CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Àlvaro Escreveu:É verdade, na Europa o BCE põe a mão por baixo dos touros. E faz muito bem que a lógica do mercado é subir.

Àlvaro Escreveu:Bear, a barreira no Spx está em 5800. Talvez por aí o Dax inicie uma correção. Há fundamentais muito favoráveis a Alemanha: o preço da energia e os grandes investimentos na China. A Siemens está la´em força.
Parece-me provável que o Dax supere os 24 mil pontos no curto prazo.

Àlvaro Escreveu:Os alemães não brincam com o mercado, hoje mesmo Merz tenta ser eleito.

German debt vote scheduled
Germany’s lower house of parliament is set to vote on Tuesday on a proposed massive increase in state borrowing in order to fund a surge in defence spending, which could boost Europe’s largest economy and stimulate growth across the region.

A two-thirds majority is required to pass the legislation to change the constitutionally enshrined borrowing rules to allow higher spending on security, as well as creating a €500 billion fund for infrastructure.

Should the legislation pass the Bundestag lower house of parliament, it still has to go to the Bundesrat upper house, which represents the governments of the 16 states that make up Germany.

Optimism about Germany’s fiscal reset plan has seen money pour into Europe, with the DAX leading the way, gaining more than 16% year to date.

BearManBull Escreveu:Curiosamente a lider da AfD é lésbica e a companheira é uma imigrante.

Atendendo ao perfil tenho ideia que com uma liderança do estilo Trump a AfD poderia ter ganho as eleições.

Os liberais pagaram o preço de se converterem ao socialismo e desapareceram do mapa. É triste que tudo que mete palavra liberal na Europa mais tarde ou mais cedo acaba sempre na retórica de aumentar o poder do estado.

Revised probabilities of post-election coalitions:
Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD):

Likelihood: 35%
Rationale: Still a solid option given historical precedent, though the SPD might push back to avoid being overshadowed by the CDU/CSU again.
Jamaica Coalition (CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP):

Likelihood: 30%
Rationale: A viable mix of center-right, environmental, and pro-business policies, but policy friction (like on climate and taxes) could complicate talks.
Kiwi Coalition (CDU/CSU + Greens):

Likelihood: 15%
Rationale: A smaller, more streamlined coalition focused on climate and conservative policies — but lacks a clear majority without extra support.
Traffic Light Coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP):

Likelihood: 10%
Rationale: Unlikely unless the SPD performs surprisingly well and the Greens/FDP agree on enough fiscal and social policies.
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP):

Likelihood: 10%
Rationale: A centrist fallback if other coalitions stall, though the SPD might hesitate to rejoin the CDU/CSU again.
Not considered:
AfD alliances: 0% — all major parties have ruled out working with the far-right AfD.
Far-left coalitions: Also very unlikely, as Die Linke and BSW don’t have the numbers or allies to form a viable government.

Energy shock from Russia
China: From customer to competitor
Skimping on investment
Lack of skilled workers
Bureaucracy