Mohan 05/11/04
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Mohan 05/11/04
Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Look for rallies today off the early trading to start to show weakness. Goal is 1171.00 to complete up pattern.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, November 5, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 19.80 Value Area
Range: 12.50 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,167.50-1,166.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,161.90
1,161.80
Close 1,160.50
1,149.30
1,147.75-1,148.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,143.20
Low 1,142.10
1,125.20 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 4, 2004:
1)S@1144.25/B@1144.75 -.50....
2)S@1143.25/B@1146.25 -3.00....
3)S@1148.50/B@1150.50 -2.00......
4)S@1149.50/B@1151.50 -2.00
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
On Thursday the market turned the lower, early prices into a strong later rally with the High 5 starting out weak but later gathering momentum.
Our Headline Call for early support and continued bullishness was correct but incorrect on the later sell offs from the rally highs. Here are my Wrap Up comments on what we did today in the Live Update service.
"Today the markets launched a move almost strait up after bottom fishing under 1144.00. The High 5 were bearish in the morning and never really showed any real strength until later in the session.
The clue was the strong Advancing issues over declining issues. The markets were a difficult read early and we spent some points trying to hit the short side under 1150.00 (as shown above) and ended up hitting our daily loss limit.
There was some resistance initially at 1159 after the market ran up there but the pullbacks were all contained at 1156.50 and they moved higher hitting 1162.00 for a stellar showing. I can see what I missed in the chart formations and should have it corrected for the future."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Yesterday started to finish off an important upside pattern. The ultimate goal up on this move is 1171 and we may hit that today.
We will be looking for rallies today to fade out. We were premature in looking for that yesterday but today it's a more solid bet especially if we hit 1171.00
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: I want to especially focus on the BreakOut Hour One highs today as a key area to watch for a short trade. Especially if that ends up being near 1171.00 then it should pullback.
We may see prices stall just short of that but with the strong bullish momentum yesterday it will take some time to unwind today...so expect this. Should be worth the wait.
I still like buying at the Hour One low if that is hit first. This could happen today as we did NOT hit the Hour One low yesterday but missed it by a point or so. Look to Buy the Hour One low area IF the High 5 are not Mega Bearish. I am expecting a sort of neutral day today with a pullback off the highs giving us ONE MORE MILD DAY UP. This could end up being a mild day lower but most likely slightly up after the rallying lately.
Value Area: 1,149.30 - 1,161.80
Large Value area range today. Support should be at 1161 today if we are going to head higher towards the 1170 area before fading out.
If we pull back into the Value area and hold below 1161 then we could end up with our neutral day right off the open and into the day with a tight trading range.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,147.75 - 1,148.75
Not too likely we will get down here today. If we do early it would be associated with a larger, more bearish sell off and that would require taking a strong look at the news and High 5.
This price area would stand as support most likely today if we did get down there.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,167.50 - 1,166.50
Watch this area and near the +4.25 sell/reverse pivot at 1171.75 to hold back the Buying today. We would expect prices to fade out from this area if we rally up here and find support just below the top of the Value Area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,125.20
Quite a huge gap between the Pit Bull and current prices. Usually a 25 point gap will start to close shortly after that occurs. We are near a 35 point gap now so we should see things tighten up soon with lower prices and higher Pit Bull average.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to Sell the BreakOut highs today if we run up there first. Look for this to occur at or slightly above the Sell Pivot target in the 1169-71.00 area.
If we run lower first and the High 5 are not Mega Bearish along with some bad news then we can buy the Hour One low area and look for a mild bounce to give us One more mild day up to complete the pattern.
Otherwise if weakness sets in strong today look for BreakDown to sell off. Not expected however.
Good Luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, November 5, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 19.80 Value Area
Range: 12.50 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,167.50-1,166.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,161.90
1,161.80
Close 1,160.50
1,149.30
1,147.75-1,148.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,143.20
Low 1,142.10
1,125.20 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 4, 2004:
1)S@1144.25/B@1144.75 -.50....
2)S@1143.25/B@1146.25 -3.00....
3)S@1148.50/B@1150.50 -2.00......
4)S@1149.50/B@1151.50 -2.00
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
On Thursday the market turned the lower, early prices into a strong later rally with the High 5 starting out weak but later gathering momentum.
Our Headline Call for early support and continued bullishness was correct but incorrect on the later sell offs from the rally highs. Here are my Wrap Up comments on what we did today in the Live Update service.
"Today the markets launched a move almost strait up after bottom fishing under 1144.00. The High 5 were bearish in the morning and never really showed any real strength until later in the session.
The clue was the strong Advancing issues over declining issues. The markets were a difficult read early and we spent some points trying to hit the short side under 1150.00 (as shown above) and ended up hitting our daily loss limit.
There was some resistance initially at 1159 after the market ran up there but the pullbacks were all contained at 1156.50 and they moved higher hitting 1162.00 for a stellar showing. I can see what I missed in the chart formations and should have it corrected for the future."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Yesterday started to finish off an important upside pattern. The ultimate goal up on this move is 1171 and we may hit that today.
We will be looking for rallies today to fade out. We were premature in looking for that yesterday but today it's a more solid bet especially if we hit 1171.00
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: I want to especially focus on the BreakOut Hour One highs today as a key area to watch for a short trade. Especially if that ends up being near 1171.00 then it should pullback.
We may see prices stall just short of that but with the strong bullish momentum yesterday it will take some time to unwind today...so expect this. Should be worth the wait.
I still like buying at the Hour One low if that is hit first. This could happen today as we did NOT hit the Hour One low yesterday but missed it by a point or so. Look to Buy the Hour One low area IF the High 5 are not Mega Bearish. I am expecting a sort of neutral day today with a pullback off the highs giving us ONE MORE MILD DAY UP. This could end up being a mild day lower but most likely slightly up after the rallying lately.
Value Area: 1,149.30 - 1,161.80
Large Value area range today. Support should be at 1161 today if we are going to head higher towards the 1170 area before fading out.
If we pull back into the Value area and hold below 1161 then we could end up with our neutral day right off the open and into the day with a tight trading range.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,147.75 - 1,148.75
Not too likely we will get down here today. If we do early it would be associated with a larger, more bearish sell off and that would require taking a strong look at the news and High 5.
This price area would stand as support most likely today if we did get down there.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,167.50 - 1,166.50
Watch this area and near the +4.25 sell/reverse pivot at 1171.75 to hold back the Buying today. We would expect prices to fade out from this area if we rally up here and find support just below the top of the Value Area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,125.20
Quite a huge gap between the Pit Bull and current prices. Usually a 25 point gap will start to close shortly after that occurs. We are near a 35 point gap now so we should see things tighten up soon with lower prices and higher Pit Bull average.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to Sell the BreakOut highs today if we run up there first. Look for this to occur at or slightly above the Sell Pivot target in the 1169-71.00 area.
If we run lower first and the High 5 are not Mega Bearish along with some bad news then we can buy the Hour One low area and look for a mild bounce to give us One more mild day up to complete the pattern.
Otherwise if weakness sets in strong today look for BreakDown to sell off. Not expected however.
Good Luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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