CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

U.S. November Trade Deficit Widens More Than Forecast on Oil

By Shobhana Chandra

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in November as Americans spent a record amount on imported oil, overshadowing gains in exports.

The gap between imports and exports grew 9.3 percent, the most in two years, to $63.1 billion from $57.8 billion in October, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The shortfall with China shrank.

A weaker dollar and growing demand from Asia and Latin America also boosted exports to the highest ever, which may prevent U.S. factories from slumping even more. Sales overseas are one of the remaining bright spots as a worsening housing slump and growing unemployment threaten to stall economic growth.

``The main thing driving the deficit wider is the higher oil prices,'' Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``Outside of that, we're likely to keep seeing some improvement. Trade is one of the main reasons why the economy will be able to avoid a recession.''

The trade gap was forecast to widen to $59.5 billion, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists. Estimates ranged from a deficit of $56.5 billion to $64 billion. The November gap was the widest since September 2006.

Imports rose 3 percent to $205.4 billion, reflecting record purchases of crude oil as the average price shot up to $79.65 a barrel, the highest ever. The jump in petroleum demand accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in the trade gap.

Purchases of capital equipment, such as telecommunications gear and industrial engines, and consumer goods also contributed to the increase in imports.

Influence on Growth

The increase in purchases of capital and consumer goods suggests gains in inventories and spending may offset some of the drag from the wider trade deficit. Still, today's report may prompt some economists to lower forecasts for U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth.

Exports climbed 0.4 percent to $142.3 billion in November, setting a record for a ninth consecutive month. Overseas sales of automobiles and parts and refined energy products, such as fuel oil, strengthened.

The trade gap with China, the second-largest U.S. trading partner after Canada, decreased to $24 billion from $25.9 billion in the prior month.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit widened to $53.3 billion from $51.2 billion.

Oil Prices

Even higher energy prices this month may keep the trade gap elevated in early 2008. Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged to a record $100.09 on Jan. 3, suggesting imports will continue to climb, economists said.

Even so, the economy may escape a recession as consumer spending softens without collapsing and exports continue to grow, a Bloomberg News survey of economists this month showed. A shrinking trade gap added 1.4 percentage points to third-quarter growth, the most since 1996. The boost surpassed the contribution from consumer spending for the first time since 1991.

A weaker dollar, which makes American-made goods less expensive for overseas buyers, is helping to lift exports. The dollar is down 8 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.' biggest trading partners over the last 12 months, based on Federal Reserve data.

DuPont Co., the third-biggest U.S. chemical maker, is among companies benefiting from overseas sales. The Wilmington, Delaware- based company said this week that profit improved last year and 2008 earnings will be higher than previously forecast because of rising crop-seed demand and sales outside the U.S.

`Taking Off'

``Our growth outside the United States and our new products are taking off even faster than we thought,'' Chief Executive Officer Charles O. Holliday Jr. said in a Jan. 9 interview with Bloomberg Television.

The gap with China continues to be a political sticking point. Some U.S. lawmakers accuse China of deliberately keeping its currency undervalued to boost exports and have proposed sanctions unless currency controls are loosened. The U.S. is China's biggest trading partner after the European Union.

Henry Paulson, who visited China for a fifth time as Treasury secretary in December, said this week that the cabinet-level talks he organized between Chinese and U.S. officials last year are paying off, citing improved safety measures on Chinese exports and a stronger yuan.

``I am satisfied that we are achieving results,'' Paulson said. ``They've clearly been appreciating the currency,'' though not enough, Paulson said on CNBC television Jan. 8.

China today reported its overall trade surplus narrowed in December to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion. Exports grew at the slowest pace in two years.