CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Patinha lancas-te um belo brainstorming com o teu topico sobre a educacao.

Excelente artigo Marco Antonio. Estou integralmente de acordo contigo.

Num bear market ha oportunidades fabulosas para fazer dinheiro. A que comecou no final de janeiro e um exemplo tipico.

Dito isto eu nao estou convencido que estejamos num bear de medio ou longo prazo.

Mas as ocasioes tem que ser muito bem escolhidas.As vezes e preciso muita maturidade para ficar de fora. Como diz o Warren Buffet "The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything; you can wait for your pitch."

Eu ja tive um "pitch" este este ano no final de janeiro que me deu um home run perfeito.
A unica coisa que exijo de mim mesmo e de so mrgulhar quando me sento confortavel e agora nao estou confiante.

Este suposto fundo duplo nao me parece uma boa oportunidade, o racio risk / reward parece-me fraco e o VIX nao mostrou panico. Cheira-me mais a um sucker's rally...

Mas o mercado tera sempre razao e eu so de vez em quando.

Um abraço,
Eagle Eye

Eagle Eye 2002 Escreveu:The reason behind this is simple: At no other time are short positions such a high percentage of all stock holdings. And since short position profits disappear when stocks go up, short squeezes turn into exaggerated rallies.

Essa questão, bem pertinente, eu abordei-a neste artigo que reeditei há pouco tempo aqui no Caldeirão:

http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocio ... hp?t=59517

Como sempre, comentários interessantes, eagle .

Dear WaveRiders,

In a move meant to pump liquidity into the financial markets, the Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that it would lend Treasurys in exchange for mortgage-backed securities and other toxic subprime debt.

The biggest single-day point gain on the Dow since July 2002 followed.

For months we have talked about expecting sharp bear market rallies, and yesterday was just another example.

Here's an interesting stat for you: Nine of the 10 biggest single-day moves up in the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all occurred during a bear market.

The reason behind this is simple: At no other time are short positions such a high percentage of all stock holdings. And since short position profits disappear when stocks go up, short squeezes turn into exaggerated rallies.

With the Fed's latest move, short sellers were forced to buy back the shares they had borrowed and sold, or else watch their profits evaporate, or worse yet, move from winning positions to losing ones.

Add in the fact the market was down seven out of the eight days preceding this rally and terribly oversold, and you can see that the fuse was ready to be lit.

Use this opportunity to continue to lighten up on your long positions and to start or add to a position in our short-side ETFs. The best way to make money from these kinds of investments is to add them on rallies.

The bear market is still on. It's not time for the "all clear" signal to start buying stocks. Not with all of the write-offs in financials still to come and consumer spending pulling back even more, as our latest survey data clearly shows.