CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

MarcoAntonio Escreveu:Curare, a pergunta era para mim ou para o Vidente?

A pergunta era para o Vidente. Em relação à história do ângulos, o Gann tem uma data de livros escritos a contraporem essa teoria, mas eu sou sem dúvida o tipo errado para entrar nessa discussão... Há partida estaria de acordo contigo, mas como ainda li muito pouca coisa sobre Gann e a chamada "Geometria dos Mercados", prefiro ficar calado...

só que aproveitei esta sequência de posts, com um tema interessante, para chamar a atenção dos mais novos e menos bem informados acerca de algumas das "aves" que pairam à volta dos mercados e das ferramentas que utilizam.
Eu bem sei , que tu sabes que existem limites....

..."quando a esmola é grande, o pobre desconfia", não é? Se o gajo tem assim tanta sabedoria iria fazer newsletters de borla??

PS: peço desculpa por estar pouco participativo. É que estou a tentar perceber se sou eu que estou errado ou se vem realmente aí o Bull...!!

Um abraço ao forum,

Antunes

Curare, a pergunta era para mim ou para o Vidente?

Mas há limites ou não?

Eu só leio o David Nichols porque recebo a newsletter do homem à borla, quando aquilo acabar nem vai dar par ter saudades...

Sim, parece-me que é a linha central da Pitchfork embora o texto também dê a entender tratar-se de uma Speed Resistance Line (no entanto não vejo por onde poderia ele ter traçado uma linha de 1/2 porque não vejo linha nenhuma com o dobro do avanço q seja relevante, pelo menos a olho). Provavelmente é a da Pitchfork...

Em qualquer dos casos, são para mim critérios muito frágeis... Mas AT há para todos os gostos...

Quanto ao ângulo de 45º não creio, embora tb já tenha visto referências a valores de ângulos, é algo que não tem qq fundamento. Num dos eixos temos tempo e no outro temos cotações. Pelo que falar de ângulos não faz qq sentido (basta redimensionar o gráfico a nosso bel-prazer e os ângulos são todos alterados).

Afinal a Análise Técnica é alguma ciência exacta???
Meu caro, pelos anos que já leva disto, já devia ter percebido que na AT cada um compoe o ramalhete como bem quer, de forma a conseguir justificar aquilo que quer, ou seja , através da AT qualquer um pode sustentar a maior aberração que disser, basta traçar as rectas e curvas que lhe der na real gana......isto tudo para concluir que cada um é que deve fazer a sua análise do Mercado, pois essa é que conta.....gúrús só existem em sociedades mentecaptas e desprovidas de pensamento.
Sempre ao serviço dos investidores, menos bem informados.

entalou-me, mas de qualquer maneira o homem não fala em técnica nenhuma, fala só na linha que passa pelo meio (????) do swing de alta de Outubro. Qual meio???

Em relação ao ângulo, não faço a menor ideia...

Abraço.

E qual é a referência para o ângulo?... O ângulo depende da escala. Se o pressuposto for esse então o ângulo que ele considera é completamente arbitrário.

Olá

Curare,

Eu acho que é a central linha da Pitchfork.

Vê 2 exemplos no gráfico da Portugal Telecom (um com linhas vermelhas e outro com as linhas verdes).

Um abraço

Mas a olho diria que ela faz um ângulo de 45º em relação ao mínimo de Outubro, e há algumas teorias que atribuem grande importância a essas "LTs" como zonas de resistência/suporte.

De qualquer maneira, parece-me que ele está a inventar, e não está a recorrer a teoria nenhuma...

É o que o ajuda a prevêr o sentido do mercado 100% das vezes...

Abraço

Tired
by David Nichols

While it's true I've been leaning bullish since the October bottom, and I've thought the market had a great window of opportunity to really power higher, I'll admit the uptrend off the October bottom has been disappointing, at least so far.

There's been no real "oomph" behind it. It's been more sideways than up. Occassionally there are spectacular days, with big surges of up volume and very strong breadth. But they're not going anywhere, and people are quick to believe in them as bullish signals.

This is not a recipe for a successful bull phase in the markets. Indeed, when we saw these big daily white candles all throughout the bear market -- and they never ended up really going anywhere -- then these surges proved to be isolated incidents of too many traders being caught the wrong way, temporarily.

Unfortunately we still look to be caught up in the bear market pattern, where it takes less and less upward price movement to make the crowd believe that good things are right around the corner. I thought with the hefty geo-political baggage being lugged around there was a great chance that the VIX could stay high -- meaning people were staying fearful of big declines -- and the market could move up against this opinion. That's the kind of observable behavior pattern that can mark a true, long-lasting bull advance.

The VIX has now worked itself down from those highs over 50 back in early October, and is butting up against a barrier at about the 27 level. All last week, the VIX made forays to go under the level it reached at the early December top on the OEX, yet it was rebuffed each and every time.

The market's look tired here. There could certainly be fresh surges of energy coming in, and in the short-term we could still have some unfinished business on the upside. Although I should mention that on Friday of last week we did get some short-term sell signals, and if they play out fully these can trigger a full-fledged daily sell signal. (These are on our options trading models).

The best case scenario for the markets is to quickly rebuff these short-term sell signals, and dash up to touch the underside of the trend line running up the middle of the advance off the October low.

So it's been an enervating battle right here, yet the market may buy itself some more time by staving off that sell signal. But down the road it's coming. If things don't change on the world stage, then it's not a question of if, but when, the markets are going to turn around and blow back the building tide of bullishness.

Now, this certainly doesn't have to happen right away. I'm talking very broad strokes this morning, the kind of market trend that take weeks and months to unfold. What I'm really laboring to say is that a very promising set-up in early October has failed to live up to its potential.

A move up to touch the underside of the trend line would still keep equities under important overhead resistance levels. It's likely our sentiment tank will be drained down quite a bit by that point. As I've mentioned recently, in this scenario the next down move has the potential to be a whopper, if events just keep unfolding in the same way they are now.

But there is a bullish alternative scenario. It's a longshot, but a possibility. A quick resolution in Iraq and the Middle East could launch a tremendous wave of liquidity into the stock market. I'm talking HUGE. This could start a self-reinforcing positive feedback cycle that could carry the markets straight through resistance levels, and into a real bull phase. Bear market sentiment patterns wouldn't matter in the face of such a tidal surge of liquidity. And there's definitely enough money out there to do it.

I'll go over this idea in more detail tomorrow. It's a big "if", this Iraqi situation, and our puzzlement over the potential outcome is exactly the same thing that tens of millions of other market participants are experiencing. Nobody knows. And basically, that has been -- and will continue to be -- the dominant market theme.

Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis

SENTIMENT TANK: The Tank remained essentially flat at 39% full of negative sentiment fuel on Friday.

SHORT-TERM GAUGE: The hourly momentum gauge had just barely tried to turn into an advance phase on Thursday, but that failed to materialize. The gauge went flat Friday morning and stayed there throughout Friday's session.

MID-TERM GAUGE: Mid-term momentum on the daily chart remained in its advance phase, rising from 57 to 61% in the uptrend. However our Confidence Diffusion Index backed off from 4 down to 2. The VIX (one of the components from which the tank reading is derived) has put in 5 straight candles with long lower shadows. It doesn't want to drop below the 26-27 area, it seems. Not with geopolitical uncertainties, Earnings Binge Week upcoming (79 companies report earnings this week), and Options Expiration this coming Friday.

While the mid-term gauge is still advancing, some of our shorter-term oscillators on the daily sentiment chart are turning up (bearish), suggesting that at least a short-term pullback would be constructive at this point before the market makes an assault on key overhead resistance in the SPX 950 area.

LONG-TERM: The weekly momentum ticked up from 80 to 81 on Friday, and up from 77 reading the prior Friday (when it was still showing a neutral/turning up reading). Our CDI backed off from Thursday's reading of 4 to 3, as the same hesitancy for the VIX to penetrate 26-27 showed up on the weekly candles as a doji, which indicates uncertainty.

IN SUM: There may be enough fuel to get the SPX up to resistance in the 950 area (945-965). But a trip up to that level would very likely drain the tank down close to empty, projecting an important market top. If the SPX were to rise to resistance and maintain a healthy level of negative sentiment then we could see an extension of the rally to 1000 or 1050, but that's unlikely.

Só pode ser um engano... porque se é uma linha diferente das habituais acredito que a explicasse. Mas sei lá... eu não vejo nenhum sentido na linha.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

O nosso amigo David Nichols está a ficar maluquinho? Vejam só a LT que ele definiu para limitar uma potencial subida do mercado, acompanhado da seguinte frase:

"The best case scenario for the markets is to quickly rebuff these short-term sell signals, and dash up to touch the underside of the trend line running up the middle of the advance off the October low." (Retirado do Morning Briefing de hoje)

Por favor, digam-me se há uma teoria qualquer que suporte isto, ou se o Sr. Nichols agora inventou a "LT que passa por um só ponto"...