Tarifas mais baixas levam FMI a melhorar projeções para economia mundial

[Alfred E. Neuman]

8:39am 09/01/04
Smith Barney sees more downside potential for chips (INTC, TXN, XLNX, IDTI, CY, ALTR) By Tomi Kilgore

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Smith Barney believes the semiconductor sector is entering the final phase of stock price declines, but believes there is still downside potential of about 20 percent as lowered estimates drive compression in industry valuations. The broker cut his stock price target on Intel (INTC) to $25.50 from $30, on Texas Instruments (TXN) to $22.50 from $26.50, on Xilinx (XLNX) to $30 from $31, on Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) to $12 from $15 and on Cypress Semiconductor (CY) to $11 from $12.50. Of the group, the broker's top pick on an expected pullback in shares is Intel, and expects to see "stronger trading rallies" in Texas Instruments and Altera (ALTR) . Intel was last down 4 cents at $21.25 in pre-open trading.

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Vamos ver se amanhã, o mid quarter update da Intel, será, ou não, um catalisador para um rebound.

As tecnológicas, depois de em 2003, terem subido de forma impressionante, muitas delas mais de 100%, têm gradualmente vindo a eliminar esses ganhos desde o inicio de 2004, encontrando-se muitas delas, agora, nos mesmos niveis de preço que no inicio de 2003.

Vou actualizar os gráficos da TXN e da INTC, que são as que tenho vindo a acompanhar, entratanto deixo o gráfico do Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, actualmente na base dum canal descendente iniciado em Janeiro 2004

Fecho de ontem nos sates:
Intel (-1,44%), Texas Instruments (-0,96%) e Applied Materials (-0,63%).

A Texas esteve a perder mais de - 4,5% durante a sessão

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Associated Press
Analysts: Chip Stocks May Bounce Back

Thursday August 26, 7:09 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

Analysts Say Chip Stocks May Bounce Back Despite Suffering Downgrade


NEW YORK (AP) -- Despite the beatings chip stocks have endured during the past few months, some analysts on Thursday hinted a bounce might lurk behind a sector whose shares have been punished on concerns customer demand has withered.

The once high-flying sector has seen shares move decidedly lower in the past month as investors reacted to news that many of the industry's key players are seeing higher inventories. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a key barometer of the sector's health, hit a new 52-week low last week.

But, as November approaches -- traditionally one of the biggest months for semiconductor manufacturing -- some analysts suggest the current period might be the prelude for a sectorwide upswing. A pair of research reports released in the past two days suggest the market might have already peaked, but demand is still out there.

Banc of America Securities analyst John Lau told clients in a report that a mix of excessive inventory, slow economic growth, terrorism concerns and high oil prices caused the chip sector to peak earlier than expected. He cut his rating on Advanced Micro Devices Inc. to "neutral" from "buy," and slashed price targets on Intel Corp., Texas Instruments Inc., Broadcom Corp. and Micron Technology Inc.

"We believe that investors are reacting earlier and more proactively in discounting the semiconductor cycle peak than prior cycles," Lau said in a report. "Although stock prices have come down significantly and currently appear to be inexpensive, we would not be aggressive buyers yet given that estimates for 2005 will likely be revised downward over the next few months."

However, he said there are "opportunities for investors with long-term horizons" and buying industry leaders such as Intel or Texas Instruments would be a safe bet. Many companies will be giving sales updates during the coming weeks, and that might provide more insight as to when the sector might truly begin to bounce back, he said.

Shares of Intel closed down 18 cents at $21.77 and then rose to $21.83 in the aftermarket, while Texas Instruments fell 1 cent to $20.02, and then dropped another cent to $20.01 in after-hours trading. Applied Materials Inc. shares closed down 28 cents at $15.98 on the regular session and later rose to $16.04.

Novellus Systems Inc. closed down 49 cents at $24.65, and then rose to $24.95 in the aftermarket. Broadcom shares closed down 58 cents at $29.23, and later rose to $29.30, while Micron's stock dropped 20 cents to close at $11.83.

Research firm Gartner Inc. said chip revenues remain strong despite concerns about rising inventories, which it believes might be overblown. The company now forecasts a 27.4 percent increase in 2004 global chip revenues to about $226 billion, up from a February forecast of $217 billion.

"Had the increased inventory been accompanied by a flat or even falling semiconductor market, it would have been of grave concern," Gartner said. "In a rising market, increasing inventory levels are normal."

Investors were spooked recently when a number of chip companies reported rising inventories. Intel, the market leader, said inventories had grown 15 percent and cut its profit margin forecast.

Gartner suggested the increase in Intel inventory was because the company was able to make more during the past six months -- not because the bottom was dropping out of the market. The research firm suggested in a report that seasonal demand is expected to rise at the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth -- and that could help lift share prices out of the current sluggishness.