Guy Villax culpa baixo preço dos genéricos por ruturas de "stock" nas farmácias

[Matraquilho]

by Chris Curran

January 13, 2003



Last week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 61 points to close at 1,448, the Dow rallied 183 points to finish at 8785, and the S&P 500 advanced 21 points to end at 930. Volume picked up quite a bit from previous weeks, which was healthy given the nice gains. In the first 7 days of 2003, the markets have shown solid overall breadth, which many technicians have been suggesting confirms the move. Much of the newfound optimism may stem from the proposed stimulus package, which eliminates the double taxation of dividends. I found it especially interesting on Friday when the dismal Unemployment report was deemed good news, since it could help in getting the package passed. This sort of "bad news is good news" game was played in late 2000 and most of 2001, and we all know what the end result was. If you recall, not only did we have a stimulus package just after President Bush entered office, but we have also had 12 interest rate cuts. The only things that have happened following these actions have been lending booms in the auto and housing sectors and consumers going further into debt. This past week's Consumer Credit report was applauded because on the surface, it appeared that credit card debt was declining. However, the likely cause for the decline was consumers refinancing their homes or opening home equity loans to pay off the credit cards. So, the debt was probably transferred, rather than eliminated. With that said, it's pretty obvious that the economy and equity markets are suffering from issues that lower interest rates and fiscal stimulus may not be able to solve. These measures could create pockets of strength in the economy as we have seen, but they are probably not the answer to the current problems.

The main thing that has plagued stocks, and probably will continue to do so, is overvaluation. Of course there will be periods of time when valuations do not matter, like the late 90's, but Wall Street is under the gun and is finally starting to realize that price does matter. Historically, bear markets cause valuations to at least come down to long-term averages, and in most cases, bear markets have caused undervaluation. This time, however, after a bear market that has lasted almost 3 years, valuations are still not even close to their historical norms. I feel the reason for this is that things were shot so far on the upside in the late 1990's, that it could take a very long time to work through the excesses. One has to look no further than Japan to see that working off the excesses is not always done in a brief period of time. The Nikkei has been in a secular bear market for over 13 years and currently sits 79% from its summit. I'm not saying that the same thing is about to occur in the US, because it probably won't, but wanted to point out how long it often takes to get from overvaluation to fair value, or even undervaluation. Remember, by the time a secular bear market ends, consumers have often given up on equities as investments, which causes severe undervaluation. But, to coin the favorite phrase of the bull market cheerleaders, maybe "this time will be different."

Looking ahead this week, earnings season gets into full swing with reports from AAPL, EBAY, IBM, INTC, MSFT, SUNW, and YHOO. Also, many of the banks report next week, so we should continue to see some nice daily ranges on the S&P 500. The economic calendar is also full with the Retail Sales, CPI, and PPI reports.

Technically speaking, the NASDAQ Composite closed at the high of the week, holding above its 200-day SMA, and is testing the 62% Fib retracement of December's decline. The March S&P 500 also closed at the high of the week and has formed a small ascending triangle. On an intraday basis, the contract is forming a bearish butterfly with a target reversal point in the 935-36 area, which would also coincide with the 78.6% Fib retracement of the December decline. The VIX is testing support from its November low and is converging into a falling wedge (see chart).









esta frase dele está gira está....


But, to coin the favorite phrase of the bull market cheerleaders, maybe "this time will be different."

tens umas piadas muita giras...tems... tems..