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[Camisa Roxa]

Industry: Property-Casualty Ins. Closing Price: $47.01 Avg. Vol.: 605k P/E: 15.46 Est. EPS 12/02: .80Company Profile: The Progressive Corporation provides automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services. The Company also insures financial institutions. Progressive operates in the United States and Canada.Trading Strategy: Climatic Low. PGR fell a distance from its 20-ma last week that suggests it's likely ready for a tradable rebound. On Thursday, PGR's daily range expanded considerably wider than the prior trading sessions and volume became climatic. This also suggests a short-term reversal is close. Friday was the day that now tells us the turn is at hand as PGR closed above its opening price for the first time in eight trading sessions and held above the prior day's low.Tip: Daily price range expansion after a several bar decline suggest a reversal is most likely close at hand. When its pattern is accompanied by expanding volume it increases that likelihood. This combination of price and volume action suggests a capitulation to the selling pressure and a tradable reversal after a COG.The Play: We will look to buy PGR once it trades above 47.17. Once entered, our stop will be placed 46.30 below the low made on Friday. Med. Risk.Objective: We will look for a move of 1.50- 2.00 There is a small base of resistance in the 48.50 area that can been seen on the intra-day chart. A reaction there is likely. The significant resistance area is higher in the 49.50 area. Take it a step at a time and monitor along the way. Entering is the easy part.SPW Update: PALM fell hard on Friday with the overall market but our stop was not hit at 17.08. A negative open may cause that to happen. Those willing may choose to only exit half the position if the stop price is violated. PALM is nearing an area of support and may bounce from here. The weekly chart is still attractive.