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[Camisa Roxa]

NASDAQ COMMENTARY

The Nasdaq Composite has managed to hold the level of support we've mentioned from
1300-1320 with most of this week's trade within the key support/resistance band.

Below 1300 and we'll look for a move down to our next target on the downside of
1200-1250, as we've mentioned.

What's setting the stage for the follow through decline is the likelihood of the
trend side bias, which has clearly been lower, winning out and the bears forcing
another move down to penetrate the support.

The key 10dayEMA (red) has clearly kept the buyers at bay with several run ins
between the two in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, momentum continues to push lower as well in the form of the traditional
momentum represented in the MACD.

As a result, from a price technical perspective, a move above 1340 will bring us to
neutral from bearish in the short-term, while a move above 1370-1380 will bring us
from bearish to neutral in the intermediate-term. It will take a move above 1450 at
this point to bring us out of the long-term bear trend.

From a directional bias perspective, the ADX (gray) continues to lag, while the
negative trend remains. This suggests the power of the downtrend is not particularly
strong, which explains the recent choppiness and lack of a true trend even though the
market's been held at bay by the 10day for several weeks now.

OEX COMMENTARY

As for the OEX, the market continues to hold above the key fibonacci level at 427
with several holds from 425-430. However, our bias remains the same on this market as
well as the consolidation period is likely to result in the bears gaining more
momentum and force to push the market lower.

This is primarily due to the down trending 10dayEMA (red). The market is holding onto
horizontal support/resistance around 430, while the OEX is also making lower highs
due to the descent of the 10day.

As a result, there's a high degree of probability the break will come in the
direction of the trend when there's a battle of trend and support, or resistance.

From a weekly perspective, the market has had several reversals from the major
support/resistance line at 480, as indicated by the red arrows. This, along with the
break back below the 440-midline suggests a move to at least the lower side of the
400-480 trading range may be in order, and thus supports the bearishness of late.