CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Já agora, deixo aqui o outro artigo que ele escreveu sobre a BRCM perto do fecho da sessão de hoje.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

"One Place for Broadcom to Go: Up"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/13/2004 3:31 PM EDT



"So, if bad earnings doesn't knock a stock down, and crummy outlook doesn't knock it down, then what does knock it down?

That's what so many people are asking me today after the stunning Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - commentary - research) rally off the terrible outlook.

Sorry to be so simple, but people are asking the wrong questions. My wife, the former Trading Goddess, taught me years ago to look at the darned picture before I ask a question, and if you look at the picture of Broadcom, you will see a chart that is already down, down so low that it could have issued a release saying "People who own our stock are chuckleheads," and it still would have gone up.

Sometimes stocks are that low. Sometimes stocks are that hammered. And when we find out what is wrong, we of the long side breathe a sigh of relief, and they of the short side can't create any new sellers because the only people left holding Broadcom after the sickening slide it has already had are the people who will not sell no matter what!

That people still don't get this is astounding. They clearly haven't looked at the picture.

And they haven't smelled the coffee."

(in www.realmoney.com)

Hoje o Cramer (que esteve muito pessimista sobre a BRCM quando ela cotava nos 40 dólares), antes da sessão iniciar teve uma grande "call" num artigo sobre a BRCM.

Aqui fica ele:

"Bounceback Begins in Broadcom"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/13/2004 8:54 AM EDT

"Do you take the risk that Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - commentary - research) is like Vishay (VSH:NYSE - commentary - research) and Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE - commentary - research) and National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE - commentary - research)? Do you take the risk that the guidedown is bad but not as bad as everyone expected? Can something as allegedly unexpected as a guidedown be "in the stock."

Yes. Yes. Yes.

Sure Broadcom's got this negative China spit, but how long can that last? Sure Broadcom's more expensive than Vishay or Texas Instruments, but it's always been so. The big change here is only that when semis report bad things the stocks are already so low that they don't go down any more.

To me Broadcom's got a fabulous, high-growth product portfolio. That's what matters after a stock's been cut in half with everyone waiting for the earnings blowup. Now that we have it, I think buyers will come out from the wings and short-sellers will, alas, be forced to cover.

At the end of last quarter I wrote about BERQY, which were the stocks I predicted the momentum mutual funds would mark up. They did, and all of them promptly crashed as soon as the quarter mark-ups were over. As is typical, here we are in the third month of another quarter and eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Research in Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) are headed back to their highs, which is pretty amazing, given all the grief I received for pointing this out. I guess they will all have to praise me now that the stocks are back. Or perhaps the critics will just hold Broadcom against me.

Or, better yet, today begins the run back in Broadcom because, alas, as bad as it is, it isn't worse than TXN and VSH. And we all know where they went after reporting. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Warming to the Warning

By Seth Jayson (TMFBent)
September 13, 2004

As the guy on the message board put it, "They should warn more often!"

That's the sentiment of many Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM) shareholders after the market bid the stock up 11% following -- get this -- a revenue warning. Sure, anything can happen to a stock that's trading not far from its 52-week low, and the argument will be that "worse news" was priced in. But you have to wonder if the enthusiasm is warranted.

I'm not a big believer in the kind of breezy generalizations that pass for analysis of an entire industry, but the succession of major chip firms having stumbles over the past few weeks has been enough to make anyone believe that the semiconductor industry is run by starry-eyed optimists.

Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC) inventory woes got the most press, but there have been recent oopsies from the likes of Conexant (Nasdaq: CNXT), which was hammered back in July for making a similar announcement.

Broadcom lowered its third-quarter revenue target by 5% from its previous guidance to $641 million. That would represent 5% growth over the second quarter, but 50% over the prior-year period. Management claims the "industry-wide" inventory glut that's crimping everyone else's style should be short-lived, and, in their case, remains limited to weaknesses in the market for products designed for mobile handsets and set-top boxes.

A Fool would do well to ponder that statement; especially since the handset market has been red-hot, with last quarter's shipments up 35%, even better than industry watchers predicted. How do you know that the firm's crystal ball is focused now?

No, it can't be easy trying to predict demand when your products have become a commodity. And that's just the problem. There's competition everywhere, and fickle consumers can render the best forecasts meaningless as quickly as you can zip a purse shut.

That's why this sector, including peers like Agere Systems (NYSE: AGRa), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), and PMC-Sierra (Nasdaq: PMCS), has been so brutally punished this year. It was supposed to be -- according to some -- a great play earlier this summer, though my persnickety colleague Bill Mann was a good deal less bullish, and he's been right so far.

Broadcom may be a marquee name, or the darling of the moment, but, cheap as it may look in light of the -- wildly variable -- analysts' earnings estimates, it can't escape the reality of its brutal sector. If you must have your tech, there are plenty of other companies out there with great growth and better locks on their respective markets.


Seth Jayson loves tech, but prefers companies with a better stranglehold on the competition. He has no position in any company mentioned

(..)

Shares of Broadcom (BRCM: news, chart, profile), however, were marked lower after the broadband chipmaker late Sunday lowered its sales outlook for the third quarter.

Broadcom raised the inventory issue for the delay. It said "requests from certain customers that the delivery of previously scheduled orders be delayed into future periods due to excess inventory within the supply chain." Shares were marked at $25.80 in London, dealers said, down from a $27.70 close.

Germany's memory chipmaker Infineon Technologies (IFX: news, chart, profile) and STMicro (STM: news, chart, profile) were continuing to notch gains.

The Dow industrials were up 18 points at 10,319 around 7 a.m. Eastern.

Chip stocks have been rebounding sharply, with the Philly benchmark ($SOX: news, chart, profile) up 3.4 percent on Friday. The index rose 7 percent over the last week; it remains down 32 percent from its peak.

The chip stocks are expected to remain a focus. Merrill Lynch overnight said the semi stocks are now trading above trough valuation on enterprise value/sales and price/book measures.

"Many semiconductor stocks appear to be attractive based on forecasted 2005 earnings," the broker cautioned. "However, we continue to be concerned about the quality of those earnings estimates, especially in light of the series of earnings misses during the last two weeks."

Merrill said it cut earnings estimates for some chipmakers, including AMD (AMD: news, chart, profile), Micron Technology (MU: news, chart, profile), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM: news, chart, profile) and PMC Sierra (PMCS: news, chart, profile).