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[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish. Look to stay on the sell side today especially if we get a higher opening and early attempt to rally. CAUTION: although we expect lower prices today being in the current Prez election cycle watch for stalled prices at highs for possible BreakOut rally with Mega Bull High 5.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 8.80 Value Area
Range: 5.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,128.00 Pit Bull MA
1,126.25-1,125.25 Sell Pivot
High 1,124.80
Close 1,122.40
1,121.60
Open 1,118.50
1,117.25-1,118.25 Buy Pivot
1,116.20
Low 1,116.00



Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, October 12, 2004:
1)S@119.25/B@1118.00 +1.25.....

2)B@1118.00/S@1117.00 -1.00 (or if not stopped out S@1118.50 for +.50)

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Wednesday's action.

We are hopeful that we will get more volume and volatility today following yesterday's rather slow period.

The final Presidential debates occur tonite so we will continue to look for possible connections in the trading to that.

Today is expected to be a more bearish day so we are preparing accordingly.

Here are my Wrap Up comments for Tuesday's trade.

"The market gapped lower on the open today substantially nearly 8 points. It's been quite some time since seeing such an large gap opening lower.

However, that was our signal to look for a bottoming process for today.

I spent most of the day going over the new system we are using in conjunction with the Market Force Oscillator I developed. We now have completed the final touches and showed everyone how it works.

After the lower opening the Hour One low was 1116.00. After a slight bounce we were looking for prices to potentially move back and test the Hour One low.

We got short at 1119.25 on a MFO signal and prices immediately fell back. However, it was a slow day for most of the early session and prices stalled at 1117.50. After seeing the stall and further congestion on the MFO we covered the short at 1118.00 for a +1.25 profit.

Shortly after that we saw another signal to get long and entered at average price of 1118.00. Using our new methods we were able to calculate a stop at 1117.00.

Many of our traders will enter a hard stop placed in the markets while most, on my suggestion, will just keep their finger on the computer mouse and when we trade at or through the stop number will click and exit.

Well, today prices traded down to 1117.25 and for a mili-second tapped 1117.00 and bounced right off of it. I called my brokerage and checked time and sales and the conclusion was "some orders were filled and some weren't".

Either way officially we would be considered stopped out for a -1.00 loss. I got some emails stating that "Mohan, we are still long...what to do?" So I put another post up suggesting that if you were still long to just hold out.

Later as prices ran up and hit 1119.25 and then pulled back hitting a congested area of the MFO. I suggested liquidating any longs held and the fills were near 1118.50 for a +.50 gain.

It was now after 1:30 est and I decided we would stand aside, let the market push up a bit which was expected and we would take a look at settled prices for tommorrow where more volume is expected. Prices actually rallied nicely off of 1120 later in the session running up to 1125.00.

Normally from now on we will be holding out for most of the entire session looking for opportunities. We will still avoid trading on the Options Expirations (one coming up Friday) and FOMC meetings along with regularly scheduled Exchange holidays or ultra slow trading days."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is expected to be on the weak side and especially if we get a flat to higher opening with an early rally of some kind.

We saw Tuesday's trade push off the early lows as expected and make a completion move to test the days highs AFTER the close. Prices overnight on Globex have settled some reflecting this.

If we open flat to higher and press a bit higher off of the open this would expect to be a good opportunity to look for an early short sale.

TRADERS ON OUR LIVE UPDATE SERVICE BE READY TO TRADE EARLY.

RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: The Pit Bull 10 day Moving average is at 1128.00 with the Sell Pivot under that at 1126.25. Prices could not quite exceed this zone on late Tuesday so an attempt to get into this zone early today will probably sell off.

Watch 1130.50 to hold any buying back IF we are neutral on the High 5. If the High 5 get Mega Bullish then we have to honor that and consider that we could rally stronger but I am not expecting this.

IF PRICES HANG UP AT THE HIGHS AND THE HIGH 5 GET MEGA BULLISH WATCH FOR A BREAKOUT BUY...this is not expected but the "surprise element" is there in the market with all the emotion of the Prez election time...so be ready. If this occurs then we could see the market attempt to crank back up to those highs of last week at 1143.00 area. What would cause this? Maybe Oil prices dropping off "coincidentally" just in the nick of time.

If we get another lower gap opening and run lower (not expected) then we would look for the possibility of a Mega Bearish High 5 similar to what we saw last Thursday. We would look to sell and stay short on such a setup.

Oveall, I think that the market will remain fairly tame today as we have the Prez debates and efforts will be made to keep things stable it is expected.

Resistance is as noted, 1126-27, Pit Bull at 1128.00 and 1130.50. Above that resistance is 1131.50 and 1133.50.

Support comes in at 1121.50 (top of the VA) 1118.00 and yesterday's 1116.00 but taking that out brings 1112.00 into play. The ultimate goal of this current Sell Mode we are in is 1101.00 test of the previous low of last month UNLESS we head back into an aberration on the Sell Mode with prices holding above 1126.00

Value Area: 1,116.20 - 1,121.60
The top of the Value area now becomes first level support. If we open higher and sell off from the 1126.00 area then this will find support at 1121.50. If the High 5 get mega bearish for any reason then we are going to slide lower and possibly test 1118.00 again and even the VA low.

If that occurs it will be preparing us for 1111-12.00 on the next level lower.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,117.25 - 1,118.25
We've got this Buy Pivot target right at the support under 1121.50 which is currently important support.

If prices do go to this level AND STALL with a bearish High 5 then we could start pressing towards 1116 and 1113.00 which is the -4.25 stop/pivot level.

That would bring us very close to 1111.00 stronger support.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,126.25 - 1,125.25
Watch this area but mostly Pit Bull at 1128.00 and then just above there at 1130.50.

As mentioned if prices "hang up" near these highs then we are going to make a run higher on some bullish preception news.

Otherwise our Market Force indicators are looking for lower prices sans the Mega Bullish High 5 and any construed Mega Bullish news such as drastic Oil price drops.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,128.00
Now an important number which we have discussed above. Prices hanging up here and stalling suggests a possible new leg up to test last weeks 1143.00 on some precieved great news.

Pro Trader's Action
Overall we are going to be looking for some early sellng off of a flat to higher opening and early push up in prices.

If this occurs and we do NOT get a sell off but instead the High 5 turn Mega Bullish then watch for prices to hang up at 1128.00 area. Once they run through 1131.00 then we are back in Aberration on the Sell Mode and should see a decent run back up to test 1143 again pretty soon.

Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan