Mohan 01/10/04, aqui vai
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Mohan 01/10/04, aqui vai
Market Force: Neutral/Bearish. Market is at a Crossroads with a "Line in the Sand" drawn at 1115.00. A large drop to below 1100.00 (1085.00) is waiting in the wings.
Friday, October 1, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.20 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,118.00-1,117.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,116.80
1,115.50 Pit Bull MA
1,114.90
Close 1,114.90
Open 1,112.70
1,111.90
1,110.75-1,111.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,109.60
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, September 30, 2004:
B@1111.50/ S@1110.00 -1.50
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us.
On Thursday we were looking to get long on the morning setup that was occuring and with our Headline showing a Neutral Bias. That is exactly what we got on Friday as prices moved lower early, rallied, and then fell back off the highs. Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service.
"After watching the markets open a bit lower and push lower this morning I could see we wanted to be on the long side of the market.
The High 5 were very mixed with the Dow down substantially but Nasdaq and TRIN in OK shape. However, with the Prez debates going on tonite I felt the market could become stagnant.
After weighing the possibilities I decided we should get long on the Hour One low after seeing MFO readings there to buy. We got long at 1111.50. Prices stalled right at that price with lower pressure coming on. After seeing prices stalling at 1111.00 and pushing lower I had posted that 1109.50 was the expected low but that we would look to exit if prices moved below 1110.25 as the upside appeared limited to maybe just 1115-1116 OR that prices would stagnate.
So with that I decided to just exit the long trade and stand aside for today waiting for a regular trading day without any Wild Card factors. We got out at 1110.00 for a -1.50 loss. Prices stayed under 1113.00 for the next 2 hours and finally found their way up towards 1116-17 as planned before falling off dramatically in 30 minutes all the way back to under 1112.00 again. They call that "Flip Flopping" which all politicians are good at.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is another neutral day but with a slightly more negative bias. The signals for the Crash Alert we got yesterday may end up manifesting today. Maybe not, but we just have to prepare for the possibility.
One sign of that would be to see prices move higher in the morning and then come down and hit the BreakDown Hour One low FIRST AGAIN for the second day in a row. If the High 5 are Mega Bearish then they are going to sell off BELOW the Hour One low and we can plan accordingly.
If we run up and hit the Hour One high today then watch for the chance of a BreakOut buy attempt IF the High 5 are really Mega Bullish.
This is not expected today and we would expect rallies to keep getting hit with selling with the additional Bearish bias in the Market Force.
Resistance is: 1113-1115- then 1117-18.00 with 1122.00 expected to hold back any buying. This range shown here is a resistance range for the next move down in the Sell Mode which ultimately is fufilled near 1085 area.
Support is: 1113.00 then 1110.75. Below that 1109.50 last 2 days support then 1107.00. Below that is -4.25 stop/pivot at 1105.50 then 1103.00-1101 and then 1098.00. Below 1100 we get going towards 1091-93 and then a washout to 1085 to fufill the Sell Mode. These lower numbers below 1100 are not planned for today but on a Mega Bearish Ugly Sell off below the B/O today we could see 1101.00 as being possible.
Value Area: 1,111.90 - 1,114.90
Holding Below 1112.00 sets up lower numbers shown above.
If BreakDown is hit first and is BELOW 1112.00 then we would expect that to be a new ceiling for the trip down to the lower numbers and below 1100.00
Buy Pivot Target: 1,110.75 - 1,111.75
Support here for today but not a trade. We will rely on the live intraday Market Force Oscillator to tell us where to trade exactly.
You can use this area to compare to the Hour One low and see what they can get going. Below this is the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1105.50 and is vital to hold up the selling or we are going to get hammered below 1100.00
If all this comes to pass it may tie in with the markets awarding the U.S. Presidency to the challenger as is a traditional sign of the markets when the challenger is showing strength. This is said without political bias and I'm not even totally sure if this indicator will work in the new markets. It has been fairly effective over last 2 decades.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,118.00 - 1,117.00
Watch for big resistance up here. We will probably be looking for a trade up in this area this morning on a flat to higher opening and early run up here.
1122.00 is expected to cap off any extended bullish enthusiasm.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,115.50
Here is the "Line in the Sand" we talk about in the Headline Call which coincides with the Pit Bull number almost exactly.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is another particularly tricky day but with the first Prez debate out of the way it's just going to be a regular election year type October I expect.
IE: no particular Wild Cards other than the ones indicated by the Market Force indicators which I share with you each day on these Morning Call briefings.
Let's look to get and stay on the sell side on a higher opening and early run up in prices OR on a move to the BreakDown first with a Bearish Ugly High Five.
Buying is still good if we get the early punch lower first but with a neutral High 5. There is still the underlying bullish mood ready to lift prices ...but only within this small Aberration range up to 1122.00 within the context of the Sell Mode we are in.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
P.S. Have you called and requested your free one week trial yet to my Live Update Service??? Call (800) 806-4801. Seriously, there is not any kind of obligation. Just check it out and see if it will help you with your trading profits.
We are up about 17 points since I introduced my Market Force Oscillator just 10 sessions (2 weeks) ago.
As a Hypethetical example (although I trade it in real time as do all of our subscribers) using 2000$ margin per contract that is about 850$ per contract minus about 100$ commision on the 17 trades. 750$ divided into 2 Grand is: is 37% return in 2 weeks. And most brokerages will let you trade for 1000$ per contract which makes that a 75% return in 2 weeks.
We use very tight 2.25 or less stops and 2nd level entries for adding contracts so on a sample of 5 contracts that is about 3750$ profit potential on a 5000$ account with about a 6$ commission price per round turn factored in. And I plan on making it more profitable as we grow in skill.*
*There is risk in trading futures. Results are hypethetical and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
Friday, October 1, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.20 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,118.00-1,117.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,116.80
1,115.50 Pit Bull MA
1,114.90
Close 1,114.90
Open 1,112.70
1,111.90
1,110.75-1,111.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,109.60
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, September 30, 2004:
B@1111.50/ S@1110.00 -1.50
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us.
On Thursday we were looking to get long on the morning setup that was occuring and with our Headline showing a Neutral Bias. That is exactly what we got on Friday as prices moved lower early, rallied, and then fell back off the highs. Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service.
"After watching the markets open a bit lower and push lower this morning I could see we wanted to be on the long side of the market.
The High 5 were very mixed with the Dow down substantially but Nasdaq and TRIN in OK shape. However, with the Prez debates going on tonite I felt the market could become stagnant.
After weighing the possibilities I decided we should get long on the Hour One low after seeing MFO readings there to buy. We got long at 1111.50. Prices stalled right at that price with lower pressure coming on. After seeing prices stalling at 1111.00 and pushing lower I had posted that 1109.50 was the expected low but that we would look to exit if prices moved below 1110.25 as the upside appeared limited to maybe just 1115-1116 OR that prices would stagnate.
So with that I decided to just exit the long trade and stand aside for today waiting for a regular trading day without any Wild Card factors. We got out at 1110.00 for a -1.50 loss. Prices stayed under 1113.00 for the next 2 hours and finally found their way up towards 1116-17 as planned before falling off dramatically in 30 minutes all the way back to under 1112.00 again. They call that "Flip Flopping" which all politicians are good at.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is another neutral day but with a slightly more negative bias. The signals for the Crash Alert we got yesterday may end up manifesting today. Maybe not, but we just have to prepare for the possibility.
One sign of that would be to see prices move higher in the morning and then come down and hit the BreakDown Hour One low FIRST AGAIN for the second day in a row. If the High 5 are Mega Bearish then they are going to sell off BELOW the Hour One low and we can plan accordingly.
If we run up and hit the Hour One high today then watch for the chance of a BreakOut buy attempt IF the High 5 are really Mega Bullish.
This is not expected today and we would expect rallies to keep getting hit with selling with the additional Bearish bias in the Market Force.
Resistance is: 1113-1115- then 1117-18.00 with 1122.00 expected to hold back any buying. This range shown here is a resistance range for the next move down in the Sell Mode which ultimately is fufilled near 1085 area.
Support is: 1113.00 then 1110.75. Below that 1109.50 last 2 days support then 1107.00. Below that is -4.25 stop/pivot at 1105.50 then 1103.00-1101 and then 1098.00. Below 1100 we get going towards 1091-93 and then a washout to 1085 to fufill the Sell Mode. These lower numbers below 1100 are not planned for today but on a Mega Bearish Ugly Sell off below the B/O today we could see 1101.00 as being possible.
Value Area: 1,111.90 - 1,114.90
Holding Below 1112.00 sets up lower numbers shown above.
If BreakDown is hit first and is BELOW 1112.00 then we would expect that to be a new ceiling for the trip down to the lower numbers and below 1100.00
Buy Pivot Target: 1,110.75 - 1,111.75
Support here for today but not a trade. We will rely on the live intraday Market Force Oscillator to tell us where to trade exactly.
You can use this area to compare to the Hour One low and see what they can get going. Below this is the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1105.50 and is vital to hold up the selling or we are going to get hammered below 1100.00
If all this comes to pass it may tie in with the markets awarding the U.S. Presidency to the challenger as is a traditional sign of the markets when the challenger is showing strength. This is said without political bias and I'm not even totally sure if this indicator will work in the new markets. It has been fairly effective over last 2 decades.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,118.00 - 1,117.00
Watch for big resistance up here. We will probably be looking for a trade up in this area this morning on a flat to higher opening and early run up here.
1122.00 is expected to cap off any extended bullish enthusiasm.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,115.50
Here is the "Line in the Sand" we talk about in the Headline Call which coincides with the Pit Bull number almost exactly.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is another particularly tricky day but with the first Prez debate out of the way it's just going to be a regular election year type October I expect.
IE: no particular Wild Cards other than the ones indicated by the Market Force indicators which I share with you each day on these Morning Call briefings.
Let's look to get and stay on the sell side on a higher opening and early run up in prices OR on a move to the BreakDown first with a Bearish Ugly High Five.
Buying is still good if we get the early punch lower first but with a neutral High 5. There is still the underlying bullish mood ready to lift prices ...but only within this small Aberration range up to 1122.00 within the context of the Sell Mode we are in.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
P.S. Have you called and requested your free one week trial yet to my Live Update Service??? Call (800) 806-4801. Seriously, there is not any kind of obligation. Just check it out and see if it will help you with your trading profits.
We are up about 17 points since I introduced my Market Force Oscillator just 10 sessions (2 weeks) ago.
As a Hypethetical example (although I trade it in real time as do all of our subscribers) using 2000$ margin per contract that is about 850$ per contract minus about 100$ commision on the 17 trades. 750$ divided into 2 Grand is: is 37% return in 2 weeks. And most brokerages will let you trade for 1000$ per contract which makes that a 75% return in 2 weeks.
We use very tight 2.25 or less stops and 2nd level entries for adding contracts so on a sample of 5 contracts that is about 3750$ profit potential on a 5000$ account with about a 6$ commission price per round turn factored in. And I plan on making it more profitable as we grow in skill.*
*There is risk in trading futures. Results are hypethetical and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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