Wall Street fecha semana sem rumo. Grandes tecnológicas pressionam

[Surfer]

Well it's that time again... the new year...
2002 was a difficult year for most, hopefully not most of you. 2002 saw some of the biggest U.S. bankruptcies in our nation's history. 2002 witnessed how truly dirty corporate America's laundry is. 2002 observed first-hand how worthless most commentary and leadership from Wall Street truly is. 2002 is over.

As we begin the new year, as you know most stocks and indexes have already rallied coming into the new year...

1)the January effect will be muted in my opinion or will not happen at all as the new year is not a cause for celebration towards the accumulation of stocks.

2) the markets have formed a massive "head and shoulders" top this is as grizzly as it gets, from a bearish perspective. This is where we separate the plant feeders from the meat eaters... you may know grizzlies consume meat, this is a bear market of the grizzly variety. downside target for the spx 500. Downside target for the Dow Jones industrial average 4500

3) interest rates : if we assume that the stock market will unravel yet further and go to new lows... then bonds will continue to represent safe haven for many as capital flight migrates away from stocks into bonds this should cause lower interest rates.

4) real estate has topped property taxes are going substantially higher, and with few exceptions real estate should be sold, quickly.

5) retail businesses should not be established with the exception of pawn shops, consignment shops, collection style boiler rooms, and bankruptcy law practices.

6) bankruptcies will continue, particularly in the first three to six months in the retail space. But there will be other surprises as well.

All in all, 2003 will look much like 2002 except 2003 will be more painful. The economic strains will begin to materialize in bad fundamentals for the primary economy. This will be the story repeated all year long.

We can expect that there will be countertrend rallies in the context of this decline in this bear market countertrend rallies and strength in my opinion should be sold.

In bull markets we were all told and taught to buy and hold, I believe this mantra needs to be reversed as short and hold, -in the context of this bear market. We intend to do so.


P.S. - Um bom ano para todos!!!....Até brevemente!