Cycle Projection Center
Enviado: 10/1/2003 11:03For the U.S. stock market, the most dominant cycles coming in are:
38-day cycle (market days): Next due January 24, 2003, +/- 2 days. This cycle lost its dominance long ago, but we still track it and recently it has manifest itself in market lows. Recent bottoms were November 29, October 7, and August 13, 2002, and before that: November 12, 2001, and January 8, March 4, April 25, and June 19, 2002. Other important bottoms have been September 19, 2001, then before that on December 20, 2000, February 14, 2001, and April 10.
19-week cycle: Bottomed precisely on schedule September 30, 2002, and is next due the week of February 10, 2003. Recent cycle bottoms were within the 1-week margin for error of the due dates of the week of May 20, 2002, April 9, 2001, and early December, 2000.
9-month cycle: bottomed on schedule during December 2000 and September 2001. The market has been very weak and has passed the June 21, 2002 cycle due date. It has been our experience over the years that, when this "right-hand translation" occurs, the market is considered weak and the cycle due date should not be changed. It is next due March 2003.
39-month cycle: Bottomed on October 18, 2000, exactly on schedule. It is due next January 2004.
4-year cycle: last bottomed precisely on schedule on October 10, 2002 -- exactly 4 years from the last revolution of the cycle on October 8, 1998. It is next due to bottom in October 2006.
*All cycles are +/- 2 trading days with the exception of the 39-month and 4-year cycles, which should be given a margin of error of +/- 2 weeks, and the 19-week cycle, +/- 1 week.
The above by no means represent all cycles in force. They are the dominant ones, though.
Para quem acredita nestes ciclos e se ainda estivermos num Bear Market vamos ter novos mínimos em Março.
Bom dia,
38-day cycle (market days): Next due January 24, 2003, +/- 2 days. This cycle lost its dominance long ago, but we still track it and recently it has manifest itself in market lows. Recent bottoms were November 29, October 7, and August 13, 2002, and before that: November 12, 2001, and January 8, March 4, April 25, and June 19, 2002. Other important bottoms have been September 19, 2001, then before that on December 20, 2000, February 14, 2001, and April 10.
19-week cycle: Bottomed precisely on schedule September 30, 2002, and is next due the week of February 10, 2003. Recent cycle bottoms were within the 1-week margin for error of the due dates of the week of May 20, 2002, April 9, 2001, and early December, 2000.
9-month cycle: bottomed on schedule during December 2000 and September 2001. The market has been very weak and has passed the June 21, 2002 cycle due date. It has been our experience over the years that, when this "right-hand translation" occurs, the market is considered weak and the cycle due date should not be changed. It is next due March 2003.
39-month cycle: Bottomed on October 18, 2000, exactly on schedule. It is due next January 2004.
4-year cycle: last bottomed precisely on schedule on October 10, 2002 -- exactly 4 years from the last revolution of the cycle on October 8, 1998. It is next due to bottom in October 2006.
*All cycles are +/- 2 trading days with the exception of the 39-month and 4-year cycles, which should be given a margin of error of +/- 2 weeks, and the 19-week cycle, +/- 1 week.
The above by no means represent all cycles in force. They are the dominant ones, though.
Para quem acredita nestes ciclos e se ainda estivermos num Bear Market vamos ter novos mínimos em Março.
Bom dia,