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[Ulisses Pereira]

"It All Comes Down to the Jobs Data"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/1/2004 3:19 PM EDT


"Once again, it all comes down to payrolls, the August employment report due out Friday. And once again, I think we will be disappointed with job growth. I have been correctly bearish about job growth for the last three months, and I don't think Friday's number will be any different.

How bad will it be?

I think a repeat of the same darned dismal numbers we have seen for the last two months is in the cards. In fact, I think we will be lucky if this past month created any jobs.

To me, it looks like we could be seeing a 3 handle on the 10-year. And as much as I love low interest rates, I reiterate: Those who are playing economic expansion are playing the wrong team.

As someone who favors higher stock prices, I can't be happy with this number. As someone who thinks that the presidential race right now doesn't seem close and that Bush is ahead, I can't believe it can stay that way unless Kerry is as bad a candidate as I am beginning to believe.

Or to put it another way: With the job growth that I expect to see, almost anybody but Kerry could win.

But then again, only Kerry is running against Bush. Maybe that's all that matters. "

(in www.realmoney.com)