CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Ó caríssima Pata, é claro que não acredito que o Saddam se demita e passe a uma reforma dourada num qualquer paraíso fiscal, qual ditador de uma república das bananas.

Uma boa razão para ele não o fazer é que sabe muito bem que fosse para onde fosse e por mais bem guardado que estivesse os Israelis não iam descansar enquanto ele não levasse com umas balas (lembram-se dos misseis que ele mandou há 10 anos para cima de Israel? A vingança é um prato muito mais saboroso quando servido a frio.)

Mas já é bem mais provável (embora pouco) que os militares acabem por fazer um golpe que o deponha e liquide, estilo Ceausescu, porque caso contrário vão ser arrastados com ele. Pelo menos os Saudis e os Iranianos sabem bem que só têm a perder poder e influência na região se o Iraque se passar para o outro lado.

O Iraque está cheio de sorte. Tal como aconteceu com a Alemanha e o Japão, ainda se arriscam a daqui por 10 anos serem a maior potência económica da região.

Caro Ulisses:

Agora que regresso após o período de festas de fim de ano ( longe de computadores ), quero aproveitar para desejar as maiores felicidades ao amigo de sempre, esperando que 2003 seja o marco divisor para uma nova etapa de sucesso e prosperidade em tua vida!!!
J. Nunes

Quanto à demissão do sadam hussein, nem pensar, não acredito. Quem adora o poder de forma dictatorial nunca se demite. Agarra-se a ele a todo custo.

Aaaron Task Escreveu:--Saddam Hussein steps down in the face of massive US-led military force at his borders; North Korea's Kim Jong Il negotiates with the U.S./U.N. and stops producing nukes. We get through 2003 w/o a major battle in the Middle East or Asia,

Curioso, concordo totalmente com esta!

Já Sun Tzu dizia há 2500 anos -- "o verdadeiro sucesso não é ter 1000 vitórias em 1000 batalhas, o verdadeiro sucesso é ganhar a guerra sem sequer precisar de combater".

O melhor exemplo disso memso foi o desfecho da 3ª Guerra Mundial, também conhecida por Guerra Fria...

Aqui transcrevo o texto do Task em que ele relembra quais as surpresas que Wien, há um ano atrás, previu para 2002:

"-- No major terrorist event in the U.S. (Thank heavens, he was right on that.)

-- The U.S. economy slips back into recession (wrong, according to GDP) and the S&P 500 closes lower (right) prompting Alan Greenspan's resignation (wrong).

-- The 10-year yield dips below 4%. (right)

-- Japan's recession continues (right) and the Nikkei drops to 8000 (close, 8303, but no cigar). Koizumi resigns (nope).

-- Russia is the star of emerging markets (give that man a cigar!)

No military action vs. Iraq but growing tensions and oil rises above $30/bbl. (Bingo!) Devon, Apache and Transocean are big winners (right, save RIG).

People start traveling again providing a boon to AMR, Delta, Boeing, Starwood, and Hilton (save HLT, wrong, at least as far as the stocks)

LU, NT, JDSU do well as tech/telecom equipment orders improve. (WRONG! Even with big Q4 rallies, each fell over 70% in 2002.)

-- Pension fund solvency becomes a big issue. (correct-a-mundo)

-- Post-Enron populism sweeps the U.S. (right), leaving pro-business Republicans on the outs; Dems retake Congress, A.G. John Ashcroft resigns. (Wrong-O)

Juding by Wien's own guidlines -- each has a 50% chance and more than half take place -- he did pretty good in 2002 (save the LU/NT/JDSU call -- eek!) "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Aaaron Task deixou há pouco, no Realmoney as surpresas que antevê para 2003 o conhecido analista Bryon Wien's.

"--"The U.S. equity market defies the return-to-the-mean, modest-return pundits and surges more than 25% during the first half of the year. A Teflon-like dollar draws support from stronger-than-expected earnings growth and a recognition of America's economic, political, and military strength. Foreign capital inflows surge and individual investors start to buy again." (That's the one the chattering classes were chattering about today.)

-- U.S. economy grows 4% in 2003. Consumers hold up + capital spending rebounds. The Fed tightens by 100 bp as inflation revives. The yield on the 10-yr approaches 5.5%. U.S. stocks under "valuation pressure" in 2H but major average close positive for the year.

-- Japan gets serious about reform, Nikkei climbs to 11,000. Koizumi (wasn't he supposed to resign in 2002?)proposes free-trade agreement with China and Asia "becomes the new engine of global growth. (This would seem to undermine forecast no. 1, esp re. the dollar, but maybe I'm being prickly.)

-- Germany's Schroeder resigns as other members of the EMU threaten to pull out b/c Germany is dragging them down. European equities badly lag the U.S. and Japan.

-- Dividend tax reform compels CSCO, DELL, ORCL, MSFT to pay dividends.

-- The housing bubble gets BIGGER. LEN and CTX are big performers. Greenspan resigns "saying he isn't up to handling another bubble." (Give Wien credit for jocularity on this one.)

--Saddam Hussein steps down in the face of massive US-led military force at his borders; North Korea's Kim Jong Il negotiates with the U.S./U.N. and stops producing nukes. We get through 2003 w/o a major battle in the Middle East or Asia, although oil supplies remain tight and crude around $30 bbl, benefiting oil stocks SLB, HAL, BJS. (It's hard to imagine Wien in tie-dye but he's going with the "give peace a chance" crowd. Sure hope he's right on this.)

-- Biotech revives thanks to FDA approval of some new products. AMGN and GILD are favorites.

-- Brazil leads a surprising recovery in Latin America, which will be the most rewarding emerging market of 2003.

-- Hillary Clinton announces she's running for president in 2004. George W. looks forward to a Bush beating a Clinton. (more levity from Wien.) "

(in www.realmoney.com)