Ao minuto: Trump critica violações do cessar-fogo e aponta especialmente a Israel

[Camisa Roxa]

Não sei porquê, mas o pessoal tem todo a ideia que ele é bull.
Mas ele está bear desde Janeiro já!

Agora aponta um fundo para sexta feira e um rally a começar para a semana


Vamos lá ver

[Pata-Hari]

LOL, bolassssssssssssss, que animadorrrrr. O nichols não era o sempre bull ?

[Camisa Roxa]

WEDNESDAY a.m.
February 12, 2003



Crude
by David Nichols

The CIA and FBI have been all over the wires warning about a possible Al Qaeda attack coming this week. Bin Laden -- true to his evil form -- has also just surfaced with one of his twisted, cryptic warnings.

In the past, his warnings have often been the prelude to actual terrorist attacks. So there is certainly cause for concern, and we can deduce from the recent action in the markets that most people aren't thrilled at the prospect of being long during such a period.

But let's think about this for a second. There are lot of things you can say about Al Qaeda and Bin Laden -- but you have to include "clever and resourceful" on the list of adjectives to describe them. It strikes me as highly unlikely that they will now -- right at this crucial moment of NATO bickering -- give the United States exactly what we need to solidify our resolve and our coalition to move aggressively into Iraq.

It doesn't make sense. Al Qaeda likes to see us on the defensive, and scrambling to build a world coalition. And another thing: our own government warnings about potential terrorist attacks are just about as effective as an actual attack, as far as Al Qaeda is concerned. It keeps people nervous, keeps their name in the spotlight, and builds up their sense of power. That's all they really want.

I'm bringing this up because this likely non-attack could actually be a trigger for a pretty good rally, starting next week. It's one of those strange market intangibles in this weirdo age we're living through that the market can rally strongly when there hasn't been an expected terrorist attack .

Along these lines, we'll be looking to take our profits in our Rydex positions on further declines this week. Tom McClellan, whom I rely on for his nifty timing models of potential turning points, is also pointing to Friday Feb 14th as a potentially important bottom. This fits in well with the scenario I've just outlined.

One more war/terrorist sentiment gauge that we can throw into the mix is the price of crude oil. Lately crude has been on a parabolic, blow-off move to the upside. Here's the weekly chart:



On the daily chart, we can see crude oil rarely deviating from its straight line up. This is a good lesson for every trader out there, how it can be a huge mistake to get in front of a runaway market. Shorting oil has been an easy path to the poor-house.



But when you see a market go parabolic like this, then it's a big clue that the end-game is really playing out. The good part is we won't have to guess when oil is going to stop going up, we can simply watch. We'll see the parabola broken to the downside (you can mentally trace that out on the weekly chart above), and big red candles.

At that point, worries about the war and Iraq and Al Qaeda and all that will be at least starting to dissipate somewhat, and the "war overhang" in the equities markets may also start to lighten.

But we'll want to see very strong evidence before concluding that peace is breaking out, psychologically-speaking. We certainly don't need to jump the gun.

An important point to make about the spiking price of crude is that oil price shocks are strongly correlated with triggering global economic recessions. You can trace every major post-WWII recession back to a jump in the price of oil.

If the price of oil doesn't come down soon, then we're staring at another potentially serious slowdown for the global economy over the next few years. Oil can only stay at these stratospheric price levels for a few months before irrevocable economic damage is done.

Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis



SENTIMENT TANK: The tank filled a fraction of a point on Tuesday to close at "81% full" of negative sentiment. Sentiment is consolidating at a pretty darn bearish level. The reading on the tank may be a bit artificially high, however because of the anomalous There's still room for one more push to a real extreme, up near or at 100%. It looks like that could take a definitive exogenous catalyst, though. Not that there aren't plenty around and available. But we never know just when it will get thrown into the mix and start some exothermic reaction.

SHORT-TERM: The lame hourly advance made little headway and the gauge rolled into neutral. From here it COULD move quickly into either a continuation of its advance phase, or else into a 'fall out of bed' sort of climactic down whoosh.

MID-TERM: The mid-term gauge progressed another 4 points in its decline to 89. Our Confidence Diffusion Index (CDI) clicked forward again to 5 (out of 7).

LONG-TERM: The weekly gauge backed off a point to 42 in its decline phase. The weekly can back up and still be in a downtrend.. How? It acked off one point since the prior day but it remains far ahead of the prior week's closing reading of 33. The weekly CDI remained at 5.