Mohan, 05/10/04
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Mohan, 05/10/04
Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Looking for market to move lower today but find support on the Hour One lows unless the High 5 becomes Mega Bearish.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, October 5, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 6.00 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,141.00
1,140.10
1,139.25-1,138.25 Sell Pivot
Open 1,138.00
1,137.10
Close 1,135.50
Low 1,135.00
1,133.25-1,134.25 Buy Pivot
1,117.30 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, October 4, 2004:
1)B@1139.50/S@1138.50 -1.00......
2)B@1137.75/S@1136.00 -1.75 (2nd Level Buys at 1136.50-37.00 for aver.-.75)
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's action.
The market was a more challenging read on Monday as we had a fairly bullish High 5 but VIX/VXO was showing weakness according to the way we read it.
Also, we were looking for prices to hang up more near the highs which would have triggered a short sale but instead we got an earlier sell off making us want to consider the long side.
Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service for your review.
"On the Morning Call today we were looking for early higher prices to be a shorting opportunity if we saw prices hang up at the highs until mid afternoon session.
With the prices selling off earlier this normally is a sign that they are going to press higher into the later session. With that in mind we got long at 1139.50 on a pullback off the highs and used a very tight "do or die" stop on that position.
Prices tried to push higher but came down and hit out stop taking us out with a small -1.00 loss. Later in the session I wanted to continue to look to be long at lower levels.
I got a signal on the MFO at 1137.25 and filled near 1137.75 in a jumpy market. All day today the market more or less traded in a small 2.50 range from about 1137-1139.50. We held long through several booby trap spike lower moves on low volume and saw prices continue to rise. The underlying was telling me there was a good chance of moving higher into the close.
After one dip to 1136.00 area we held long by a thread and prices started to move higher. After stretching back up towards 1138.50 we got hit with the booby trap spike lower on low volume moves and decided to just get out as we had planned if prices hit 1136.25. Loss of -1.50/.75 on that trade.
Days in the sequencing pattern like today are more difficult to trade then most. By taking a shot on the setups that occur and using our very tight stops we can position for profits but if stopped out it is not too difficult for us."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is expected to be another challenging day as far as determining bias. What we want to do is expect prices to continue lower IF we get a flat to higher opening and an early push up like Monday.
If we go lower right off the open then we can look for support near the 1132.00 area first and below that we would have a tight watch on 1130.00 (stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot target).
The market is at a point where we could end up resuming the Sell Mode again but with the seasonal bullishness of the Election year there also is a chance of an upward explosion. With the Presidential race clearly undecided there are many WILD CARD factors that can be considered on the bearish side too.
For our Day Trading purposes we need to face that we are in a very tight range environment that all of a sudden breaks out and has these strong up or down days. They always appear "obvious" after they are over but not always in the live action with many mixed signals crossing.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS FOR TODAY: We saw the Hour One low get hit on Monday first later in the session. There is a good chance that if we hit that again today with a Mega Bearish High 5 prices could sell off below that by down to -6.00 lower below the B/D. If not totally Mega Bearish High 5 then look for support near 1130-33.00. Compare these numbers with the Hour One low and see how they correlate.
Opening flat to higher and hitting the BreakOut first today is expected to continue to sell off if the High 5 are mildly bullish at the time of B/O or neutral. We have to be prepared again today however to scalp small amounts of points from these tight ranges unless it appears things are going to open up.
Resistance today is up at 1139.25 where we saw prices keep getting hit with selling on Monday. Above that is 1141.50 and then 1143.50. Next level up from there is 1146.75.
Support comes in at 1132-33.00 zone and then 1130.00. Below that is strong support at 1128.50 and then 1126.75. Retracing this lower support can still keep the bullish Aberration intact on the Sell Mode but this is the point where the original Sell Mode began which took us down to 1101.25 on the lows. So on any strong pullback today or tommorrow 1126.50 is a powerful "Line in the Sand" as far as our analysis goes.
Value Area: 1,137.10 - 1,140.10
Holding below 1137.00 keeps the market bearish with a sell bias. An early move lower towards support at 1130-33 could bounce up and attempt to get back in the VA but it appears that could be a test area now for support/resistance.
Live Traders on our update service may recall how on Monday that was a pivotal price that just kind of got stuck right there. Hence today's important focus on that number being the bottom of the VA.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,133.25 - 1,134.25
We would want to watch for a reaction to this pivot on a lower, early move but not necessarily trade it forthright.
I will be looking for clear signals on the MFO (Market Force Oscillator) in this 1130-33.00 price zone for a long side trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,139.25 - 1,138.25
This was big resistance on Monday. If prices move lower first and find support near the above mentioned zone of 1130-33.00 then we may see a trip up to test this area again. This would mean a slight dip into the Value Area.
If prices rise into the VA, hit these numbers and sell off below 1137.00 then that is a bearish sign.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,117.30
We are still buying dips above this number. After prices blew through the Pit Bull back to the upside it has been left in the dust. On Monday the spread between prices and the Pit Bull was about 25 points and often this can be a sign to look for a tightening of that spread. Not necessarily a return to the Pit Bull but just a closer relationship in the spread.
Pro Trader's Action
Like Monday we may be in for another tight range day today.
Watch for a tight range day if the High 5 are mixed in bias. If we get a one sided Mega Bearish High 5 then we could see range expansion to the downside.
Otherwise expect support to come in on the lows and an attempt to get back above 1137.00
Overall bias is expected to continue higher with the Sell Mode in aberration but strong signals came in on today's numbers suggesting that the aberration on the Sell Mode could be over very quickly here and we could start heading back lower again. 1126.50 is the key number to determine this...so watch this carefully.
Otherwise, let's see how the opening will go today and how to rate the bias.
Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, October 5, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 6.00 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,141.00
1,140.10
1,139.25-1,138.25 Sell Pivot
Open 1,138.00
1,137.10
Close 1,135.50
Low 1,135.00
1,133.25-1,134.25 Buy Pivot
1,117.30 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, October 4, 2004:
1)B@1139.50/S@1138.50 -1.00......
2)B@1137.75/S@1136.00 -1.75 (2nd Level Buys at 1136.50-37.00 for aver.-.75)
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's action.
The market was a more challenging read on Monday as we had a fairly bullish High 5 but VIX/VXO was showing weakness according to the way we read it.
Also, we were looking for prices to hang up more near the highs which would have triggered a short sale but instead we got an earlier sell off making us want to consider the long side.
Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service for your review.
"On the Morning Call today we were looking for early higher prices to be a shorting opportunity if we saw prices hang up at the highs until mid afternoon session.
With the prices selling off earlier this normally is a sign that they are going to press higher into the later session. With that in mind we got long at 1139.50 on a pullback off the highs and used a very tight "do or die" stop on that position.
Prices tried to push higher but came down and hit out stop taking us out with a small -1.00 loss. Later in the session I wanted to continue to look to be long at lower levels.
I got a signal on the MFO at 1137.25 and filled near 1137.75 in a jumpy market. All day today the market more or less traded in a small 2.50 range from about 1137-1139.50. We held long through several booby trap spike lower moves on low volume and saw prices continue to rise. The underlying was telling me there was a good chance of moving higher into the close.
After one dip to 1136.00 area we held long by a thread and prices started to move higher. After stretching back up towards 1138.50 we got hit with the booby trap spike lower on low volume moves and decided to just get out as we had planned if prices hit 1136.25. Loss of -1.50/.75 on that trade.
Days in the sequencing pattern like today are more difficult to trade then most. By taking a shot on the setups that occur and using our very tight stops we can position for profits but if stopped out it is not too difficult for us."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is expected to be another challenging day as far as determining bias. What we want to do is expect prices to continue lower IF we get a flat to higher opening and an early push up like Monday.
If we go lower right off the open then we can look for support near the 1132.00 area first and below that we would have a tight watch on 1130.00 (stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot target).
The market is at a point where we could end up resuming the Sell Mode again but with the seasonal bullishness of the Election year there also is a chance of an upward explosion. With the Presidential race clearly undecided there are many WILD CARD factors that can be considered on the bearish side too.
For our Day Trading purposes we need to face that we are in a very tight range environment that all of a sudden breaks out and has these strong up or down days. They always appear "obvious" after they are over but not always in the live action with many mixed signals crossing.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS FOR TODAY: We saw the Hour One low get hit on Monday first later in the session. There is a good chance that if we hit that again today with a Mega Bearish High 5 prices could sell off below that by down to -6.00 lower below the B/D. If not totally Mega Bearish High 5 then look for support near 1130-33.00. Compare these numbers with the Hour One low and see how they correlate.
Opening flat to higher and hitting the BreakOut first today is expected to continue to sell off if the High 5 are mildly bullish at the time of B/O or neutral. We have to be prepared again today however to scalp small amounts of points from these tight ranges unless it appears things are going to open up.
Resistance today is up at 1139.25 where we saw prices keep getting hit with selling on Monday. Above that is 1141.50 and then 1143.50. Next level up from there is 1146.75.
Support comes in at 1132-33.00 zone and then 1130.00. Below that is strong support at 1128.50 and then 1126.75. Retracing this lower support can still keep the bullish Aberration intact on the Sell Mode but this is the point where the original Sell Mode began which took us down to 1101.25 on the lows. So on any strong pullback today or tommorrow 1126.50 is a powerful "Line in the Sand" as far as our analysis goes.
Value Area: 1,137.10 - 1,140.10
Holding below 1137.00 keeps the market bearish with a sell bias. An early move lower towards support at 1130-33 could bounce up and attempt to get back in the VA but it appears that could be a test area now for support/resistance.
Live Traders on our update service may recall how on Monday that was a pivotal price that just kind of got stuck right there. Hence today's important focus on that number being the bottom of the VA.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,133.25 - 1,134.25
We would want to watch for a reaction to this pivot on a lower, early move but not necessarily trade it forthright.
I will be looking for clear signals on the MFO (Market Force Oscillator) in this 1130-33.00 price zone for a long side trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,139.25 - 1,138.25
This was big resistance on Monday. If prices move lower first and find support near the above mentioned zone of 1130-33.00 then we may see a trip up to test this area again. This would mean a slight dip into the Value Area.
If prices rise into the VA, hit these numbers and sell off below 1137.00 then that is a bearish sign.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,117.30
We are still buying dips above this number. After prices blew through the Pit Bull back to the upside it has been left in the dust. On Monday the spread between prices and the Pit Bull was about 25 points and often this can be a sign to look for a tightening of that spread. Not necessarily a return to the Pit Bull but just a closer relationship in the spread.
Pro Trader's Action
Like Monday we may be in for another tight range day today.
Watch for a tight range day if the High 5 are mixed in bias. If we get a one sided Mega Bearish High 5 then we could see range expansion to the downside.
Otherwise expect support to come in on the lows and an attempt to get back above 1137.00
Overall bias is expected to continue higher with the Sell Mode in aberration but strong signals came in on today's numbers suggesting that the aberration on the Sell Mode could be over very quickly here and we could start heading back lower again. 1126.50 is the key number to determine this...so watch this carefully.
Otherwise, let's see how the opening will go today and how to rate the bias.
Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Alex
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- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
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