Montenegro anuncia redução de IRS nas rendas, isenção de mais-valias e maior dedução à coleta

[pvg80713]

os 1400 estão mesmo ali........

[Ulisses Pereira]

"A Break of S&P 1400 Is Just What We Need"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/7/2008 8:05 AM EST


"Have you ever seen a week such as we had last week without a call for a crash on Monday? I mean, where is all the talk of a crash on Monday?

Oh wait, I know -- it's not October. It's not September. I guess that means folks don't believe we can have a crash!

I know that is anecdotal, but you have to admit that it's quite odd. Especially since, despite all the gloom and doom on Friday, the VIX barely made it to 24.

One of the things I look for in terms of panic is a jumpy VIX. By jumpy, I mean something that jumps off the page at you. It's not a particular level, it's a pattern that stands out; some might prefer to call it a spike.

Now, a down opening today has the potential to get that VIX jumpy. A down opening today could see it gap higher and therefore it would then look as though it has moved out of its current trading range. That would probably be considered jumpy.

On the chart below, I've circled the March low, the August low and even the pathetic November low. In all three cases the VIX jumped out of its pattern, but there is no such pattern currently.

A gap up in the VIX today, or a spike intraday would make it appear jumpy. What we have now is not what I would call a spike or a jump.




This goes hand in hand with the put/call ratio. Why oh why can't we get the Index ratio over 200%? I think this goes back to the time of the year that I discussed above. Look at it this way: In September -- a month in which we rallied, I would point out -- we had three separate readings in this indicator over 200%. We had one in October, a few days before the Fed eased and the S&P enjoyed a 30-point rally and Nasdaq added about 60 points. But since then, we have not had one day with a reading over 200%.

Don't you find it incredible that we had little or no trouble getting the Index folks to buy puts in September, but in November and December, and so far in January, they have chosen not to load up? I say it has to do with the calendar. This probably confirms why we're not hearing talk of a crash on Monday.

I am certainly not calling for a crash on Monday. I would never do that; let's leave that sort of chatter to the folks who want to be gurus and make those kinds of outlier calls. I would say that it seems everyone has their eyes glued to 1400 on the S&P, with lots of discussion about how this level must hold. But why must this level hold? Isn't it better if it doesn't hold?

If everyone's desire is for it to hold, then breaking it can bring about fear and panic. Breaking can bring about a jumpy VIX. Breaking might even bring about an Index put/call reading over 200%. A save only manages to keep hopes alive. As we know, hope is not a good stock market emotion. "

(in www.realmoney.com)