Amazon: Merrill Downgrades; Fears Margin Estimates Too High
By Eric Savitz
Amazon.com (AMZN) are coming under early selling pressure after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Justin Post this morning cut his rating on the stock to Neutral from Buy
“while Amazon remains one of the faster growers in the Internet sector, and this is not a Kindle-sales-related downgrade, we are downgrading the stock to Neutral,” he writes.
Post offered five reasons for the downgrade:
* Near-term and long-term Street margin expectations are now too high. For Q3, he sees GAAP operating profit of $316 million, with a 4.5% margin, vs. the consensus at $380 million, and 5.3%.
* Checks indicate decelerating growth, which could weigh on the multiple.
* Increasing competitive pressures in digital media which could continue to impact headcount.
* Stock trades at 1.4x forward sales, near the middle of his 1.2-1.8x comfort range.
* More economic indicators are trending negatively, suggestion less potential for top-line acceleration.
He actually is raising his 2010 revenue estimate to $32.87 billion from $31.8 billion, to reflect a move in the Euro/dollar rate to $1.27, from $1.19, but he remains below the consensus on EPS at $2.81, with the Street at $2.90.
His new price target is $140, down from $150.
AMZN this morning is down $3.12, or 2.5%, to $120.18.
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