Mohan 24/09/04
Enviado: 24/9/2004 10:21Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Look for early, lower moves to find support and close on a neutral mid range day. On a higher open and early rally attempt keep selling highs for lower pressure to continue.
Friday, September 24, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.30 Value Area
Range: 3.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,122.60 Pit Bull MA
High 1,114.30
1,113.40
Open 1,113.40
1,112.00-1,111.00 Sell Pivot
1,110.00
Close 1,107.20
Low 1,107.00
1,104.75-1,105.75 Buy Pivot
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, September 23, 2004:
No trades recommended today.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
Things were very slow yesterday again with a small 7.50 tight range and little price movement. Market is gradually drifting lower as outlined in our recent Morning Call briefings and we expect things to deteriorate more.
We didn't make any trades on Wednesday as there were not clear signals from our Market Force Oscillator. Here are my closing comments about the day.
"We stood aside today as the market was trading in a very small, tight range.
At one point prices hit the Hour One low quickly and jumped higher however with the TRIN above 1.50 at the time we were looking for a lower move below the Hour One low to make a safer trade.
Prices moved up from 1109 to 1113 area and headed back down making slightly new lows into the close for a very quiet day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we have a Market Force reading for a Bearish/Neutral day.
What that means is that if we get a lower opening and an early run lower then there should be support starting to come in and a mild reversal to the upside. We are NOT expecting a strong, positive day however in the stocks.
If we get an early higher open or rally off of a flat open then we would expect the early highs to keep getting hit with selling. There are too many traders counting on a bullish scenario here and it is not going to pan out just yet under current conditions.
In fact, I have projections lower going down as far as the 1078-80.00 range as things heat up with the Presidential debates rolling into the end of next week.
I am expecting some minor support near the 1100.00 handle and with our Buy Pivot target today I am willing to look for a chance to catch a bounce IF we get the flat to lower opening and early run down there.
If we get a higher early run then we want to look to Sell the Hour One BreakOut attempt as long as the High 5 are not Mega bullish or anything and there is not any strong bullish news suggesting we should buy. Prices will most likely fade off of that early rally attempt and we can scalp a pullback.
1105.00 area buy target should hold the 1101.00 price and we will look to get long just below 1105.00 if we can on a flat to lower opening. 1101.00 just could be a temporary washout low area so we will be watching the numbers in this area carefully on the open half hour today.
Value Area: 1,110.00 - 1,113.40
Trade below the 1110.00 is bearish so we would be bucking the trend lower buying below 1105.00 but there is a good chance we could move back up into this VA range. Worth a shot if the High 5 are not mega bearish.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,104.75 - 1,105.75
Here we go. Watch this area for a buy EARLY today with all the right signals in place. We should see support at 1101.-2.00 or higher.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,112.00 - 1,111.00
We will not look to sell at this target but be watching this area in comparison to the Hour One high for a BreakOut sell. 1116.25 is expected to hold back any rallies.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,122.60
We are trading below the Pit Bull and want to maintain a "Sell Rallies" mentality below this number. Should be headed lower towards 1180 before the smoke clears in this seasonally weak period.
Pro Trader's Action
I've outlined our strategy for the day which is basically this:
Stay on the Sell side if we get an early rally atttempt
Look to get long on an early move lower under 1105.00 with expectation of 1101.00 holding up the selling.
Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Friday, September 24, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.30 Value Area
Range: 3.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,122.60 Pit Bull MA
High 1,114.30
1,113.40
Open 1,113.40
1,112.00-1,111.00 Sell Pivot
1,110.00
Close 1,107.20
Low 1,107.00
1,104.75-1,105.75 Buy Pivot
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, September 23, 2004:
No trades recommended today.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
Things were very slow yesterday again with a small 7.50 tight range and little price movement. Market is gradually drifting lower as outlined in our recent Morning Call briefings and we expect things to deteriorate more.
We didn't make any trades on Wednesday as there were not clear signals from our Market Force Oscillator. Here are my closing comments about the day.
"We stood aside today as the market was trading in a very small, tight range.
At one point prices hit the Hour One low quickly and jumped higher however with the TRIN above 1.50 at the time we were looking for a lower move below the Hour One low to make a safer trade.
Prices moved up from 1109 to 1113 area and headed back down making slightly new lows into the close for a very quiet day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we have a Market Force reading for a Bearish/Neutral day.
What that means is that if we get a lower opening and an early run lower then there should be support starting to come in and a mild reversal to the upside. We are NOT expecting a strong, positive day however in the stocks.
If we get an early higher open or rally off of a flat open then we would expect the early highs to keep getting hit with selling. There are too many traders counting on a bullish scenario here and it is not going to pan out just yet under current conditions.
In fact, I have projections lower going down as far as the 1078-80.00 range as things heat up with the Presidential debates rolling into the end of next week.
I am expecting some minor support near the 1100.00 handle and with our Buy Pivot target today I am willing to look for a chance to catch a bounce IF we get the flat to lower opening and early run down there.
If we get a higher early run then we want to look to Sell the Hour One BreakOut attempt as long as the High 5 are not Mega bullish or anything and there is not any strong bullish news suggesting we should buy. Prices will most likely fade off of that early rally attempt and we can scalp a pullback.
1105.00 area buy target should hold the 1101.00 price and we will look to get long just below 1105.00 if we can on a flat to lower opening. 1101.00 just could be a temporary washout low area so we will be watching the numbers in this area carefully on the open half hour today.
Value Area: 1,110.00 - 1,113.40
Trade below the 1110.00 is bearish so we would be bucking the trend lower buying below 1105.00 but there is a good chance we could move back up into this VA range. Worth a shot if the High 5 are not mega bearish.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,104.75 - 1,105.75
Here we go. Watch this area for a buy EARLY today with all the right signals in place. We should see support at 1101.-2.00 or higher.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,112.00 - 1,111.00
We will not look to sell at this target but be watching this area in comparison to the Hour One high for a BreakOut sell. 1116.25 is expected to hold back any rallies.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,122.60
We are trading below the Pit Bull and want to maintain a "Sell Rallies" mentality below this number. Should be headed lower towards 1180 before the smoke clears in this seasonally weak period.
Pro Trader's Action
I've outlined our strategy for the day which is basically this:
Stay on the Sell side if we get an early rally atttempt
Look to get long on an early move lower under 1105.00 with expectation of 1101.00 holding up the selling.
Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan