns that degree of despair produces. And that’s just the sort of setup that piques my interest.

All in all, I’m fairly certain that the gold mining stocks are now the most hated asset class in the markets. For that very reason, they may very likely be the most attractive opportunity an investor can find.

[LTCM]

The lessons of the long bull market are, in truth, lessons for the next bear market. Although the common investment dream is to be brilliant enough to dodge the bear, for most investors the real opportunity lies instead in being positioned to catch the next bull. (How many bear markets has Warren Buffett evaded?) Six years ago, too many people listened to what might go wrong, rather than think about what could go right.

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=710619

[Afonso80]

Bom dia!

Alguém me consegue esclarecer relativamente à tributação de ETFs sediados na Irlanda, como é o caso do IWDA da iShares e outros ETFs referidos neste tópico?
O Fisco Irlandês cobra alguma taxa? É que tenha andado a ler artigos na internet e é referida a existência de uma taxação ao fim de 8 anos de investimento e uma "taxa de saída" semelhante a tributação de mais-valias.

[LTCM]

A gestão activa é de facto activa.

Since mid-2014, the SEC has been examining whether investors in Pimco’s Total Return ETF received a misleading picture of performance in its early days, from February to June of 2012.

The focus of attention is the valuation of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), performance disclosures and compliance policies and procedures at the time. The regulator has queried Pimco’s practice of buying small amounts of MBS, known as odd lots, then over time pooling these securities together and revaluing the larger holding of bonds at a higher price. The question appears to be the basis for then revaluing these securities once they were held within the ETF, to what Pimco considered their true value.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/727b8456-3a8e ... z3hs7eQu86

[LTCM]

[rsacramento]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=74848&p=1196286#p1196286

[Sr_SNiper]

É para shortar após este ressalto técnico?

vai ver o meu gráfico

Onde está?

[rsacramento]

É para shortar após este ressalto técnico?

vai ver o meu gráfico

[Sr_SNiper]

É para shortar após este ressalto técnico?

[zecatreca_1]

Ora se eu entendo que o mercado está a ser manipulado, para que me vou eu lá meter? Se entendo que os manipuladores fazem o que querem dele e me posso magoar forte e feio, porque me vou lá eu meter????

A Isto chama-se masoquismo. Mas depois de interiosisado o masoiquismo lá decido entrar, e então direi.....espero que esteja é do lado dos manipuladores com a minha posição, porque se assim não fôr está o caldo entornado e eles são os culpados.

Este tipo de pensamento é SURRELAL E RIDÍCULO......

Por acaso o Oscar fez essa comparação na quinta feira, no vídeo dele.
Basicamente diz que os chineses fizeram os mesmos erros que os eua..
Abraços

[LTCM]

Ora se eu entendo que o mercado está a ser manipulado, para que me vou eu lá meter? Se entendo que os manipuladores fazem o que querem dele e me posso magoar forte e feio, porque me vou lá eu meter????

A Isto chama-se masoquismo. Mas depois de interiosisado o masoiquismo lá decido entrar, e então direi.....espero que esteja é do lado dos manipuladores com a minha posição, porque se assim não fôr está o caldo entornado e eles são os culpados.

Este tipo de pensamento é SURRELAL E RIDÍCULO......

[VirtuaGod]

The tactic, in some ways, resembles illegal front-running - - but in this case, it’s perfectly fine. The traders are simply buying stocks before they’re added to the indexes that, by definition, index funds must track.

Isso já é feito há dezenas de anos. Há montes de estudos que analisam a sobreperformance de acções depois assim que o anuncio de que vão para o S&P etc ser feito (e sabes bem que há). Agora tb é tudo pelos ETFs lol. Parece que Wall Street não existia antes dos ETFs.

[LTCM]

It’s an easy way to game the stock market, and getting easier by the day.

With some deft maneuvers, hedge funds and Wall Street trading desks are reaping hundreds of millions at the expense of index mutual funds, the investments of choice for a growing number of ordinary Americans.

The tactic, in some ways, resembles illegal front-running - - but in this case, it’s perfectly fine. The traders are simply buying stocks before they’re added to the indexes that, by definition, index funds must track.

As the popularity of index investing soars to new heights, the emergence of index front-running is raising fundamental questions about so-called passive investment strategies, as well as how indexes are compiled and the role the funds themselves play in elevating costs. By one estimate, it gouges owners of funds tracking the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the tune of $4.3 billion a year, a sum that can double or even triple the cost of such investments.

“Portfolio managers are aware of it, but some of them will say ‘My clients demand an index fund, and I’m going to give it to them come hell or high water,’” Michael Rawson, an analyst at Morningstar Inc., said from Chicago. “Yes, you matched the index return, but the investor is now worse off. You don’t hear about that as much.”

The predicament is growing by the day. Index equity mutual funds have grabbed market share in the U.S. every year since 2006. Assets in passive equity products have swelled to $3.7 trillion as low-fee investments became a favorite in retirement savings plans and a six-year bull market made it almost impossible for stock pickers to beat benchmarks.

[Ocioso]

A seguir deve ser a fase de "despair"

Curiosamente, hoje pensei exactamente o mesmo…
http://www.navegarnabolsa.pt/viewtopic. ... 5&start=70

[LTCM]

A seguir deve ser a fase de "despair"

[Pata-Hari]

Que surpresa....

[LTCM]

A malta da UBS faz cada descoberta...

Overall satisfaction with life rises considerably and consistently as net worth increases. The survey revealed that 73% of those with $1 - 2 million reported being “highly satisfied” with their life compared to 78% of those with $2 - 5 million and 85% of those with $5+ million. Millionaires recognize that their wealth buys them more than what their family needs: 37% of those with $1 - 5 million responded that their wealth allows them to live a fairly luxurious lifestyle, compared to 62% of those with $5+ million.

[LTCM]

James Simons is an American academic and businessman who in 1982 founded Renaissance Technologies, which today is among the best known quantitative investment management funds in the world. We are always curious about how Simons thinks about the world, so we were especially interested when we came across a recent interview with him (a copy is here). h.t. Steve Hsu.

Below is a transcript of part of the interview that we found particularly interesting, as it highlights aspects of Simon’s investing background, and approach to building a firm. Enjoy.

Simons: My father had made a little bit of money, and I had the opportunity to try investing it. And that was interesting. And I thought, you know, I’m going to try another career altogether, and so I went into the money management business, so to speak.

Interviewer: So you started with some of your dad’s money and that got you a taste for, an interest in it?

Simons: Yes, some family money, and then some other people put up some money. And I did that. No models. No models for the first two years.

Interviewer: So what were you doing then? You were just using cunning and, you know, just like normal people do?

Simons: Like normal people do. And I brought in a couple people to work with me, and we were extremely successful. I think it was just plain good luck, but nonetheless we were very successful. But I could see this was a very gut-wrenching business. You know you come in one morning, you think you’re a genius. The markets are for you. We were trading currencies and commodities and financial instruments and so on, not stocks, but those kinds of things. And the next morning you come in, you feel like a jerk. The markets are against you. It was very gut-wrenching. And in looking at the patterns of prices, I could see that there was something you could study here, that there were maybe some ways to predict prices, mathematically and statistically. And I started working on that, and then brought in some other people. And gradually, we built models. And the models got better and better and finally the models replaced the fundamental stuff. So it took awhile.

Interviewer: I would have thought with your background as a mathematician, this would have almost occurred to you immediately. Like you would have straightaway seen this. What was the two year delay?

Simons: Well two things. I saw it pretty early, but, and I brought in a guy from the code cracking place. And he was, I thought, together we’ll start building models. That was fairly early. But it wasn’t right away. But he got more interested in the fundamental stuff. And he says, “the models aren’t going to be very strong,” and so on and so forth. So we didn’t get very far. But I knew there were models to be made. Then I brought in another mathematician, and a couple more, and a better computer guy. And then we started making models which really worked. But you know, the general, there’s something called the efficient market theory which says that there’s nothing in the data, let’s say price data, which will indicate anything about the future, because the price is sort of always right, the price is always right in some sense. But that’s just not true. So there are anomalies in the data. Even in the price history data. For one thing, commodities especially, used to trend. Not dramatically trend, but trend. So if you could get the trend right, you’d bet on the trend. And you’d make money more often than you wouldn’t, whether it was going down or going up. That was an anomaly in the data. But gradually we found more and more and more and more anomalies. None of them is so overwhelming that you’re going to clean up on a particular anomaly. Because if they were, other people would have seen them, so they have to be subtle things. And you put together a collection of these subtle anomalies and you begin to get something that will predict pretty well.

Interviewer: How elaborate are these things? Because in my head I’m imagining, you know, some equation. Like Pythagoras’s equation. You put a few numbers in and something spits out. But are these giant beasts of equations and algorithms, or are they simple things?

Simons: Well the system as it is today is extraordinarily elaborate. But it’s not a whole lot of, you know it’s, it’s what’s called machine learning. So you find things that are predictive. You might guess, oh, such and such should be predictive, might be predictive, and you test it out on the computer and maybe it is and maybe it isn’t. You test it out on long-term historical data, and price data, and other things. And then you add to the system, this, if it works and if it doesn’t you throw it out. So there aren’t elaborate equations, at least not for the prediction part, but the prediction part is not the only part. You have to know what you’re costs are when you trade. You’re going to move the market when you trade. Now the average person can buy 200 shares of something, and he’s not going to move the market at all because he’s too small. But if you want to buy 200,000 shares you’re going to push the price. How much are you going to push the price? How are you going to, you know, are you going to push it so far that you can’t make any money because you’ve distorted things so much? So you have to understand costs, and that’s something that’s important. And then you have to understand how to minimize the volatility of the whole, of the whole assembly of positions that you have, and be, so you have to do that. That last part takes some fairly sophisticated applied mathematics, not earth-shattering, but fairly sophisticated.

Interviewer: What discipline of mathematics, or disciplines — is it multi-disciplinary? Or are we talking…

Simons: It’s mostly statistics. It’s mostly statistics and some probability theory. And, but, I can’t get into what things we do use, and what things we don’t use. We reach for different things that come, that might be effective. So we’re very universal, we don’t have any, but it’s a big computer model. For one thing there is a capacity to the major model. It can manage a certain amount of money, which is rather large. But it can’t manage an enormous amount of money because you’re pushing, you’re going to end up pushing the market around too much, so it was kind of a sweet spot as to how much it’s reasonable to manage. Therefore it would never grow into some behemoth, which would, you know, take everybody out and you’d be the only player. I mean, well of course, if you were the only player there would be no one to play against. There are limitations, at least the way we see it. But we keep improving it. We have about 100 PhDs working for the firm.

Interviewer: That’s what I mean, I mean how did you get to that point? Did you start to think, we need this we need that. What did..?

Simons: We just hired smart people. My algorithm has always been, you get smart people together. You give them a lot of freedom. Create an atmosphere where everyone talks to everyone else. They’re not hiding in a corner with their own little thing. They talk to everybody else. And you provide the best infrastructure, the best computers and so on that people can work with. And make everyone partners. So that was the model that we used in Renaissance. So we would bring in smart folks and they didn’t know anything about finance, but they learned.

Thanks for the advice, Jim. Good stuff!

[Artista Romeno]

http://observador.pt/especiais/deixe-as-emocoes-na-cama-descubra-quanto-pode-ganhar-piloto-automatico/

És tu LTCM?

bom artigo

[GervasioLopes]

http://observador.pt/especiais/deixe-as ... utomatico/

És tu LTCM?

[LTCM]

The euro credit markets were shaken by an unexpected increase in German rates at end-April. The rise was notable for its scale and force: +50 bp in just a few sessions after a virtually unchecked decline over several quarters. This correction can be explained by a convergence of factors: profit-taking, rebounding oil prices, better economic prospects in the Eurozone, and rising inflationary expecta-tions (see Weekly Letter of May 4-7).



Tensions over government bonds have dragged down the total yield of IG bonds over the past few weeks (-1.7% for the period from April 20 to May 13, 2015). It partially erased the positive performance posted since the start of the year. The resilience of HY should be noted (+0% for the same period). This outperformance is explained by the segment's shorter duration and higher spread. The negative contribution of the “rate effect” was offset by a positive “spread effect”.

In fact, the Bund's correction resulted in tighter credit spreads. Since April 20, IG and HY indices have tightened by 5 and 18 bp. How can we explain this strong performance by the credit markets?

As a general rule, a rapid and dramatic rise in yields in the highest-rated countries has the opposite impact on spreads. Spreads tighten as the economic outlook improves. The latest published data on growth in the Eurozone seems to confirm the favourable signs sent by the microeco-nomic indices. The positive results published by European businesses for Q1 confirmed the impact of the euro's depreciation compared to pre-vious quarters (see Weekly Letter May 11-15).
Technical factors have also played a favourable role during this episode of high bond volatility. The primary market has had little activity. At the same time, an analysis of the data published by EPFR shows that weekly flows toward funds dedicated to IG credit have con-tinued. The HY market has had a few redemptions, but in extremely limited proportions.

We are staying positive on credit and maintaining our preference for the high-beta segments (HY, BBB, and financials). We do not consider that this bond sell-off signals a new trend, but rather a correction of past excess: 20% of the fixed income market posted negative yields before the Bund's correction, compared to 13% afterward. The ECB's QE should maintain a favourable technical con-figuration over the months and quarters to come. In fact, Benoît Coeuré announced a temporary acceleration of the ECB's €60 billion asset purchasing programme in May and June. He saw the recent correction as normal; however, he does worry about the very quick adjustment, which reflects the weak liquidity of the bond market. Remember, nearly 90% of the QE is still to come.

[FDPC]

Excelente o texto sobre biotecnológicas.