Mohan 04/10/04
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Mohan 04/10/04
Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Watch for higher prices early that hit a peak and stall going into 1:30 est. Pullback after 1:30 est is expected.
Monday, October 4, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 14.30 Value Area
Range: 5.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,138.00-1,137.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,133.50
Close 1,133.20
1,133.10
1,127.50
1,123.75-1,124.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,119.70
Low 1,119.20
1,115.90 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 1, 2004:
1)S@1129.25/B@1131.00 -1.75.....
2)S@1130.25/B@1129.00 +1.25 (2nd Level Sell abve 1130.50 up +1.50 or more)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was relaxing for you.
On Friday we had a powerful gap up opening and early strong price rally which clearly put our underlying Market Force indicators into aberration. Our Sell Mode signals have been short from 1126.00 down to 1101.00 low area of the move and have now gone into aberration on the Sell Mode having passed 1126.00.
The short term aberration could last for a few days or a few weeks. One never knows. We will watch for the faltering of the rally and then signals that we are about to resume the downside.
With the upcoming election and the end of the quarter in a Presidential cycle we could see some strong upward gains. 1200.00 on the S&P500 futures is not at all out of the question. When that occurs will remain to be seen.
The downside will need to washout first once more setting up the new Buy Mode. Remember we are only in a temporary aberration now on the Sell Mode which could resume anytime after the aberration runs it's course.
Here are my comments from the Wrap Up on Friday at the close.
"The market gapped up +5.00 pts. on the open and the High 5 went mega bullish right out of the gates. This action would immediately invalidate our Headline Call if if was Bearish.
Prices established a low early at 1119.00 and then soared to 1123.00 in 15 minutes before exploding to 1129.00 in the next half hour. There was no apparent reasoning expressed for the rally other than "good underlying support" type commentary from the financial media.
After the strong move up as we waited for the first hour to finish our goal was to look for a spot where we could catch a fade off the new explosion highs inspite of the strong High 5.
We got short at 1129.25 and waited for a price pullback well aware of scalping only 2-3 points. Prices stagnated and gradually moved up towards our stop set at 1131.50. We exited prior to the stop at 1131.00 for a -1.75 loss.
Prices rallied again shortly after that above 1131.50 so getting out early was good.
Another MFO signal came in just after prices rallied again and we got short at 1130.25. We patiently waited as we got 2nd Level Sell opportunities above 1130.50. Prices started weakening and we were able to close out the trade at 1129.00 for a +1.25 gain on the core level entry and for 1.50+ on the 2nd Level shorts.
Low of that move came in at 1128.25 which we noticed on our MFO and covered the short. We stood aside at that point and the market pressed higher for the rest of the session. On balance about a Break Even to very slight loss day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are looking for prices to move higher and find a peak point where prices are expected to stall. Later in the session we are going to be looking for a pullback off the highs to occur most likely after 1:30 est.
If possible we would like to get long fairly early and then be able to wait for a later test of highs looking for an expected pullback to short. Now of course this will depend on if we get a gap opening and how large it is. Also will depend on how the High 5 are acting under the circumstance.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS: If we see a gap up opening and the High 5 are bullish but show some sign of a more neutral or even bearish appearance such as a rising TRIN above .90 or the Nasdaq not following through with continued strength then our call should be in line. On such a setup we would look for the prices to BreakOut above the Hour One high but start to stall about 3-6 points above the Hour One high. We would look for a short spot near there but may choose to wait for the period between 10-12:00est for prices to flip flop around.
If we get a lower opening and a strong early pullback then it is expected that we will see the bullishness continue from the support levels. On such a setup be prepared to buy the Hour One low area and most likely right at or very close to that number.
On overnight trading prices have reached 1138.50 so first support is Friday's close at 1133.25. Below that is 1128.25-112350-25.50-then 1119.50
Upside resistance is at 1139.00-(1142-43)big resistance and 1147.00.
There is a chance we will see prices attempt to drop earlier than 1:30 est but most likely the dips will be bought up with late bulls precieving that we are in a new bullish trend.
As mentioned although we are in an aberration on the Sell Mode we could see this counter rally start to fizzle out at anytime including today. Interest rates are being hiked gradually and the Election is up in the air now after the debates.
Value Area: 1,127.50 - 1,133.10
Trade holding above 1133.20 remains bullish but watch for any further rallies that end up pulling back into this VA to be a bearish sign for short term trading.
The tendency of day traders when they see larger moves in the market is to forget that we are INTRADAY TRADERS and start thinking about "trends". Our business is usually FADING precieved ideas about so-called Trends intraday when everyone believing in that gets too loaded on one side.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,123.75 - 1,124.75
Support is here for today. I don't expect we are going to pullback this far especially if the opening is near the highs of the overnight globex trading at 1138-39.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,138.00 - 1,137.00
No trade at the Sell Pivot if we open right on this number. Instead it will most likely be some kind of support area in the morning session.
+4.25 is 1142.25 which falls exactly on our next level up of resistance. Watch this number for possible selling short area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,115.90
Market left the Pit Bull in the dust on Friday which in our Headline Call we had designated as a "Line in the Sand" (1115.00).
We have rapidly added on 20 points to that since Friday and today will be watching for either a strong resistance area at 1139-43.00 or to see prices plow through that area and continue higher.
Most likely for today we are expecting prices to hit resistance and pullback later in the session.
Pro Trader's Action
If we can get some kind of flat opening instead of a gap open we should be able to get long and catch some further upside move.
Problem is that it appears from overnight trading on Globex that we are going to gap up again today. With the huge gap up and rapid move up on Friday this is showing signs of what I call "Leveling Up". This is where you are really only able to capture long points by being long in a position from lower levels and holding overnight.
If we see another "Level Up" today as expected where prices gap up, run up some, and then hang up on the highs then we are expecting a pullback later in the session that would be more tradeable from the short side.
Getting long on a gap open today could be very risky so we have to wait it out for a signal from our Market Force Oscillator before getting involved.
In markets like these for inexperienced day traders it appears as if you are "missing a huge move". Well you are IF YOU ARE A POSITION TRADER but NOT if you are an intraday trader.
The markets gapped up on Friday by +5 pts and screamed higher to 1129.00 in a very short period of time on fast, spike moves up. Once up at the 1129-30 area for an intraday trader THE MARKET HARDLY WENT ANYWHERE AT ALL.
Let's see how they open today and run first. We should be able to position a short later in the session if prices run up and hang at the highs into 1:30est as planned. The High 5 will be the key to watch as we move into that time frame.
All the best of success today. Mohan
Monday, October 4, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 14.30 Value Area
Range: 5.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,138.00-1,137.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,133.50
Close 1,133.20
1,133.10
1,127.50
1,123.75-1,124.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,119.70
Low 1,119.20
1,115.90 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 1, 2004:
1)S@1129.25/B@1131.00 -1.75.....
2)S@1130.25/B@1129.00 +1.25 (2nd Level Sell abve 1130.50 up +1.50 or more)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was relaxing for you.
On Friday we had a powerful gap up opening and early strong price rally which clearly put our underlying Market Force indicators into aberration. Our Sell Mode signals have been short from 1126.00 down to 1101.00 low area of the move and have now gone into aberration on the Sell Mode having passed 1126.00.
The short term aberration could last for a few days or a few weeks. One never knows. We will watch for the faltering of the rally and then signals that we are about to resume the downside.
With the upcoming election and the end of the quarter in a Presidential cycle we could see some strong upward gains. 1200.00 on the S&P500 futures is not at all out of the question. When that occurs will remain to be seen.
The downside will need to washout first once more setting up the new Buy Mode. Remember we are only in a temporary aberration now on the Sell Mode which could resume anytime after the aberration runs it's course.
Here are my comments from the Wrap Up on Friday at the close.
"The market gapped up +5.00 pts. on the open and the High 5 went mega bullish right out of the gates. This action would immediately invalidate our Headline Call if if was Bearish.
Prices established a low early at 1119.00 and then soared to 1123.00 in 15 minutes before exploding to 1129.00 in the next half hour. There was no apparent reasoning expressed for the rally other than "good underlying support" type commentary from the financial media.
After the strong move up as we waited for the first hour to finish our goal was to look for a spot where we could catch a fade off the new explosion highs inspite of the strong High 5.
We got short at 1129.25 and waited for a price pullback well aware of scalping only 2-3 points. Prices stagnated and gradually moved up towards our stop set at 1131.50. We exited prior to the stop at 1131.00 for a -1.75 loss.
Prices rallied again shortly after that above 1131.50 so getting out early was good.
Another MFO signal came in just after prices rallied again and we got short at 1130.25. We patiently waited as we got 2nd Level Sell opportunities above 1130.50. Prices started weakening and we were able to close out the trade at 1129.00 for a +1.25 gain on the core level entry and for 1.50+ on the 2nd Level shorts.
Low of that move came in at 1128.25 which we noticed on our MFO and covered the short. We stood aside at that point and the market pressed higher for the rest of the session. On balance about a Break Even to very slight loss day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are looking for prices to move higher and find a peak point where prices are expected to stall. Later in the session we are going to be looking for a pullback off the highs to occur most likely after 1:30 est.
If possible we would like to get long fairly early and then be able to wait for a later test of highs looking for an expected pullback to short. Now of course this will depend on if we get a gap opening and how large it is. Also will depend on how the High 5 are acting under the circumstance.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS: If we see a gap up opening and the High 5 are bullish but show some sign of a more neutral or even bearish appearance such as a rising TRIN above .90 or the Nasdaq not following through with continued strength then our call should be in line. On such a setup we would look for the prices to BreakOut above the Hour One high but start to stall about 3-6 points above the Hour One high. We would look for a short spot near there but may choose to wait for the period between 10-12:00est for prices to flip flop around.
If we get a lower opening and a strong early pullback then it is expected that we will see the bullishness continue from the support levels. On such a setup be prepared to buy the Hour One low area and most likely right at or very close to that number.
On overnight trading prices have reached 1138.50 so first support is Friday's close at 1133.25. Below that is 1128.25-112350-25.50-then 1119.50
Upside resistance is at 1139.00-(1142-43)big resistance and 1147.00.
There is a chance we will see prices attempt to drop earlier than 1:30 est but most likely the dips will be bought up with late bulls precieving that we are in a new bullish trend.
As mentioned although we are in an aberration on the Sell Mode we could see this counter rally start to fizzle out at anytime including today. Interest rates are being hiked gradually and the Election is up in the air now after the debates.
Value Area: 1,127.50 - 1,133.10
Trade holding above 1133.20 remains bullish but watch for any further rallies that end up pulling back into this VA to be a bearish sign for short term trading.
The tendency of day traders when they see larger moves in the market is to forget that we are INTRADAY TRADERS and start thinking about "trends". Our business is usually FADING precieved ideas about so-called Trends intraday when everyone believing in that gets too loaded on one side.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,123.75 - 1,124.75
Support is here for today. I don't expect we are going to pullback this far especially if the opening is near the highs of the overnight globex trading at 1138-39.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,138.00 - 1,137.00
No trade at the Sell Pivot if we open right on this number. Instead it will most likely be some kind of support area in the morning session.
+4.25 is 1142.25 which falls exactly on our next level up of resistance. Watch this number for possible selling short area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,115.90
Market left the Pit Bull in the dust on Friday which in our Headline Call we had designated as a "Line in the Sand" (1115.00).
We have rapidly added on 20 points to that since Friday and today will be watching for either a strong resistance area at 1139-43.00 or to see prices plow through that area and continue higher.
Most likely for today we are expecting prices to hit resistance and pullback later in the session.
Pro Trader's Action
If we can get some kind of flat opening instead of a gap open we should be able to get long and catch some further upside move.
Problem is that it appears from overnight trading on Globex that we are going to gap up again today. With the huge gap up and rapid move up on Friday this is showing signs of what I call "Leveling Up". This is where you are really only able to capture long points by being long in a position from lower levels and holding overnight.
If we see another "Level Up" today as expected where prices gap up, run up some, and then hang up on the highs then we are expecting a pullback later in the session that would be more tradeable from the short side.
Getting long on a gap open today could be very risky so we have to wait it out for a signal from our Market Force Oscillator before getting involved.
In markets like these for inexperienced day traders it appears as if you are "missing a huge move". Well you are IF YOU ARE A POSITION TRADER but NOT if you are an intraday trader.
The markets gapped up on Friday by +5 pts and screamed higher to 1129.00 in a very short period of time on fast, spike moves up. Once up at the 1129-30 area for an intraday trader THE MARKET HARDLY WENT ANYWHERE AT ALL.
Let's see how they open today and run first. We should be able to position a short later in the session if prices run up and hang at the highs into 1:30est as planned. The High 5 will be the key to watch as we move into that time frame.
All the best of success today. Mohan
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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