CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Enviado: **19/1/2008 2:14**

Costuma-se dizer (desculpem)
quem não chora, não mama...
e eles estão a chorar tudo o que podem, para sacarem o máximo numa nova subida, o que não quer dizer que a médio prazo vá tudo dar no mesmo..

Enviado: **19/1/2008 1:57**

1. Talk is cheap

2. Show me the money

Enviado: **18/1/2008 18:28**

Stocks fall after Bush announces plan

By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer
3 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Wall Street resumed its downward trek Friday as skittish investors, unable to hold on to much optimism about the economy, drew little comfort from President Bush's stimulus plan.

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Investors had already pulled back from a big early gain, with the major indexes trading mixed as Bush began to speak. By the time the president finished announcing a plan for about $145 billion worth of tax relief, the indexes were well into negative territory.

"It's disappointed in the size of the economic growth package. Wall Street's showing its displeasure," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "Honestly, I think the institutional investors understand the limits to the government's ability to enact economic change."

The Dow Jones industrial average, up more than 180 points in morning trading, was down 85.11, or 0.70 percent, at 12,074.10. The Dow plunged 306 points Thursday amid deepening pessimism about the economy.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 15.40, or 1.16 percent, to 1,317.85, while the technology-focused Nasdaq composite index fell 10.38, or 0.44 percent, to 2,336.52.

Disappointment with Bush's plan came as investors were searching for those companies that might be weathering the economic slowdown well.

Some are indeed doing better than expected — like International Business Machines Corp., which told Wall Street late Thursday to raise its 2008 profit estimates for the tech company, and General Electric Co., which posted a fourth-quarter profit rise Friday.

But many others are struggling. Washington Mutual Inc. reported a steep loss late Thursday for the fourth quarter, as Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch did earlier in the week. With the banking industry trying to fix its shrinking portfolios and preparing for more distress in consumer debt, the economy may only have the government to fall back on — and Wall Street didn't hear enough from Bush Friday to placate investors.

Government bonds showed little movement after Bush's speech. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, stood at 3.63 percent — flat with late Thursday.

On Thursday, a dismal reading on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and ratings agency downgrades of bond insurers sent the market tumbling. On Friday, a Bank of America Corp. analyst cut its ratings on three bond insurers — MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group and Security Capital Assurance Ltd. — to "Neutral" from "Buy."

MBIA fell $2.06, or 22 percent, to $7.16, after a sharp drop Thursday.

Ambac rebounded from Thursday's drop, though, rising 25 cents, or 4 percent, to $6.49. The company said Friday it will ditch its previous plan to raise $1 billion in capital, a decision many investors considered an ill-advised move to maintain its ratings.

Security Capital Assurance fell 21 cents, or 11.5 percent, to $1.61.

A better-than-expected reading on consumer sentiment came as a pleasant surprise to investors Friday, but ultimately did not help Wall Street save its early advance. The University of Michigan's index, which most economists expected show a decline for mid-January, rose instead. Though not a perfect predictor of consumer spending, the report gave Wall Street some hope that Americans' buying might not drop off too precipitously amid worries about a recession.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a gauge of future economic activity skidded 0.2 percent in December, registering its third consecutive monthly decline.

Federal Reserve monetary policymakers meet Jan. 29-30, and the market widely expects them to lower the key interest rate to stimulate the economy, perhaps by a half-point. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday that more rate cuts are "quite possible."

The dollar rose against most major currencies, while gold slipped.

Crude oil futures fell 20 cents to $89.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 9.97, or 1.46 percent, to 670.60. Meanwhile, chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. late Thursday said its fourth-quarter net loss widened, but the loss was smaller than Wall Street predicted. AMD surged 63 cents, or 10 percent, to $6.97.

IBM rose $2.25, or 2.2 percent, to $103.35 on its strong outlook.

Washington Mutual rose 8 cents to $12.54. Many investors, in anticipation of an even bigger fourth-quarter loss, had driven the savings and loan's stock sharply lower Thursday.

In overseas trade, Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 0.56 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 0.35 percent. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.01 percent, Frankfurt's DAX fell 1.34 percent and Paris' CAC fell 1.25 percent

Enviado: **18/1/2008 18:18**

AP
Bush Calls for $145 Billion Economy Plan
Friday January 18, 12:06 pm ET
By Andrew Taylor and Deb Riechmann, Associated Press Writer
Bush Calls for Economic Package Worth About $150 Billion

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush, acknowledging the risk of recession, embraced about $145 billion worth of tax relief Friday to give the sagging economy a "shot in the arm. "
Bush said such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. And he said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product -- the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing.

White House advisers say that, in current terms, 1 percent would amount to around $145 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

Bush said that Congress and the administration need to settle on something as soon as possible to "keep our economy growing and create jobs."

"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," he said.

The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

"There is a risk of a downturn," Bush conceded in his remarks at the White House.

He outlined several criteria for the package to meet: It must be "big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours," it must be built on "broad-based tax relief," it must take effect right away but be temporary, and it must not include any tax increases.

Specifically, he called for tax incentives for businesses to make new and major investments "this year." He also called for tax relief for individuals -- probably to come in the form of one-time rebates -- to spend "as they see fit."

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:48**

Creio que o Bush tem de trazer pelos menos confiança aos Amercicanos, a bolsa reflete o sentimento dos Americanos, aquilo anda tudo entaladinho...

Creio que vai guardar a parte das boas novas para si...por isso o pres do Fed nao diz nada :mrgreen:

.

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:45**

asilva,

http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

Cumps.

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:41**

Em que dia é a reunião da FED
thanks

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:38**

nov71 Escreveu:parece que todos estavam á espera que ele fosse falar num plano especifico e pelos vistos segundo um assessor nao vai apresentar nada em concreto...a partir do momento que essa new saiu...os indices dos states quebraram...a montanha pariu um rato de novo

Mas vais ver que os indices americanos ainda vão fechar em alta... Nós na Europa é que somos uns patinhos...
É frustrante mas é assim...

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:37**

Sinceramente não estou à espera de um rally para dizer que o mercado inverteu. Qualquer rally a darem-se nos índices vai ser um convite para eu entrar com umas posições curtas sobre o mesmo. Inclusive no dia da reunião da FED, independentemente do corte das taxas de juro tenciono ver as reacções e shortar antes do fim da sessão (no dia logo se verá...).

Quando for para estabilizar espero uns dias de range-bound trading enquanto os touros voltam a ganhar confiança. A unica coisa que poderá mudar isto é haver um sell-off a sério (>5%) nos índices para que haja realmente níveis de oversold. Enquanto descemos a conta-gotas todos os dias não vamos lá... só serve para os ursos irem ganhando mais confiança e os touros irem perdendo a pouco e pouco.

É por ter esta opinião (que pode estar completamente errada) que não percebo a pressa de alguns em ir à caça dos "saldos". Vai haver tempos para saldos, não vão abrir um dia às 09h e fechar às 10h ... vamos ter uns dias/semanas valentes para comprar empresas baratinhas.

Por mim, fiquei convencido com o urso quando quebrou os mínimos de Agosto. Para mudar de opinião o mercado vai ter muito que subir, mas isto sou eu claro e cada um deve investir de acordo com as suas convicções apoiado com a análise técnica (se estamos ursos esperamos por confirmação técnica da descida se estamos touros esperamos por indicadores/níveis que dêm sinal de inversão).

Para já vejo os índices a perderem mais uns 5% com o S&P a arranjar algum suporte por volta dos 1280... vamos a ver se é quebrado com a facilidade dos anteriores.

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:34**

parece que todos estavam á espera que ele fosse falar num plano especifico e pelos vistos segundo um assessor nao vai apresentar nada em concreto...a partir do momento que essa new saiu...os indices dos states quebraram...a montanha pariu um rato de novo

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:26**

Estava a tentar compreender o que fez com que fez com que os mercados levassem uma porrada desta maneira...
Isto está muito perigoso, muito instavel... Parecia que já estava a estabilizar e pelos vistos enganei.me...

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:25**

Obrigado pela opinião Branc0...

Assim já vou mais descansado de fim-de-semana.

Enviado: **18/1/2008 17:22**

Não vi em directo mas li noutro forum que ontem os mercados começaram a descer no preciso momento em que Bernanke se "preparava" para falar. O homem ainda não tinha aberto a boca e começou o sell-off... provavelmente um "buy the rumour, sell the news" bastante particular.

A não ser que Bush tenha alguma surpresa (duvido) esperaria que acontecesse o mesmo hoje com o seu discurso.

O mercado está particularmente a castigar a falta de pro-actividade dos dirigentes norte-americanos. O mercado está em pânico e o FED está sentado a olhar para o calendário à espera do dia da reunião... Greenspan nunca faria isto e Wall Street está pouco habituada ao estilo "académico" do novo presidente.

Curioso para ver como fecha a semana... Dow abaixo dos 12 mil? :?:

Enviado: **18/1/2008 15:41**

ontem os mercados abiram optimistasem relação ao que o Sr. Bernake iria dizer ...como a montanha pariu um rato...foi o descalabro....

... e se o plano do Bush não convencer o mercado...será que vamos ter uma repetição do que se passou ontem?

Por via das duvidas continuo de fora a assistir.

CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

E se o bush não convencer...

WE

E se o bush não convencer...