Governo quer devolver em julho IRS retido a mais desde janeiro

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está tudo a cair: ouro, prata, petróleo; O índice CRB espelha isso muito bem: é preciso recuar a 2008 para encontrar valores mais baixos para o RSI

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o ouro em vários horizontes temporais:

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gráficos do ouro e prata e uma nota para o crb: será que vai continuar a triangular por ali abaixo?

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os últimos movimentos têm todo o ar de um pullback

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o índice das matérias primas continua a ressaltar sobre o suporte

... ou o suporte tem funcionado

isto foi a 14-5; agora o suporte deixou de funcionar

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Is Silver The New Gold?

Investors are talking about gold, and why not? In the past 10 years, the price has climbed more than fivefold from less than $300 to more than $1,500 an ounce. A $10,000 investment made in June 2001 would be north of $50,000 in value today.

But guess what? Silver has actually done quite a bit better, rising from less than $5 to nearly $40 per ounce - good for about an eightfold price gain over the previous decade. So instead of the $50,000 you'd have if you bought gold, your $10,000 would now be worth around $80,000. (For more on silver, read Silver Thursday: How Two Wealthy Traders Cornered The Market.)

Considering this outperformance, it may be time to think of silver as "the new gold." Indeed, there's compelling evidence it could soon replace gold as the precious metal of choice for investors. For example, some analysts project silver prices as high as $90 an ounce by the end of 2011 - more than double current levels. Gold, however, may hover around $1,500 an ounce throughout the year, suggesting there won't be much, if any, money to be made in the yellow metal for a while.

Why Silver's Hot
Silver has skyrocketed for many of the same reasons as gold, a big one being widespread fear about the condition and direction of the economy. Anytime there's economic uncertainty and a risk of higher inflation, just like there is right now, precious metals become increasingly popular because of their perceived safety and reputation as strong inflation hedges.

The big advantage of silver is it's not mainly a store of value like gold. Besides offering an inflation hedge and helping to calm investors, silver has many applications in industry, medicine and dentistry thanks to its electrical and thermal conductivity, usefulness in making metal alloys and other unique properties. Commercial and industrial applications account for about 60% of silver demand each year. (To help take advantage of these increases, read Investing In The Metals Markets.)

Why It Will Get Even Hotter
Whereas gold might be in a cooling phase, silver could be set to soar for several reasons.

1. Industry and Investor Demand Are Set to Rise
These groups may both want to bulk up their silver holdings, but for different reasons. Whereas the pickup in hiring and other signs of economic recovery we've seen could spur higher demand from industry, investors may want more silver because they're not yet convinced the recovery is for real and still want a safe haven for their money.

2. Silver's Popular in Emerging Countries
While the United States and other Western economies have been struggling, China, India and many other emerging countries have been expanding by leaps and bounds. Their industries need lots of silver. Moreover, the number of investors in emerging countries is rising as those areas become more affluent, and many of those investors value precious metals like silver for the same reasons we do.

3. There's a Threat of Higher Inflation
Significant inflation isn't here yet, but it could be on the way (we've all seen food and gasoline prices go up). The government has been printing billions of dollars to cover its huge debt, creating more new money in the past couple years than at any other time in U.S. history. This sets the stage for higher inflation by diluting the money supply and reducing the value of the dollar. (To learn more on how metals increase and decrease in value, check out A Beginner's Guide To Precious Metals.)

The Bottom Line
The economy is at a crossroads of sorts: There are signs of recovery, yet conditions are ripe for inflation. In this situation, silver may be a better investment than gold because there are two sources of demand - investors and industry. Gold, by contrast, is much more at the whim of investors and tends to sink or swim based on their need to feel safe. If the economy really picks up steam and investors start to feel bullish about stocks, gold could quickly become yesterday's news. (To learn more on gold and silver, see Trading The Gold-Silver Ratio.)

http://financialedge.investopedia.com/f ... -Gold.aspx

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crude e brent unidos na mesma luta: subir, subir

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semana de indecisões no crude oil.

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o índice das matérias primas continua a ressaltar sobre o suporte

... ou o suporte tem funcionado

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semana muito dura para os bulls.

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Why Gold Could Go Even Higher

Gold has been considered a currency, commodity and investment for thousands of years. Sought after for both its beauty and worth, gold continues its rally to reach new daily highs. There is speculation among anxious investors about just how high gold could go. While no one knows for certain, there is a strong argument in favor of gold climbing even higher. (For more on investing with gold, check out Getting Into The Gold Market.)

TUTORIAL: Your Guide To Commodities

First, let's look at the factors that drive gold prices.

Central Bank Reserves
Central banks keep paper currency and gold in reserve. For the first time in decades, central banks have begun buying more gold than they are selling, according to the World Gold Council (www.gold.org). As these banks move away from paper currencies and towards gold, they in effect remove a significant of supply from the international gold market, driving the price of gold higher.

U.S. Dollar Value
Gold and the U.S. dollar have an inverse relationship. As the dollar gains strength, the price of gold drops; when the dollar weakens, the price of gold rises. This correlation is due to investor habits. When the dollar is strong, investors will trade in dollars; when the dollar is weak and during times of economic uncertainty, more investors look to gold as a safe haven for their investment activity. This wealth protection measure is used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation or deflation.

Demand
The worldwide demand for gold for jewelry and industrial purposes affects the price of the precious metal. Jewelry is the end product for about 78% of newly mined or recycled gold each year, with 12% of demand attributed to medical and industrial uses. With higher incomes in emerging markets sparking a greater interest in gold, the world has seen a dramatic increase in both demand and prices for gold.

Political Climate
Rising oil prices, political unrest and the threat of violence, such as that seen recently in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, can ignite investor fears about worldwide economic stability. The uncertainty can lead to increased interest in gold as a secure investment, further driving up the price of gold. (To learn more about gold and other metals, see Forex Investing: How To Capture Commodity Fluctuations.)

Can Gold Go Higher?
Gold continues to reach new highs as investors use it as a hedge against inflation concerns and worldwide economic and political uncertainty. As with any investment that has enjoyed an extended rally, investors may be getting nervous that gold's bubble is about to burst. Though these fears may seem logical (what goes up must come down), they are challenged by compelling arguments indicating that gold could indeed go higher. (To read more about the importance of gold, see Why Gold Matters.)

Continued Economic and Political Uncertainty
On April 18, 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded its credit outlook for the United States, stating in a press release, "Because the U.S. has, relative to its 'AAA' peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness, and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable." S&P indicated that there is a 33% chance that it would cut long-term ratings within the next two years for the United States. In addition to worldwide instability, this particular downgrade, coupled with the threat of further ratings cuts, will likely increase gold's attractiveness to already skittish investors. (For more information on international investing and instability, check out Why Country Funds Are So Risky.)

Price Still Within 0.7 Standard Deviations
Despite gold's rise from less than $1,000 an ounce to nearly $1,500 per ounce in the last six months ending April 2011, this represents only a 0.7 standard deviation in gold prices, according to Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS). What this means is that, while gold prices have certainly increased, the price has not strayed far from its statistical mean. Compare this to gold's 180% move in 1979, which represented a 10.3 standard deviation. (To read more on indicators, see 3 Technical Tools To Improve Your Trading.)

Globally Recognized as Wealth Protection
Investors worldwide seek gold as a means to protect wealth and hedge against uncertainty. Interest in gold as an investment is not limited to physical holdings such as gold bars and coins, but also includes investment instruments with gold as the underlying asset, such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), a popular exchange traded fund with more than 15 million in average daily trading volume. (For more information on gold ETF, see The Gold Showdown: ETFs Versus Futures.)

Impact of Emerging Markets
As economies develop and salaries increase in emerging markets, the demand for gold is expected to increase. 2010 saw record demand for gold. India, for example, the largest gold jewelry market in the world, saw a 25% increase in demand in the last decade, with gold purchases in India accounting for 32% of the global total in 2010. Research performed by the World Gold Council shows that cumulative annual demand for gold in India will increase to an excess of 1200 tons by 2020; in 2010, that total was 963.1 tons. (To find more reason to own gold, check out 8 Reasons To Own Gold.)

Better Late Than Never?
With gold approaching $1,500 an ounce, many investors may wonder if it's too late to hop on board. Gold is still far from its January 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 per ounce, indicating that it can undoubtedly go higher. Also, the fact that gold has been a solid performer over the past decade does not automatically guarantee its near-term failure: gold is not necessarily in a bubble that is about to pop; rather, it could very well continue for some time to reach new highs. How long is not known, but today's economic and political environment, coupled with increased demand in emerging markets, points to gold's continued rise. (Check out, Gold: The Other Currency.)

This article is not intended to be construed as investment advice and does not make any investing recommendations. The author does not currently hold any positions in any of the mentioned trading instruments.

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e numa semana o índice veio aterrar no suporte, na forma de um exemplar inverted hammer

gráficos também do brent, prata e ouro, que espelham a intensidade do abalo

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hoje tenho uma breve análise ao índice CRB:

está a viver um bull market

um pequeno indício de uma correcção para o curto prazo (claro que posso estar totalmente errado) será a validade daquela cunha ascendente



lá por cima anda o RSI()

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brent e crude, prata e ouro, todos em gráficos semanais

e uma actualização ao CRB

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prata e ouro imparáveis; ficam os gráficos destes, do brent e do índice das matérias primas (CRB)

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as principais matérias primas estão em grande, e o índice espelha isso mesmo

PS: lamentavelmente o brent não mostrou qualquer respeito pelas minhas projecções

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brent perto dos 120, ouro a consolidar, prata em novos máximos, e um gráfico do CRB

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mais do que o ouro, a prata tem vindo a ser a estrela da companhia (mais do que duplicou o seu valor no último ano)

deixo também um gráfico do índice das matérias-primas

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o índice pouco alterou relativamente à semana passada:

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a semana terminou com um bem visível engulfing bearish (no gráfico de velas semanal)

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fiz duas projs para o brent: uma conservadora e outra não

obviamente as proj não pretendem "adivinhar" o máximo, mas sim extrapolar a consolidação anterior

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hoje trago dois gráficos semanais - mercadorias e brent - e mais um do ouro

tudo em cima: as mercadorias e o brent podem estar esticados, mas o mercado é que sabe

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o rsi aproxima-se de valores extremos (para este bull market)

[Elias]

Preço dos alimentos sobe para novo recorde
03 Março 2011 | 09:57
André Veríssimo - averissimo@negocios.pt

O índice mundial da FAO voltou a subir em Fevereiro, devido ao aumento do preço dos lacticínios, cereais e carne.

O custo dos bens alimentares voltou a aumentar em Fevereiro, superando o recorde registado no mês anterior. O índice de 55 “commodities” da Food And Agriculture Organization subiu para 236 pontos, face aos 230,7 de Janeiro.

O indicador compilado pela agência alimentar das Nações Unidas subiu pelo oitavo mês consecutivo. A puxar pelo preço dos bens alimentares estiveram sobretudo os cereais, que em Fevereiro aumentaram 3,68%.Mas também os lacticínios subiram, com um aumento de 3,97%, enquanto a carne aumentou 2%.

A recuperação da procura por parte dos países em desenvolvimento e os fenómenos meteorológicos que afectaram as colheitas estão a ser determinantes para a subida dos preços.

O milho é a matéria-prima alimentar que mais sobe, ao ganhar 92% nos últimos 12 meses, enquanto o trigo aumentou 62% e a soja 42%.

A encarecimento dos bens alimentares é um dos factores que contribuiu para a onda de protestos no Mundo Árabe, que levou já à queda dos regimes na Tunísia e no Egipto. Tensão que está a fazer subir o preço do petróleo, que é determinante para o custo dos alimentos.

“A subida inesperada do preço do petróleo pode exacerbar ainda mais a já precária situação nos mercados de bens alimentares”, afirmou David Hallam, director do departamento de comércio e mercados da FAO, num comentário divulgado pela Bloomberg.

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para concluir a actualização gráfica ao índice das mercadorias: