Rendimento das famílias trava a fundo no início do ano

[Camisa Roxa]

Nasdaq Commentary

The volatility continues as we split the shortened trading week with two bullish and
two bearish days. We really didn?t make much progress in any direction, but we are
setting some pretty strong support and resistance lines above the bearish lines we
broke out of at Tuesday?s open.

The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 1349.02, making the weekly high at 1352.07 on
the same day. Yet still, it really didn?t move ahead convincingly, after making new
weekly lows under the 10 and 20 day EMAs. It did however find support at the critical
1320 level, only falling under it slightly for a short time on Friday.

That said, while we?re still not necessarily bullish, it is becoming apparent that
these big surges were not flukes ? there are buyers out there and they?re willing to
take action.

Look for the primary support to be at the 20 day EMA line, which is now at 1328. If
we can stay above that over the next few days, we?ll likely go bullish. Should the 10
day EMA cross over the 20 day EMA (which seems likely now), that will multiply our
bullishness.

Support is at 1325 while resistance is at 1360.

Daily Chart of the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX)

S&P 100 (OEX) Commentary

The S&P 100 chart is not as encouraging to the bulls as the Nasdaq Composite chart.
While the index did move higher, there are some stark problems.

The 425/430 trading range we had set in the Mid-Week update further solidified on
Thursday and Friday. While we made highs above it, we also made lows below it ? both
on Friday. And unlike the Nasdaq, we did NOT make the high close for the week on
Friday, nor did we even make the high for the week on Friday. We did both of those on
Tuesday, and only slipped down as time went on.

So now, not only is there strong horizontal resistance at the 430 level, we?re
getting a double dose of that resistance from the 20 day EMA line - also right at
430. This is going to be a significant level, and we won?t be bullish until we get
over it.

We?re neutral until it?s clear that the market is done playing ping-pong on a
day-to-day basis.

Support and resistance have been tightened to 425 and 430, respectively.

Daily Chart of the S&P 100 (OEX)

The Bottom Line

It appears that we have broken out of January?s bearish trendlines, but have
currently only established horizontal ones. At least it?s a start, though. With most
of our economic indicators essentially flat, many investors are finding little reason
to engage in any activity, bearish or bullish. Perhaps this is for the best, as we
are maintaining our neutral posture until we get firmer chart patterns. We are
approaching some important technical crossovers, so tune in to the Mid-Week update on
Wednesday.