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[alex01]

Market Force: Neutral. We are still bullish on early drops with support at the Hour One low but expecting rallies to start selling off.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, November 4, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.80 Value Area
Range: 4.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,150.00-1,149.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,149.00
1,147.10
Open 1,145.50
Close 1,145.10
1,142.50
1,139.25-1,140.25 Buy Pivot
Low 1,138.20
1,120.00 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 3, 2004:
No Trades on Wednesday.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's action.

We are expecting to trade today after watching the U.S. Presidential election for 2 days. Both days were very treacherous for trading as strong, out of nowhere, moves occured on BOTH sides. Standing aside was, in our view, the best approach.

On Wednesday the market moved higher again to 1149.00 but got kicked lower mid session all the way down to 1137.00. So the underlying bearish Market Force is preparing to set in on some of these rallies.

I cannnot but help to think that we are building some kind of base for a move to 1171 area as mentioned on yesterday's briefing but our exact Market Force calculations suggest that in next session or 2 we will start seeing a return to the sell mode we were previously in.

What appears to be happening however is even though we get a stronger sell off we are basing for an end of the year rally which could be very powerful. So overall I am expecting that drops DOWN TO THE PIT BULL will find support going into the remainder of this last quarter.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be watching for a double sided trade bias.

Primarily we are going to be focusing on rallies starting to weaken and get hit with selling later in the session. During the early session though there is still underlying bullish bias for lower, early drops at the Hour One low.

Key today will be to see the High 5 reaction. Yesterday we saw a very Mega Bullish High 5 but with weakness showing up later in the session. This means that underlying we are preparing for some pullback off of these highs perhaps challenging the Pit Bull soon.

With the way things are now I want to tend towards keeping a bullish bias into the end of this quarter. I think there could be a strong "Santa Claus Rally" as the markets missed that last year.

RECOMMENDED TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Strong Focus today will be on seeing how the market opens up and runs in the first half hour or so. If we get an early run to the upside hitting the Hour One high as the first H1 Pivot then we can most likely be ready to Sell that BreakOut attempt.

Depending on the High 5 we would want to see if we need to add a couple of points to the highs to let the rally attempt exhaust itself before selling.

If we get a down opening and early lower push BUT WITHOUT A MEGA BEARISH HIGH 5, then we should be able to buy the early drop below the Hour One low and see continued upside movement for 2 more days finishing off this week very positive.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,139.25 - 1,140.25
We need to continuously hold above 1140.00 to stay bullish. A slight dip below 1139.00 that picks up and gets back above 1140 should keep things bullish.

This is what occured on Wednesday so you can use today's chart shown above as a sample of what we would expect to keep occuring for next 2 days.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,150.00 - 1,149.00
Be ready to look to Sell Up here today. However, we are going to let the first hour play out today because of the elections being over now.

Would rather get a strong view of how the High 5 look after the first hour. We can catch up if we miss any early moves higher or lower. Better to be a bit extra cautious today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,120.00
Look for any pullbacks through the end of this year down to the Pit Bull to keep finding support and moving higher.

Pro Trader's Action
Today's trade favors early drops being bought. The Hour One pivot low was not hit until much later in the session on Wednesday.

Prices showed their resiliance and we expect that to continue for the next 2 days.

Remember though, if we get a higher move early on an up opening and an early rally attempt then we want to be sellers into that. We would look for an early rally to hold up beyond the first Hour and then get hit with selling later in the session.

Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan