CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

"Planning for a Swoon"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/8/2008 9:51 AM EDT


"Feels like we are going to unwind the Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) euphoria/"bailouts are all successful" moments that we had last week. We are overbought, we have gone about as far as the bailouts can take us and we have no catalysts other than earnings, which so far haven't been that great.

The Fed meeting is too far away and I don't expect anything to happen imminently from Bernanke and company. Washington Mutual's (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take) low price doesn't help. Why should you pay over those guys for a company that is not going to do well for quite a long time? Sure we could get a premium bid for Nat City (NCC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and we could get more moves out of Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is at last dismantling. But we lack other catalysts, and I am suspicious of the big ramps in ag and nat gas and minerals even though I think those are the great secular growers.

Any decline comes with rearguard rallies, for instance an attempt to fade the futures down and rally the market on some bit of macro news that is unexpected.

I just don't trust it here ... and I am a bull. I want a pullback. It won't be instant, and it won't be lasting, I just want the overbought to work off and the shorts to return with a vengeance to do their mindless pushdowns -- this time, no doubt, based on old deals gone bad -- Tribune (TRB - commentary - Cramer's Take), anyone? -- or deals in the pipeline failing -- will someone end the misery of Clear Channel (CCU - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

It's more gut than anything else, but when we hit plus-5 on the oscillator, that's been the sign of a big swoon, and we did, so I think we will. It's been the only thing that has been bankable since this market went awry, and even though I think the bottom's been put in, that doesn't mean we'll have a straight line to the top.

Random musings: One good place to go in an impending selloff is Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is really putting on the numbers we should be getting in a recession. ... Keep track of the scrips for Schering-Plough (SGP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Merck (MRK - commentary - Cramer's Take), they are much more positive than people thought would happen.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Schering-Plough. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"Tech Stocks Face Real Trouble"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/8/2008 6:49 AM EDT



"When people say "tech" on TV, it is almost always followed with "cheap," or "low valuation." To which I say, "So what?" AMD (AMD - commentary - Cramer's Take) looked cheap until last night. Motorola (MOT - commentary - Cramer's Take) looked cheap and there turned out to be no there there. Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) looks cheap but all I hear are earnings cuts. Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) looks cheap, but who cares?




Lots of cheap out there.

Here's my question: where's the catalyst?

Shorts? Stronger growth in the second half? No, the only catalysts I look for in tech are product cycles, and other than Salesforce.com (CRM - commentary - Cramer's Take) (nice move there), Research in Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and maybe Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), because we need a new phone there already, there are no new product cycles to speak of.

Layer on the fact that RIMM has a product cycle and had a great quarter and is below where it traded at its high after the quarter -- can you imagine where that would be if the market were to turn down -- and you can see that tech may be cheap for nobody knows how long.

When that happens, you get a chain reaction when the market turns bad. Suddenly you have Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) thinking about overpaying, at least that will be the scuttlebutt. You have Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) going down because AMD says things are weaker. You have Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) going down because AMD's not going bankrupt. You have Freescale on the cover of Business Week making it clear that there won't be any deals from this sector any time soon. Next you will have Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) head down on a slowing ad story from some other company.

That's what happens when you are in it only for valuation and there aren't any product cycles to stem the tide.

I have heard tech praised endlessly this year, and yet it has done nothing. I think it is about to do less than nothing right now. I think it is going down.


Sure, IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take) will keep hyping its stock, and I don't think HPQ is doing badly. How low can Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take) go, it is so long-term cheap. Nokia's (NOK - commentary - Cramer's Take) having a decent quarter. EMC's (EMC - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter is OK, but it does have VMware (VMW - commentary - Cramer's Take), which, unfortunately, is not doing that well despite the hype.

But they can't exist in a vacuum. There's not enough here to warrant further rallying.

I want to be careful of this group. The negative pin action could be swift and there is no great secular trend, like food shortage or oil or ethanol or Chinese building to keep things rolling along.


At the time of publication, Cramer was long EMC. "

(in www,realmoney.com)