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Chegado a casa, aqui fica o artigo que pediste.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"There's No Bright Side to Gold's Rise"
By James J. Cramer
02/04/2003 12:49 PM EST
"Gold's killing us. I know it has become fashionable for some to craft a tale that says gold's rally shows that there could be a comeback in store for the U.S. economy. But I am nothing if not empirical in my judgment about stocks, and I think the gold rally is mutually exclusive when it comes to anything good happening in the rest of the market.
The idea of a gold rally as an OK thing is based on the notion that we could use a little inflation. The next part of this bright-side argument is that if gold is going up, that is a precursor to having more pricing power, which means there could be some margin expansion for companies.
I just don't see it that way. Gold, to me, is zero-sum. If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment." Given that most of the big trigger-pullers out there have been schooled with the same text that I have, the gold rally is just dreadful for stocks. It is reminiscent of times we had big rallies in the drillers; there always would be some Pollyanna out there saying the rally in the drillers was good news because it showed economic activity. Sure, but it was the wrong economic activity!
This contra-argument goes back to the one John Roque presented last week, the one that allows people to say that the dollar decline is also good because it benefits the commodity producers. Let's be clear on this one, too: I don't want the dollar to go down anymore. The dollar's decline is becoming a foreign referendum on President Bush's plan to pay for a war with tax cuts. Right now, the referendum says the president's plan is just plain unrealistic.
Gold up, dollar down, let's not mince words. We don't want either of these trends from here. We want gold declines and dollar stability. We can't come up with reasons to like every scenario out there. That's simply not rigorous enough. It is terrific if you don't have money on the line; it is a disaster if you are rationalizing why you should commit new money to the market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"There's No Bright Side to Gold's Rise"
By James J. Cramer
02/04/2003 12:49 PM EST
"Gold's killing us. I know it has become fashionable for some to craft a tale that says gold's rally shows that there could be a comeback in store for the U.S. economy. But I am nothing if not empirical in my judgment about stocks, and I think the gold rally is mutually exclusive when it comes to anything good happening in the rest of the market.
The idea of a gold rally as an OK thing is based on the notion that we could use a little inflation. The next part of this bright-side argument is that if gold is going up, that is a precursor to having more pricing power, which means there could be some margin expansion for companies.
I just don't see it that way. Gold, to me, is zero-sum. If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment." Given that most of the big trigger-pullers out there have been schooled with the same text that I have, the gold rally is just dreadful for stocks. It is reminiscent of times we had big rallies in the drillers; there always would be some Pollyanna out there saying the rally in the drillers was good news because it showed economic activity. Sure, but it was the wrong economic activity!
This contra-argument goes back to the one John Roque presented last week, the one that allows people to say that the dollar decline is also good because it benefits the commodity producers. Let's be clear on this one, too: I don't want the dollar to go down anymore. The dollar's decline is becoming a foreign referendum on President Bush's plan to pay for a war with tax cuts. Right now, the referendum says the president's plan is just plain unrealistic.
Gold up, dollar down, let's not mince words. We don't want either of these trends from here. We want gold declines and dollar stability. We can't come up with reasons to like every scenario out there. That's simply not rigorous enough. It is terrific if you don't have money on the line; it is a disaster if you are rationalizing why you should commit new money to the market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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