Guy Villax culpa baixo preço dos genéricos por ruturas de "stock" nas farmácias

[Camisa Roxa]

THURSDAY a.m.
January 16, 2003



One More Up?
by David Nichols

I've been talking lately about the markets setting up for a decline, due to poor sentiment and price action during the later stages of this uptrend off the October bottom. Yesterday was a weak day, so the question before us is whether this was the start of the big decline.

I don't think so. Not quite yet.

There is still some unfinished business on the upside. Big daily trends like the one we've seen since October 10th tend to finish with a flourish, blowing out short positions in a flurry of stop-running, at the same time as they suck in every last bullish dollar on the sidelines. They tend to look just look December 2nd, in fact -- which was a big "shooting star" candlestick.



There's more to it than this. As Tom McClellan is pointing out, there has still not been a breakdown in breadth on his McClellan Oscillator. When a "complex structure" is built on one side on the zero line on his famous oscillator, it means that side of the market is still in charge of the trend. In this case, the complexity can all be found on the bullish side, and the oscillator still has not even yet crossed zero into negative territory. Interestingly, it was negative during the trading day yesterday, before closing at +16.

Also, it looks to me that the output pattern to the upside just isn't complete yet. One more up move would do it. Even if you're bearish, it's actually in your best interest to see another push higher. Even more money needs to be accumulated on the bullish side before the odds really get juicy on a downside trade. A big downtrend can certainly be launched from these sentiment levels, but it's not as clean as one where every last dollar has been sucked in.

But if the momentum of sentiment really starts to get bearish from here, we'll go with it. The markets certainly aren't always going to accommodate my wish for "cleanliness". Yet, in this current range-bound market, we'll want to see real evidence that a fear virus is fully taking hold of investors. It could come quickly from here, if that's how it's going to go.

In the meantime, one of the few stocks that was green yesterday in a sea of red was Tenet Healthcare (THC), a company we've mentioned in the Morning Briefing as a great "controversy play" to the upside. As you may recall, Tenet sold off suddenly and massively in October on questions about their medicare "outlier payments," and also an investigation into surgical practices at one of their hospitals.

Institutional investors bailed in droves, as their risk-management parameters kicked off millions of simultaneous sell orders. This sent THC's stock swooning, incredibly, all the way from $50 down below $15.



After their recent earnings report, some of the controversy is starting to lift, and right on cue money is starting to pour back in. The value crowd is definitely onto this stock as an incredible bargain, provided no other controversies flare up from here. We think if the shares hold above the original panic low at $14, then a major share-price recovery could be in store. There's clear upside all the way to $30 -- where the stock would still be a bargain fundamentally -- and right now the stock sits at $18.84.