Preço das casas dá maior salto de sempre no arranque da garantia pública

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Sticking With the Bottom-Up Picture"

By James J. Cramer
02/07/2003 09:44 AM EST


"The top down and the bottom up are diverging now at a pace and a rate I have never seen before. And don't I know it; I work next to Larry Kudlow, the economist who has topped The Wall Street Journal's list of best forecasters for two years running. He only looks at the top down. I keep an eye on the top down, but I am strictly bottoms up.

The top-down numbers, the numbers compiled by the government, show a real turn in part of information technology. They show that the fourth quarter was quite a good quarter for spending, with real momentum building.


I, on the other hand, am stuck with the conference calls, the calls of Cisco, Tech Data, Microsoft, EDS, Verizon, SBC Communications and the like. Those show dreadful trends, trends that are worsening, not getting better. In fact, January was clearly worse than December for information technology spending. And things are weakening still. Cisco's the classic example. It point-blank said January was weak.

So who do you trust? I have to trust the companies, because that's what I have been taught and what has worked for me. It makes for difficult moments with my excellent television partner, Larry, because the research is so darned at odds with the statistics.

But I stick with what got me here. The turn, the elusive turn, is certainly not here -- unless you mean the turn down further; that's the one I can make the case for. "

(in www.realmoney.com)