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[alex01]

Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Watch for early rally attempt off of the lows but expect higher prices to keep finding resistance.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 17.60 Value Area
Range: 9.90 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,127.70 Pit Bull MA
High 1,127.20
Open 1,126.70
1,123.00-1,122.00 Sell Pivot
1,119.50
Close 1,112.20
Low 1,109.60
1,109.60
1,105.50-1,106.50 Buy Pivot



Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 13, 2004:
1) B@1125.25/S@1122.75 -2.50.....2)B@1120.50/S@1118.25 -2.25....3)S@1119.00/B@1113.00 +6.00....4)B@1111.75/S@1111.25 -.50

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's Action.

We came in on Wednesday looking for either a fairly weak day with the caution of a possible Bullish Breakout if the High 5 got really strong.

Well, our original idea panned out as prices sold off right from the early gap up opening. It was pretty much a strait down day with some stalling around the 1117-1119.00 Buy Pivot target area.

Here are my Wrap Up comments from the Live Service.

"The market gapped open +4.00 today and we were looking for lower prices. On the first lower drops the market stalled a bit and I wanted to try to scalp reflex rallies due to the fact that the Nasdaq was up over +10 points and the TRIN was near .80 which was not too bearish.

We bought on a dip to 1125.25, the market stalled but then pushed lower with no bounce in the market hitting our stop at 1122.75 for a -2.50 loss. I was a bit surprised by this and tried another buy at 1120.50 substantially lower with the TRIN and Nasdaq still in decent shape. Still no bounce as they rammed em down to 1118.25 hitting our stop at 1118.25 for a -2.25 loss.

Next, as they stalled at the Buy Pivot Target we watched a while and the High 5 turned increasingly negative. At that point we went short at 1119.00, prices continued to stall seeming to be artificially propped up at that point which I discussed in the market posts. After some time the market gave way and collapsed below 1116.00 which then opened the path for our goal lower of 1113.00. We covered up the short at the 1113.00 area for a +6.00 gain.

After a further washout to 1111.00 tapping the lows at that time of 1110.50 I had issued a Buy which was filled around 1111.75. Prices tried to press above 1113.00 but kept falling back. After some time to be cautious with the now highly bearish market before us I used a TIME STOP and got out at 1111.25 for a small .50 loss."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our first level goal lower of 1111.00 was met on Wednesday and prices stabalized there.

For today we are expecting prices to bounce off of this area on a flat to slightly lower opening. If we do get this then be ready to see the market bounce some but not get into a full rally just yet.

We will most likely be looking to trade earlier depending on the opening being flat to lower. If we get a gap up right off the opening then we may just let prices run a bit and see how they set up.

On any substantial rallies off the early lows we are going to be looking for resistance to come in at the numbers mentioned below.

TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If prices hold lower for the first hour on a small rally that pulls back then we will be focusing on buying the Hour One low.

If they hold lower for the general first 20 minutes or so of trading we could see a gradual climb towards the Hour One high where we would then need to see how the High 5 look. Expect to Sell any BreakOut attempts of the Hour One high.

Support comes in now at 1110.00, 1105.50 and then 1101.50

Resistance is at 1114.50, 1116.00, 1119.50 (top of VA) and then 1122/23.00 Sell Pivot target.

Value Area: 1,109.60 - 1,119.50
I am expecting that the Value Area will contain any rallies today with 1120 as the top. We have the Sell Pivot target just above that at 1122-23.00 so this is a strong resistance area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,105.50 - 1,106.50
Here is first level important support for an early drop in prices.

Look for a trade near this number with support at 1101.50 which would fufill the primary goal of the Sell Mode.

It appears we may have further lower testing to do if we cannot solidly hold this 1101.00 area possibly running as low as 1089.00 before finding some support after such a washout (not for today but over next week or so with continued weakness below 1101)

Sell Pivot Target: 1,123.00 - 1,122.00
It is expected that this area will hold back the buying today. Look for a shorting opportunity up here.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,127.70
we are now solidly in the Sell Rallies mode with the Pit Bull. Prices blew through this area to the downside solidly on Wednesday and now rallies up to the Pit Bull should be sold for lower testing.

Pro Trader's Action
Look for buying opportunities today as we start bottoming in this 1110.00 area for a rally attempt.

It is expected to hold under the Sell Pivot target today and falls in line with the new mode on the Pit Bull of selling rallies.

Watch the support at 1101.50 and 1105.50 with High 5 continuing mega bearish but expect this to hold today.

Good Luck with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan