25 de Abril. As 27 horas e 30 minutos que fizeram a Revolução

[vold]

Caro acintra,

antes demais quero dizer que eu também tenho poucos conhecimentos de AT, tenho andado a tentar aprender e estou a analisar isto sobretudo como um exercício (sério nas análises e acredito no que digo, mas sendo ainda muito verdinho não posso garantir 100% de validade). não quero de maneira nenhuma influenciá-lo com as minhas ideias, são meramente indicativas

tendo o fecho sido no interior do canal não penso que tenha sido rompido, aliás, fechou mesmo abaixo da linha superior. para o canal ter sido efectivamente rompido o fecho teria que ser acima do canal e para segurança, devia haver uma confirmação.

fica o gráfico da Sirius onde se pode ver o que acabei de dizer.

[acintra]

queria deixar um gráfico actualizado, mas não consigo aceder à minha plataforma.

fechou abaixo da linha superior do canal, não acho que o tenha quebrado, mas deu um claro sinal de força.

como primeira resistência só fecho o fim do gap que era também um suporte.


abraço

Caro Vold, o topo do canal não era os 2,257?
Pelo menos foi o que me pareceu no gráfico, mas como não entendo de AT achei que tinha rompido o referido canal.

[vold]

queria deixar um gráfico actualizado, mas não consigo aceder à minha plataforma.

fechou abaixo da linha superior do canal, não acho que o tenha quebrado, mas deu um claro sinal de força.

como primeira resistência só fecho o fim do gap que era também um suporte.


abraço

[acintra]

Com este fecho a 2,28, apesar de ter estado a 2,32 achas que rompeu o canal ascendente?
Qual a próxima resistençia?

[vold]

também li essa notícia e foi apontada como facto bastante positivo.

não entrei hoje, este ano já apanhei umas tareias, ainda vai tudo por água abaixo e apanhava-me num gap down.

esperar pela confirmação da fusão, pode ser que ainda dê uns trocos

[acintra]

Tudo indica que vai acontecer a fusão. Se não aceitassem condições mais pesadas, não continuavam com as restruturações da divivda.

XM restructures about $600 million in debt, a step closer to purchase by rival Sirius
July 18, 2008: 03:45 PM EST


NEW YORK (Associated Press) - XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. on Friday said it has reached an agreement to restructure about $600 million of debt, putting itself a step closer to completing its purchase by rival Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.

But it comes at a cost.

Holders of about $600 million of senior notes with an interest rate of 9.75 percent will get at least $400 million in cash and $200 million in new debt. Some analysts were surprised by the size of the upfront cash payment.

Cowen and Co., which had projected in May a "worst-case scenario" cash outlay of $22.5 million, said in a research note Friday that the two satellite radio companies nonetheless have $625 million in cash on hand, a quarter of it through a revolving credit.

The new notes also will carry a higher yield or rate of return than the old debt _ at least 13.92 percent a year, or 15 percent or higher annually if less than $150 million of new debt is issued. The old notes mature in 2014, the new debt in 2014, or 2013 under certain conditions.

"It's certainly expensive," said Joseph Bonner, an analyst with Argus Research in New York. "But getting any financing these days is expensive, the way the markets are."

In exchange, debt holders have agreed to waive their right for the notes to be repaid quickly once there's a change in control at the company. The waiver expires Aug. 31.

Refinancing XM's debt is a critical part of the $3.1 billion all-stock acquisition, which is awaiting its last regulatory approval, from the Federal Communications Commission. About $1.5 billion of debt has some variation of the change in control provision.

In July, XM restructured $400 million in senior convertible debt due next year. The company swapped an interest rate of 1.75 percent for 10 percent.

In return, noteholders agreed not to claim that the acquisition represents a "fundamental change" that would require XM to repay the debt within a set time after the acquisition.

Shares of XM were up 8 cents to $8.52 in afternoon trading. Sirius shares rose by 16 cents to $2.26.

[vold]

fica aqui o update, para se perceber o que disse no post anterior.

[acintra]

Ultimamente nos fechos costumam puxar por ela, mas quando está com valorizações inferiores há de hoje. Vamos ver, mas a fusão cada vez está mais perto. penso que estará resolvida até final do mês.

[vold]

acintra estava a ver agora mesmo as cotações e parabéns! 7% até agora, está ali perto do gap. mas ainda não abandonou o canal ascendente que pode ser a flag de que o crómio falou.

até confirmação do negócio deve manter-se lá dentro. apesar de ter subido acho que deves manter-te atento.

[acintra]

By Molly Peterson

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Communications Commission member Jonathan Adelstein wants an ``independent monitor'' to ensure that Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. comply with the agency's conditions if they are allowed to combine.

Adelstein said today in a Bloomberg Television interview that he may supply the third vote needed to approve the $3.09 billion deal if the commission toughens conditions proposed last month by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. Adelstein, one of two Democrats on the five-member FCC, said he hopes to meet with the two companies next week.

[acintra]

Analysts: New conditions on Sirius-XM deal will be tough but probably won't kill deal
July 17, 2008: 06:04 PM EST


NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Meeting a regulator's tough conditions for approval of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s purchase of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. may be tough but isn't likely to derail the deal, analysts said Thursday.

"These do seem to be onerous additional conditions," said David Joyce, an analyst at Miller Tabak. But, Joyce said, "I don't think Sirius will walk away. I think they will still work on negotiating the conditions."

Jonathan Adelstein, an FCC commissioner, told The Associated Press Thursday that he would vote in favor of the deal if the companies agree to his tougher requirements.

Joyce said the concessions would be easier for Sirius and XM to swallow if they are compensated for setting aside 25 percent of their capacity as Adelstein has asked.

So far, two of the five members of the Federal Communications Commission have voted to approve Sirius' $3.1 billion buyout of the nation's only other satellite radio provider.

Sirius announced an agreement to buy XM in February 2007.

A vocal opponent of big media mergers, Democrat Adelstein was thought to be against the deal. But he may wind up casting the swing vote on the five-member commission and tip the balance for the deal's approval.

Adelstein wants the companies to cap prices for six years and make one-fourth of their satellite capacity available for public-interest and minority programming, among other conditions.

Adelstein's demands echo those of U.S. Rep. Ed Markey, chairman of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, the Massachusetts Democrat who wrote the FCC Tuesday asking for similar concessions. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin had sought a three-year price freeze and a reserve of 12 of 300 channels for public-interest programming.

"Six years sounds a little egregious, depending on what conditions Sirius are attached," said Kit Spring, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. But Sirius "may be amenable if it's a price freeze with a certain inflationary adjustment."

Spring said if the companies agree not to raise prices for six years, he would have to reduce the estimated $5 billion in annual savings and synergies he's projecting.

Sirius and XM need the savings, since neither company has had an adjusted operating profit or positive free cash flow on its own.

The two have been hemorrhaging cash as revenues have been insufficient to cover operating expenses. They are also saddled with debt: In the first quarter, which ended March 31, Sirius had long-term debt of nearly $1 billion while Washington, D.C.-based XM had $1.7 billion.

Last month, Sirius said it expects to post an adjusted operating profit and positive free cash flow in the first year after it buys XM.

New York-based Sirius said it expects savings of about $400 million in 2009 from combining their operations. It is forecasting $300 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding capital costs for satellites.

Shares of Sirius rose 3 cents to $2.10 on Thursday, while XM was down 17 cents to $8.44.

[Crómio]

Olá,

Aqui vão os meus 5 tostões, de amador:

Pode estar a formar uma bandeira ou cunha, o que significa que ao quebrar a LTA de curto prazo pode cair com velocidade, por isso acho que não seria mau de todo colocar um stop baseado nesta LTA.

Talvez por volta dos 1.9.

Não a vejo nada Bull.

Abraço

[vold]

deixo aqui uma análise com uma perspectiva mais alargada. tive uma ajuda do finviz.com

mantenho a ideia de que neste momento está numa fase importante, a negociar no final daquela cunha ascendente.

se quebrar a resistência, será provável chegar à ltd que trás desde dezembro do ano passado e que provavelmente coincidiria com a resistência nos 2.50.

se quebrar aquela pequena lta o mais certo será primeiro testar o suporte nos 1.80, caso haja força suficiente nas quedas, chegar à linha descendente que tem servido de suporte às quedas.

gostava que um "pssional" se debruçasse sobre isto e fizesse a sua própria interpretação. utilizei isto como um exercício, é certo que vai ser o mercado a dizer se estou certo ou não, mas uma opinião qualificada tem quase o mesmo valor.

abraço

[acintra]

Embora os "price target" tenham o valor que nós sabemos, ás vezes costumam incomodar. O mais recente dado ,salvo erro. pela J.P.Morgam foi de 1.70 usd.No entanto se quebrar em alta sobe e acbou.

Foi a GS com mais uma das suas manobrars de tentar arrasar.
Eu aproveitei o downgrade e entrei e mais tarde aumentei a posição. Neste momento é unica acção que tenho e a 1,86€ mas estou com o dedo no gatilho caso começe a deslizar, tem aguentado bem mesmo nos dias de vendaval.

Caro Vold, obrigado pelo gráfico e pela análise.

[corvo47]

Embora os "price target" tenham o valor que nós sabemos, ás vezes costumam incomodar. O mais recente dado ,salvo erro. pela J.P.Morgam foi de 1.70 usd.No entanto se quebrar em alta sobe e acbou.

[vold]

acsintra aqui fica o gráfico e a minha modesta análise

parece que está num momento de decisão que coincide com a fusão

se quebrar a resistência tem muita margem para subir, se quebrar a lta parece-me que também terá muita margem para descer. penso que qualquer dos movimentos será com "força bruta"

boa sorte se estiveres longo, vai fazendo o update

(os cfds de venda estão desactivados nas plataformas saxo)

abraço

[acintra]

está por um fio a decisão para autorizar a fisão.

Potential deciding vote on satellite radio deal would vote 'yes' in exchange for conditions
July 17, 2008: 03:33 PM EST


NEW YORK (Associated Press) - The potential deciding vote in the U.S. government's review of the $3.1 billion merger between satellite radio companies told The Associated Press he will vote in favor of the deal if the companies agree to tougher conditions.

So far, two of the five members of the Federal Communications Commission have voted to approve Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s buyout of rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. That is one vote shy of a majority.

FCC commissioner Jonathan Adelstein, a Democrat, wants the companies to cap prices for six years and make one quarter of their satellite capacity available for public interest and minority programming, among other conditions.

If the executives agree, Adelstein told the AP that he will be in favor of the deal.

Adelstein circulated his recommended conditions among the other four commissioners Thursday. His proposal seeks more concessions than the companies offered voluntarily one month ago. That offer led to FCC chairman Kevin Martin's recommendation that the deal be approved.

Robert McDowell, a Republican, has since joined Martin in recommending approval. Deborah Taylor Tate, also a Republican, is undecided and had been considered the possible swing vote.

Adelstein has been a vocal opponent of big media mergers, so his offer is somewhat surprising. But with strong odds that Tate would eventually vote yes, his move would make the deal more palatable for critics.

"It's critical that if we're going to allow a monopoly, that we put in adequate consumer protections and make sure they're enforced," Adelstein said.

[acintra]

Desculpem voltar á carga, mas alguem podia dar um toquezinho de AT aqui na Sirius. O motivo é o que escrevi no post anterior.
Obrigado.

[acintra]

Será que alguem pode colocar um gráfico s.f.f.? estou dentro desde o downgrade da GS e não sei se vou aguardar pela decisão da fusão ou sair agora com mais valias.
A minha intenção foi aguardar pela decisão que acho que vai ser positiva. Já só falta um voto para ser aprovada.

July 11, 2008: 04:50 PM EST


WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin needs to convince one more commissioner on the five-member body to sign off on his recommendation that a pending merger between XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) be approved.

Republican Commissioner Robert McDowell has voted with Martin to approve the merger with conditions, such as a three-year price freeze for subscribers and 24 channels reserved for minority and public programming, according to a person with knowledge of McDowell's vote.

XM and Sirius already have agreed to those conditions in negotiations with Martin and some lawmakers.

People close to the talks say the fate of the deal lies in the hands of Republican Commissioner Deborah Taylor Tate because the two Democrats on the commission - Jonathan Adelstein and Michael Copps - aren't likely to sign on to the merger.

Martin said Friday that he wants the other commissioners to formally submit proposals about the pending merger.

"I think some of the commissioners do have concerns about the transaction, and all I'm saying is if they have concerns, they need to articulate what they would like to see done about it," Martin said at a press conference.

Martin left open the possibility that other conditions could be placed on the merged entity. "Other commissioners have concerns, and they want conditions," he said.

People familiar with the deal say the conditions laid out in Martin's recommendation were carefully negotiated, and there may be little wiggle room for further changes.

The Justice Department has already signed off on the deal with no conditions.

Martin has met with each of the commissioners about his proposal, but he said the undecideds haven't indicated whether they would sign off if other conditions were added.

"They've said they've got issues and concerns about it, but they haven't necessarily proposed this is how they want them to be added," Martin said.

Shares of XM Satellite closed down 3.1% Friday, while Sirius was unchanged.

[rosario]

Hoje está em forte queda, não é aconselhavel entrar.

Obrigado. Já agora qual o preço de entrada (estimativa)?

A reagir bem à MA50 diria que 2,90$ seria um bom valor.

[jm4330]

Hoje está em forte queda, não é aconselhavel entrar.

Obrigado. Já agora qual o preço de entrada (estimativa)?

[kuby]

Encontra-se hoje a testar a MA50, depois de ter tb hoje quebrado o suporte ascendente que a acompanhava desde meados de abril.

Tomar uma posição é arriscado neste momento.

[rosario]

Hoje está em forte queda, não é aconselhavel entrar.

[Laaz Rockit]

Será isto??

[Sky]

Boas tardes
Caso seja possível, agradecia um gráfico da empresa acima indicada.
Obrigado

...........