Petróleo sob pressão após ataque dos EUA ao Irão

[Camisa Roxa]

Nasdaq Commentary


The Nasdaq Composite tried to reclaim the 1380-1400-support/resistance band, which we
mentioned was broken last Friday and thus caused serious technical damage to the
market.

We stated the market would need to recover this lost ground and in a hurry if the
bearish selling pressure were to be staved off.

This didn?t occur. The market gave it its best effort Thursday with a reversal to
close above the high of the low day and back within the key 1380-1400-band.

However, given the technical, horizontal and trend following resistance from all time
perspectives from 1380-1400, the close at 1388, just below the midpoint of the band,
was not enough to embolden any buyers.

As a result, the market took the path of least resistance Friday and in the process
plotted a mid level ET sell signal. Sometimes these sell signals will be reversed,
particularly when they are high level and pull back to a short-term EMA.

However, in this case, it?s not the case. The market is under pressure of all key
EMA?s from the 10 to the 200day and thus has a major trend side bias to the downside.


We mentioned should the bulls not prove able to recover and reclaim 1380-1400, a test
of 1300-1320 should be in the immediate future, while an ultimate reach down to
1200-1250 would be likely. This appears to be the more likely scenario given the
aforementioned characteristics, so we?re ultimately targeting 1250-1300.

In looking at the weekly chart of the Nasdaq, we notice the prior week?s bearish
outside-bar reversal has managed to embolden the bears and force another close back
below the key 10weekEMA (green). As a result, given the break back below the
1400-major support/resistance line and the lower high put in place the week prior, we
remain bearish on the market going forward for a move to 1200-1250 from a weekly
perspective.

S&P 100 (OEX) Commentary

As for the OEX, we expected a break below 455-460 to bring us clean air for a
continuation move to retest 440, at least, with an option to tag 400-420.

We mentioned with this week?s early continuation-moves lower to break down this key
support/resistance from both horizontal and trend following perspectives, we expected
the process was underway.

Friday we reached our first target on the downside with the all-out assault on 440,
while our secondary target of 400-420 remains a possibility.

After a futile attempt to bounce back Thursday, the market took the weak bounce as a
sign to continue lower, and fast. The OEX dropped like a stone Friday in what proved
to be a low level ET sell signal with penetration of the prior swing low of 440.

As a result, we remain bearish the OEX based on this performance for a move to
400-420, while having a stop to come above the end-all be-all of horizontal price
support/resistance in the 455-460-level.

From here we expect any follow through to the downside early this week to test
425-430 to lead to a bounce, possibly back to 440-445 before the market heads south
once more to reach down and test 400-420.

Having said that, the economic docket is stacked this week with no less than eleven
key reports, while we also have the UN deadline coming Monday.

As a result, anything can happen, and likely will.

Nevertheless, we must continue to follow our discipline and the break back below key
support from a horizontal and trend following perspective suggests the downside bias
remains favorable, while the upside potential may only be realized upon reclamation
of 455-460, and then ultimately 480.

In looking at the weekly chart of the OEX, we notice the market followed through
markedly on the lower high bearish reversal of the week prior. The market now stands
considerably lower than its 10weekEMA (green) and thus suggests there?s no
bullishness to be found until a test down to 400-420.

Here are the week's closing numbers:

NASDAQ 1342.15 -34.04 -2.47%
SP100 436.14 -21.22 -4.64%
SP500 861.40 -40.40 -4.48%
DOW 8131.01 -455.70 -5.31%

For the year the Dow is in the minus column by (2.52%), while the Nasdaq Composite is
holding near the flat line up 0.50%. Meanwhile, the S&P 100 and S&P 500 have posted
losses of (1.94%) and (2.09%), respectively.