CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

LTCM Escreveu:com um bocadito de azar o Dwight Anderson vai desaparecer durante 6 meses, aproveita o retiro espiritual e recolhe mais 2 ou 3 biliões e, o mais tardar no final de 2009, está aí com outro HF a fazer exactamente a mesma coisa.

tiagopt Escreveu:Atenção que as commodities ainda não entraram oficialmente em bear market. Para mim, um título só entra oficialmente em bear market quando quebra com consistência a LTa de longo prazo. Pelo menos nas empresas ligadas às commodities que eu costumo seguir a LTa mantém-se intacta. Está a dar-se agora o contacto com a linha.
Aliás, foi uma dessas LTas que me estragou a entrada curta na monsanto. Por isso, atenção. Tanto para os longos como para os curtos

Bloomberg Escreveu:Ospraie to Close Flagship Hedge Fund After 38% Loss

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Ospraie Management LLC, the investment firm run by Dwight Anderson, will close its biggest hedge fund after slumping 38.6 percent this year because of bad bets on commodity stocks.

The New York-based Ospraie Fund fell 26.7 percent in August after a ``substantial sell-off'' in energy, mining and resource equity investments, Anderson said in a letter to investors yesterday.

The shuttering of the Ospraie Fund, which opened in 1999 and managed $2.8 billion at the start of August, leaves Anderson's firm with three funds overseeing more than $4 billion of assets, down from $9 billion in March.

Ospraie plans to return 40 percent of the fund's assets to investors by the end of September and another 40 percent by year- end, Anderson said in the letter. The remainder, mostly held in so-called illiquid investments, may take as long as three years to distribute, he said.

Clients were locked into the fund for two or three years, depending on the fees they paid. The fund's loss of more than 30 percent triggered a clause that would have allowed investors to withdraw money at the end of September.

Ospraie's remaining funds include the $1.2 billion Special Opportunities Fund, which makes private-equity-type investments in companies such as miners and barge operators; the $200 million Real Return fund, a so-called long-only fund that bets on rising commodity prices; and Wingspan, which invests in other hedge funds that together manage $2.5 billion.

Anderson has faced losses before. The Ospraie Fund fell 19 percent in the first five months of 2006 on losing bets in the metals market. That year the firm also closed its Point Fund, which had slumped 29 percent.

``The fact that I had a horrible quarter is a statistical probability, and we had always told people there is that possibility,'' Anderson said in an interview last year. ``We do everything that we can to manage the risk, and I think we're better at it today than we were a year ago.''

Branc0 Escreveu:E mais perto de nós temos o Fogueiro que recentemente comprou uns calls em alguns sectores. Essa da "bolha" e do "era obvio" é muito giro quando já aconteceu. Olhando para o histórico é tudo obvio.

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) — Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said a tumble in commodities from records represented a temporary reverse in a long-term rally. “I don’t see that it’s the end of the bull market,” the chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in an interview in Bangkok before speaking at an investor conference later today. “Until either a lot of supply comes on stream or the economy collapses, the bull market will continue,” he said. Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. Sixteen of the 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell this month, after the index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest such drop in 28 years.“I am contemplating whether it’s time to get involved in base metals again,” Rogers, 65, said today. “I haven’t bought any for awhile.”Gold fell to the lowest since October on Aug. 15, while platinum had the biggest intraday loss since 2001. Aluminum has dropped 18 percent from a record on July 11 and Nickel is down 26 percent in the past year. Marc Faber, 62, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash said Aug. 15 that commodities may have peaked. “Whether that is a final peak or an intermediate peak followed by higher prices, we don’t know yet. It could go lower,” he said. Rogers, who moved to Singapore after selling his New York townhouse last year, said he was still optimistic about agricultural commodities and China’s economy, favoring the tourism, education, infrastructure, and power generation sectors.

Onorio Escreveu:So pa quem nao viu o video, esse HF pertence a Lehman Brothers

Celsius Escreveu:Não percebo como estas coisas aconteçem. É que o "estouro" da bolha das commodities até ra esperado...

Celsius Escreveu:Não percebo como estas coisas aconteçem. É que o "estouro" da bolha das commodities até ra esperado...

MarcoAntonio Escreveu:E já agora, para mostrar como os grandes (os chamados 'tubarões') também "levam"...