CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

O Cramer tem andado um pouco atrasado em relação ao mercado, isto é um sinal bullish para amanhã.

"Don't Get Carried Away With the Love"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/13/2004 8:45 AM EDT

"You could get carried away with the love here. The love of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) for not doing so horribly that you have to sell it. The love of Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) for doing just enough to make it so you can hold on to it or buy more when the insider selling wave, post-quarter, hits. The love of stocks now that oil's had a day off from the 52-week-highs. The love of radio on news of a tiny uptick. The love of the financials for delivering classic b-t-e, as in better-than-expected results.

I don't know, where was that love last Thursday and Friday when you couldn't give stocks away?

It's not an easy moment. Last I looked, the evil henchmen -- high oil, Fed rate hikes, election uncertainty -- were more in control than ever, forcing us to wonder whether a combination of OK earnings and a Yankees victory are enough to inspire us for the full day. I mean, isn't Intel's "rally" just a case of hedge fund "friends" squeezing "friends"?

Oh, and while assessing the uncertain tableau, let's recall that the market rallied when Kerry won a debate and sold off when Bush took it to a draw, so who knows what will happen tonight?

This is one of those moments where I actually treasure my inability to sell when I want to. I just don't think that the trio of bogeymen is going to knock us down here, and don't you want to be in if we get a 15-minute decline in the price of crude?

But there's no envy in hedge-fund land. The folks who say they can't own Intel because it has a point of downside, even as it might have 5 points of upside, are the ones who will be making the marginal decisions today. For them, I am sure a combination of fading the opening, then getting 140% long, just to blow it all out in the close is in the game plan.

To me, the love's excessive. This is a game of "likes," in that I like it here OK because I know that, alas, this market can turn ugly on a dime as it did last week. You can't get carried away, or they will carry you away.

All the better to work on new names and sit tight, watching the action and waiting for better prices to buy. "

(in www.realmoney.com)