http://www.financialsense.com/Market/ar ... 3/0204.htm
Excerto:
The Short Seller's Nightmare
What is even more important to understand is that these supply deficits occurred at a time when there has been no investment demand for the precious metals. These deficits have occurred as a result of only industrial demand. The precious metals markets are too small to handle worldwide investment demand that is now starting to surface around the globe. In the case of gold, there is always the possibility, but unlikely event that central banks could supply the markets with gold with their last remaining reserves. According to GATA, central bank gold sold or leased out is estimated to range between 10,000-15,000 tonnes of gold. This is about 45% of the central bank holdings of gold. The central bankers are looking pretty foolish for selling off half of their gold reserves at the bottom of the markets. They would look even more like idiots if they were to sell off their remaining reserves in order to keep prices suppressed. A greater possibility is that they begin to start buying it again as they are now doing in the Middle East and in Asia.
In the case of silver, there are no large central bank hoard of silver that has been stashed away that could be easily lent to the market. In the case of silver, it is consumed not stored like gold. The situation in silver is even more dire than gold.
Why do you think Warren Buffett owns close to 130 million ounces of the stuff?
The silver and gold deficits have taken place against a background of meager investment demand. If investment demand returns, as I believe it will, the price of silver is going to explode in a more dramatic fashion than the price of gold. Both precious metals are just in the beginning phase of a decade-long bull market. The price of metals is going to go much, much higher and stay there for years until enough new production is brought on board or enough scarp and coin is brought to market as prices explode.
In the meantime, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report on the COMEX, silver short positions are net 66,781 contracts, which equals 333,905,000 ounces of silver sold short against COMEX supplies of around 107 million. From where and from whom will the supplies come from? As Sharefin’s research shows in the above charts, supply deficits over the last few decades have been made up from above-ground stockpiles. Where are the stockpiles that will make up the deficits of the next twenty years? Furthermore, what happens if investment demand returns as major fiat currencies around the globe depreciate against the king of all metals? There is simply not enough gold or silver currently in existence at today’s prices to handle investment demand.
Enviado: 8/3/2003 0:01