CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Obrigado.

É a propósito da efeméride dos 5 mil pontos no Nasdaq. Velhos tempos...

Aqui fica ele!

"Gains From Nasdaq Run Still Taste Just as Sweet"

By James J. Cramer
03/10/2003 10:22 AM EST



"Happy top-of-the-market anniversary, Nasdaq!

One of the great misunderstandings of the top of the Nazz was the action in the last three months of the bubble. We tend to think of the bubble as one consistent rip, a juggernaut that gained and gained and gained.


Not true. The last thousand points, the last few weeks, were simply breathtaking. There was an incredibly nutty move in the end where some stocks were making daily gains that were equivalent to lifetime gains these days. Stocks that were unbelievably priced went to ridiculously priced first in weeks, then days, then hours.

I point this out because those of us who are professionals wanted every bit of that last gain because the "blow off" afforded the best gains.

I know that my fund was bent on nailing every bit of those last gains and did so, going from incredibly bullish to incredibly bearish overnight because that's what was necessary to capture these gains.

I think that people forget that sometimes that you had to love the market right until the moment you hated it. If you moved too soon and shorted it, you were wiped out. If you moved too late and stayed long, you were wiped out.

Yet those who liked it up until the end have been pilloried as if they liked it through the bitter end.

Nope.

This anniversary should remind us not only about the painful after-effects of the bubble, but also that there indeed were gains, real gains, to be had right until the last minute. And any manager worth his salt had to try to get those gains, even if it appears in retrospect that he liked it when it would have been better not to!

That's the way it was with the bubble. Those last six weeks gave you returns that you will covet for the next six years, if not 60 years. I, for one, am eternally glad I grabbed them.

You know why? They don't asterisk gains. They don't write in the reports "These gains were made in the last six weeks of the bubble."

The banks take those gains just like any others.


Never forget that either, as we celebrate the now-infamous run to 5000 on the Nazz. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Era este: "Gains From Nasdaq Run Still Taste Just as Sweet"

Deve ser interessante.

Hmmmm... Qual seria:
"Short Base Is Too Scared to Brake This Slide"?

"Gains From Nasdaq Run Still Taste Just as Sweet"

Seria algum destes?

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Ulisses, havia um artigo do Cramer hoje, antes desses dois, que devia ser interessante ... não me lembro do título.

"Advice to the Fed: Stay Calm and Don't Cut"

By James J. Cramer
03/10/2003 12:50 PM EST


The last thing we need is another rate cut from the Federal Reserve. That truly would show how desperate the Fed is. We are cutting taxes, printing money and spending money. Let's see how that all plays out before the Fed takes rates to Japanese levels.

I, for one, still believe in an economic recovery after the war with Iraq. I have detailed why I do many times. But what I don't want to see are lower short rates.


No new money is going to be forced into investment because of that new low rate. The only signal it would send is one of panic. The days when the stock market rallied on Fed cuts are so long ago that I can't believe that anyone thinks of that linkage anymore.

Other, better instruments -- the tax cuts, the deficit -- are going to boost the economy. Don't look to the Fed. It has done its work. All we want from the Fed is silence. And no signals of panic. That would just set the recovery back even further at this point. Panic, not high rates, is the enemy. Calm, patience and time are the friends of the recovery. I sure as heck hopes the Fed gets that.

What else could it be thinking? "

(in www.realmoney.com)